Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 280418 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1115 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT N/NE WINDS TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS
THROUGH THIS AFTN. AS OF 3PM...TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AND DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 30S. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN CHILLY
TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...VALUES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR UNDER 5 KTS. EXPECT LOWS TO
BE COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE LOW TO MID 30S ARE FORECAST
AND PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ARE EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY...JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER
INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MAINLY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CLOUD COVER AT NIGHT WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR ON HOW COOL IT
WILL GET WITH THE LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY FROST MIGHT OCCUR IN SHELTERED
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. FORCING IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...ONE CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH THIRD ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO VERY LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

STARTING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS
DIVERGE ON THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL BIG
PICTURE DOES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES...UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS GOING THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR MORE. SOME
CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE AFTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NO LOWER CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN


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