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000
FXUS63 KDVN 080949 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED LONG TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
254 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR DETROIT TO CENTRAL MO AND THEN TO
NORTHWEST TX. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIXED WITH BRIEF SLEET WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH QG FORCING IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEANTIME...A FRONTOGENETICAL
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WAS SITUATED ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST CWA.
VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY LOWER TO BELOW 2 MILES. AT 2 AM TEMPERATURES
WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER SEEN
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL GRADUALLY COOL BELOW FREEZING AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TODAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FORCING SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WHICH WILL DIMINISH AND THEN END
THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE A DUSTING AT BEST. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND FORCING IS WEAK ALLOWING
FOR ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE COLUMN FULLY SATURATED. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER TODAY ON NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER
30S FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CWA FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A CHILLY NIGHT IS IN
STORE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO
THE LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY... WITH TEMPS IN SYNC WITH TIME CHANGE AND
SPRINGING FORWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS SUNDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
YSTDY AND MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH FEW L50S SOUTH. WARMTH SUNDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH. WINDS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT THUS BEING A WARMER WIND DIRECTION FAVORED
NEAR TO ABOVE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... WITH LIKELY MANY AREAS
TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. MONDAY EVEN WARMER YET WITH
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OVER CWA AHEAD OF WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH LOOKS TO
SAG INTO THE AREA MON PM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW INVERSION
ALOFT LIMITING MIXING DEPTH AND EXTENT OF WARMUP. NONETHELESS... EVEN
MIXING TO BASE OF INVERSION SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S
WITH SOME L60S SOUTH. SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN LATER FCSTS IS WITH
CONTINUED SNOW MELT REAL POTENTIAL TO MIX NEAR 900 MB... WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT RAISING HIGHS A BIT MORE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTH AND L60S I-80 SOUTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...STILL LARGE MODEL RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES LENDING
TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THIS... IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
THIS PERIOD HARBORS NEXT PCPN CHCS MAINLY FROM TUE PM INTO EARLY WED.
MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS... WHICH AT TIMES PAST FEW DAYS
INDICATED MORE PHASED AND ROBUST STORM SYSTEM CLIPPING MAINLY OUR
SOUTHERN CWA... TONIGHT ARE MOSTLY IN CAMP OF LESS PHASING/DEVELOPMENT
AND ADVERTISE PROGRESSIVE MAINLY LIGHT POST-FRONTAL RAIN TO SNOW EVENT.
POPS KEPT IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS WE AWAIT CONSISTENCY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TRENDS STARTED YSTDY OF INDICATING
SUBSTANTIAL THERMAL MODERATION BACK NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LATE WEEK.
PATTERN SHOWN TO REVERT BACK INTO SPLIT FLOW WITH STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM DOMINANT WITH ENERGY PASSING THROUGH GREAT LAKES THRUSTING
AREA IN WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW HENCE WARMING TEMPS WHILE STAYING
MOSTLY DRY.

WARMING TEMPS MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT AND AN
INCREASED RISK OF BREAK-UP ICE JAMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ON AREA STREAMS
AND RIVERS. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

MVFR CIGS/VIS IN LOW CLOUDS/BR WITH OCNL IFR CIGS/VIS IN -SN THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY THEN LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE