Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 270845
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 AM SHOWS A MOISTURE STARVED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
OVER WISCONSIN ARE RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. VERY MILD WITH NEAR RECORD MILD MINS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. DELAYED MOISTURE FROM SOUTH PLAINS AND WEAKER
SURFACE WAVE TO KEEP FORCING MOSTLY NORTH AND SOUTH OF AREA. UPSTREAM
ENERGY SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH IN CANADA TO MERGE WITH DEEPLY OCCLUDED
LOW IN NE PACIFIC TO MAKE FOR COOLER WEATHER AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NW FLOW PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

TODAY...RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND GUSTY
SW WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH SE SECTIONS.
THE WESTERLY COMPONENT AND MIXING SUGGEST HIGHS AROUND 80F POSSIBLE
SE 1/3 OF FORECAST AREA TODAY OR WITHIN 3 TO 5 DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS
AS SHOWN IN CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. FORCING SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND BRIEF ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM ALONG FRONT AROUND 3 TO 4
PM IN NW SECTIONS. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH.

TONIGHT...MORE DIFFUSE FRONT SUPPORTS A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT IN THE EVENING HOURS AS FRONT
ENCOUNTERS HIGHER DEWPOINTS. LOWS A CHALLENGE WITH CLEARING NW SECTIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER 40S THERE AND AROUND 50F SE SECTIONS. ANY THUNDER
SHOULD MOVE EAST BY LATE EVENING AS FRONT MOVES EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.    NICHOLS


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TUESDAY STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL
AUTUMN POST-FRONTAL DAY WITH BLUSTERY WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...AND POSSIBLE WRAP AROUND STRATOCU AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. HOW FAR SOUTH THIS DECK MAKES IT FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
STILL SOMEWHAT AT QUESTION AFTER BRUNT OF PASSING DRY SLOT WHIRLS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. STRENGTH AND SIZE OF CURRENTLY PROGGED CYCLONE ACRS
THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS SUGGEST THIS DECK COULD ENGULF THE NORTH
HALF OF THE DVN CWA BY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY GET DOWN SOUTH OF I-80
BY EARLY TUE EVENING. FOR NOW WILL NOT BE THAT AGGRESSIVE BUT STILL
INCREASE CLOUDS NORTH OF I80 AS TH E DAY PROGRESSES. DEEP MIXING
POSSIBLY UP OVER H85 MB EVEN IN COOLING PROFILES SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT TEMPS MAY FALL FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND WRAP-AROUND CLOUD DECK
ARRIVES. EXTENT OF CLOUD DECK AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS TO BE AN
IMPACT ON TEMP TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS WELL...BUT WILL PLAY
THEM/TREND COOLER AS IF THE DECK MIGRATES OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA BY
DAWN WED AND SFC WINDS REALLY DECREASE. PASSING BOUT OF BOTH SFC AND
UPPER RIDGING FOR WED FOR A FAIR WX DAY...WEAKER MIXING AND COOLER
AIR MASS FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S. WESTERN INTERMOUNTAIN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION AND PUSH EASTWARD TO DIG BROAD NORTHWESTERLIES ACRS
THE MIDWEST LATER WED INTO THU. 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL
ADVERTISING RIDGE-RIDING WAVE TO CLIPPER IT/S WAY DOWN TOWARD
WESTERN IA AND SW MN WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING/PROCESSES TO THE LEE OF THIS FEATURE PROBABLY TO
DEVELOP A MID DECK OF CLOUDS THAT MAKES IT ACRS THE DVN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN TRYING TO BREAK OUT LIGHT
PRECIP INTO THE AREA. AGAIN SO MUCH DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND MODEL
BIAS BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE RETURN/DEPTH...WILL
KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH 12Z THU.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIGGING CLIPPER WAVE TO CONTINUE ACRS THE CWA
ON THU...AND SAME CONCERNS OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE RETURN TO FUEL
ORGANIZED PRECIP ARE STILL THERE. MAY BE JUST A DECK OF CLOUDS AND
SOME SPOTTY VIRGA OR SPRINKLES MAINLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN SKIRT
OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SPOTTY SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR NOW. WAA CLOUDS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL PROBABLY
HINDER PRE-WAVE LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THU...BUT WILL STILL GO
WITH LOW TO MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST...TO AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER JET STREAM TRENDS AND TROF PHASING STILL ADVERTISED BY THE
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO PAINT A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
ACRS THE CONUS INTO FRI...WITH STRONG CANADIAN SFC RIDGE BUILDING
DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY AND WESTERN GRT LKS. STEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW AT THE H85 MB LEVEL AND ROBUST COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER THE
DIGGING L/W TROF BASE AS WELL THIS PERIOD. POST-WAVE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW VEERING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO COOL ADVECT THU NIGHT
INTO FRI...THU LOWS IN THE 30S AND FRI HIGHS POSSIBLY HELD DOWN IN
THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS AT LEAST SHUNTING ANY PRECIP
GENERATED BY NW GRT LKS UPPER TROF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DVN CWA.
EVEN THOUGH MODELS NOW SUGGEST BRUNT OF H85 COLD POOL/NEG C VALUES/
TO SEEP OFF TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY SAT MORNING...PASSING RIDGE
CENTER AND SFC WIND DECOUPLE COULD STILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPS FRI NIGHT
IN THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND A POTENTIAL HARD
FREEZE WINDOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS UPPER TROF ROLLS OFF TO THE EAST...
PASSING OMEGA UPPER RIDGE TO MAKE FOR  A FAIR WX SAT WITH SOME TEMP
MODERATION...HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THEN THE
WATCH WILL HAVE TO BE ON FOR INCREASING LLVL RETURN FLOW AND
APPROACH OF RIDGE-DEGRADING UPSTREAM TROF ENERGY PULSING ACRS THE
PLAINS. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST STRONG ELEVATED WAA TO INDUCE
SOME SHOWERS BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACRS PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA...BUT WONDER IF THEY ARE BEING A BIT TO AGGRESSIVE WITH
TIMING. IT MAY BE MORE OF A LATER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIP
POTENTIAL...IF SO SUNDAY WARM UP COULD REACH BACK INTO THE 60S FOR
SOME OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
10 TO 15+ KTS THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY. AFTER 27/20Z...COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE DAY THROUGH EVENING
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15+ KTS AND GUSTY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST.
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH WORDING AHEAD OF FRONT... THEN BRING A PERIOD
OF 4-6SM -RA AND MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME POST-FRONTAL BEFORE BEGINNING
TO RETURN TO VFR LATE IN TAF CYCLE AND CONTINUING JUST BEYOND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

RECORD HIGHS FOR OCTOBER 27...

MOLINE.........84 IN 1927
CEDAR RAPIDS...86 IN 1927
DUBUQUE........83 IN 1927
BURLINGTON.....83 IN 1927

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS
CLIMATE...NICHOLS








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