Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 291805
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
105 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

06Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. DEW POINTS WERE
IN THE 30S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S RAN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THROUGH SUNRISE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN DURING THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. STARTING LATE FRIDAY EVENING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY...FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH
AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH. THE DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY HOLD OFF THE RAIN
BUT MOST AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 SHOULD SEE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP
PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY. AREAS SOUTH OF AN KOTM TO KMQB LINE MIGHT
HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

COOL AND RAINY SATURDAY...THEN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...BECOMING
FAIR AND DRY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN THE MAIN ISSUE THIS FORECAST. TRACK
OF LOW MAY DICTATE IF SEE ANY EMBEDDED STORMS AND ALSO IF WE SEE
MAINLY MODERATE AMOUNTS OR POSSIBLY SOME LOWER END HEAVY TOTALS OF
AROUND AN INCH OR MORE. THEN...NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE ISSUES.

OVERVIEW...RUN TO RUN VARIANCE AND PRECIPITATION SPREADS COMBINED
WITH INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SUGGESTS GOING WITH A 70/30
MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF AND GFS.

SATURDAY...COOL...BREEZY AND RAINY WITH A WIDE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION.
FORCING WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO KEEP THINGS DAMP AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FOG FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER. HIGHS WILL BE
QUITE COOL...MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA TO AROUND
60F FAR SOUTH. "LIFT" TOOL DOES SUPPORT ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER TO
AROUND HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR. RAIN TOTALS MOSTLY IN THE 1/3 TO 2/3 OF
AN INCH SUGGESTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO NEAR 1 INCH POSSIBLE. THESE
RAIN TOTALS OVER A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
FOR AREA RIVERS AND JUST MINOR NORMAL PONDING OF WATER. EAST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH OVER ALL BUT FAR SOUTH TO MAKE COOL EVEN MORE OF AN IMPACT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN ENDING WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO ASSESS. MINS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEARING...MAINLY LATE WITH SOME LINGERING
VERY LIGHT RAIN ENDING IN THE MORNING POSSIBLE WITH LOW POPS ATTM. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 DEGREES WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS
TO REASSESS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NICE SPRING WEATHER AND DRY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. THIS IS VERY
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANY ISOLATED PRECIPITATION LATE
IN THE WEEK WOULD BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACTS AND MAY NOT OCCUR
AT ALL FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AT MOST SITES...WITH
A CHANCE TO RAISE TO LOW VFR BY EARLY EVENING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
MAYBE BRL. EAST TO NORTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TO BECOME MORE
EASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AS A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM ROLLS UP INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SAT MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PRODUCE A BAND OF RAIN THAT
WILL MOVE UP FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FROM VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY SAT MORNING. THE RAIN WILL KNOCK CIGS AND VSBYS
BACK TO MVFR...WITH BRL DOWN UNDER IFR CIGS BY SUNRISE SAT. EAST
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY OF 20-25 KTS BY SAT MORNING AS WELL.  ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12



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