Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 181749
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1249 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

STRATUS HAS ERODED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TEMPORARILY BUT ANOTHER
EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF MN AND WI.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN WI CAUSING
THIS NEW ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS. 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN THE DAKOTAS WITH TEMPERATURES
THERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HEADLINES...HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR
TONIGHT. (HEADLINES/MENTION OF FROST ARE NOT NEEDED ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA AND ILLINOIS AS THAT AREA HAS ALREADY
HAD A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE).

TODAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL DROP INTO NW IL THIS MORNING
SPREADING STRATUS AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM BY NOON WE SHOULD GET INTO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALSO
BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL DAY BUT AT LEAST THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CWA DURING THE EVENING
BUT THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN IL BY SUNRISE. OUR SOUTHEAST
CWA WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR FROST AS THEY WILL EXPERIENCE
THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BEING CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. IN OUR WESTERN CWA SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT WARMER.
I WILL FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S EAST TO THE UPPER
30S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FROST SUNDAY...EXPECT REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR MONDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST...WITH SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS INDICATING A BRIEF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE GFS WASHES
THIS FEATURE OUT AND WITH THE LACK OF CONSENSUS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. BY FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST AREA...
POTENTIALLY BOOSTING AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR TO LOW VFR DECK HANGING ON ACRS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BUT CLEARING/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SEEN ON VIS
SATELLITE LOOP ACRS NORTHEASTERN IA INTO WI HEADED THIS WAY BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CID AND DBQ THE FIRST SITES TO
EXPERIENCE A SCATTER OUT AT 21Z TO 22Z OR SO...BUT MLI AND BRL MAY
NOT CLEAR TIL AFTER 23Z THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST SFC
WINDS OF 6-12 KTS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET WITH
IN-BUILDING SFC RIDGE. A LOW CHC FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG IN VCNTY OF
THE TAF SITES AFTER 09Z TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP VSBYS GOOD FOR NOW
WITH UNCERTAINTY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 7-12 KTS ON
SUNDAY BY LATE MORNING.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     WARREN.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12





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