Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 131153
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
653 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG. THE FOG IS FAIRLY SPOTTY BUT KIIB IS REPORTING
VERY LOW VISIBILITY. THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL LIFT DURING THE
MORNING BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING UNTIL THE SUN BREAKS OUT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE MAIN COLD FRONT FROM MICHIGAN INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
LOWS MOVING ALONG IT. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WERE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH 60S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THROUGH SUNRISE THE BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH. THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE RAIN IS
DECREASING BUT AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCAL 3 INCH AMOUNTS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

AFTER SUNRISE...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE FAR SOUTH WILL EXIT
THE AREA LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID DAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS
THERE BUT THE FORCING IS QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

AFTER SUNSET...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE PLAINS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE LOWER THAN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE FORCING EVEN WEAKER. HOWEVER...SOME SPRINKLES OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

SPLENDID COOL WEATHER AND DRY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE MID
WEEK.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD ON LARGE SCALE WITH
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES AS DEEP TROUGH AND COOL CANADIAN
AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION WITH SLOW MODIFICATION. MINOR CHANGES
IN ALL SOLUTIONS WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF ALL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED TO
ACCOUNT FOR BL MOISTURE IMBALANCES.

MONDAY...BECOMING BREEZY WITH LIGHT PM SHOWERS VERY POSSIBLE AND DEEP
TROUGH AND LOTS OF COLD AIR ALOFT SPILL INTO THE REGION. BL MIXING
SUPPORTS WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. COOL AIR ALOFT
SUGGESTS OVER AT LEAST NE 1/3 AREA FOR POPCORN SHOWERS WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE REACHED. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IF DEWPOINTS
ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. HIGHS NORTH SECTION LIKELY TO BE MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S POSSIBLE AS CORE
OF COOL AIR ALOFT SPILLS SOUTH. A REMARKABLY COOL DAY FOR MID JULY.
MONDAY NIGHT...IF BL WINDS DECOUPLE TO LESS THAN 5 KTS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS SUGGESTED WITH CLEARING. LOCAL TOOLS SUGGEST MINS MAY NEED
LOWERING BY UP TO 3 DEGREES WITH SOME MID 40 DEGREE READING POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED LOCATIONS NORTH SECTIONS. THIS WOULD BE LIKELY BREAK AREA
RECORDS WHICH RANGE FROM 47 AT CID...48 AT MLI...50 AT DBQ AND 52 AT
BRL.

TUESDAY...FAIR AND SPLENDID WEATHER WITH MINOR CHANGES TO AREA TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS AROUND 70F FOR TUESDAY WITH MINS WEDNESDAY AM WITH CALM WINDS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS SUGGEST STRONG DECOUPLING AND INVERSION WITH MINS
BELOW GUIDANCE...POSSIBLY UPPER 40 DEGREE READINGS AGAIN WITH PATCHY
FOG.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FAIR WITH SLOW MODIFICATION AS LARGE SFC
HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. TEMPERATURES RISING ABOUT 3 DEGREES EACH
DAY. LOCAL TOOLS WITH SUNSHINE AND LOW DEWPOINTS SUGGEST HIGHS ARE
A DEGREE OR TWO TOO LOW WITH LOWS 1-2 DEGREES TOO HIGH...OR A
LARGER DIURNAL RANGE.

SATURDAY...ADDED LOW POPS AS NEXT DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ARRIVES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. TIMING OF THE THIS
DISTURBANCE BETTER CLARIFIED THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH LOW RISK OF SEVERE
ATTM DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR TO LIFR ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AT SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
THROUGH 18Z/13 AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN IOWA LIFT. AFT
18Z/13 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z/14. ALTHOUGH NOT
MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM COULD
OCCUR AFT 20Z/13. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTION AFFECTING A TAF SITE IS UNDER 10 PERCENT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08





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