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000
FXUS63 KDVN 141403
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
903 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WITH SURFACE OBS AND SPOTTER/OBSERVER REPORTS COMING IN WITH ALL
SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA ALREADY AT 9 AM...AND CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION TODAY...I HAVE CHANGED THE PRECIP TYPE IN OUR FORECAST
OVER TO SNOW. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RAIN MIXED AT TIMES...BUT IT
NOW APPEARS THE DOMINANT P-TYPE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW. SOME MODERATE
SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
EAST...AND WILL BE WATCHED FOR ACCUMULATION UPDATES. THUS FAR I
WOULD EXPECT NO LOCATION TO SEE MORE THAN A HALF INCH ON GRASS
ONLY.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

995 MB SFC LOW WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF ROCKFORD IL AT 07Z. STRONG
COLD FRONT WAS EXITING FAR EAST SECTIONS OF CWA. STRONG ISALLOBARIC
MAX AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WHICH HAVE BEEN NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE STRONG WINDS USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR
WITH TEMPS CRASHING THROUGH THE 30S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. RAIN
HAS CHANGED TO SNOW OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST IA WHICH SHOWS UP
NICELY ON KDVN WSR-88D DUAL POL CORRELATION COEFFICIENT (CC) DATA
WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM GALENA IL THROUGH IOWA
CITY IA AT 3 AM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

RAIN/SNOW LINE TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR QUAD
CITIES THROUGH SUNRISE. LIGHT SNOW WITH WEAKENING/STRETCHING
DEFORMATION TO BE FOUND EARLY THIS AM NORTH/WEST OF QUAD CITIES
WITH MINOR ACCUM POSSIBLE MAINLY GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
MEANWHILE FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND
SOUTH/EAST OF QUAD CITIES EARLY AM. ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A LULL IN
PCPN FOR A TIME MID-LATE AM BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS UP ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA TOWARD MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND WITH INCREASING DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF H3 JET AND STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.
HAVE KEPT RAIN OR SNOW PTYPE WITH THIS ROUND OF PCPN BUT MAY BE
PREDOMINATELY SNOW WITH TOP DOWN COOLING AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE
FORCING. GROUND TEMPS STILL PLENTY WARM WITH DVN 4 INCH SOIL TEMP
AT 50 DEGS AS OF 3 AM... BUT PERIOD OF MODERATE RATES COULD
OVERWHELM TO PRODUCE MINOR ACCUM ON GRASSY SFCS. OTHERWISE...
RAW AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON TAP TODAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS AM TO AVERAGE 20-30 MPH AND
CONTINUE USHERING IN THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR... WITH TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ALL AREAS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH TEMPS
FALLING UNTIL MID AM BEFORE LEVELING OFF THEN ONLY NUDGE UPWARD
FEW DEGS AND STAYING MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
TOUCHING LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST OF QUAD CITIES BEFORE PCPN THEN WOULD
EXPECT A DROP BACK INTO THE 30S WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM
PCPN.

TONIGHT...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD EXIT VERY EARLY THIS EVENING FAR
E/SE. THEN...DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND DIMINISHING WINDS
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE... WHICH SHOULD LEND TO GOOD VIEWING OF
LUNAR ECLIPSE /BLOOD MOON/ WITH THE MOON ENTERING THE SUNSET
COLORED SHADOW OF EARTH AT APPROXIMATELY 206 AM CDT. WILL NEED TO
BUNDLE UP THOUGH IF VENTURING OUTDOORS TO SEE ECLIPSE...AS
UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD LOWS IN
THE 20S. PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

MAINLY QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED THEN
PCPN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL UNTIL
THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH WHERE DYNAMICS/MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND.  85H TEMP PROGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 0C KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND MODERATING ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 25 MPH AS SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE PLAINS
AND SUBSEQUENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER IOWA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...COLD FRONT TO TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING CLOSE TO THE MS RVR. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA FOR MAINLY POST FRONTAL RAIN
DURING THE DAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE TO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST NEAR THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY. A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS LIFTING
NORTHEAST AND SPREADING PCPN OVER THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
LATEST 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND WILL WAIT UNTIL THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE RESOLVED TO ADD MORE DETAIL IN FORECAST. AT THIS TIME
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA.

REST OF EXTENDED...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BEYOND THIS...THE GFS HAS A DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER WAVE MOVE OVER THE
PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES OVER THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THIS ATTIM AND WILL KEEP IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND GENERALLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING FILLING
BACK IN WITH STRATOCU WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE FOUND THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE INCREASING LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
JUST SOUTHEAST OF TERMINALS... WITH RAIN LIKELY MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO SNOW. HAVE OPTED FOR VCSH WORDING AT KBRL AND KMLI
BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
AND WINDS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

HEAVIEST RAINS OF GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES FELL OVER NORTHEAST IA PAST
48 HRS. MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE
FOCUSED ON PORTIONS OF THE IOWA...WAPSIPINICON...MAQUOKETA AND
POSSIBLY CEDAR RIVERS. HEAVY RAINS FELL TO OUR NORTH AS WELL AND
SOME OF THIS ROUTED WATER ALONG WITH WATER FROM AREA TRIBS WILL
LIKELY YIELD RISES ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE COMING DAYS AHEAD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 15...

MOLINE.........22 IN 1928
CEDAR RAPIDS...17 IN 1928
DUBUQUE........21 IN 1928
BURLINGTON.....23 IN 1943

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...05
HYDROLOGY...05
CLIMATE...05