Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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077
FXUS63 KDVN 270432
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1132 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Hot and humid weather continues over the south half of the CWA
despite being on the cool side of the front which passed by earlier
today. As of 2 pm, the frontal showers and storms are just clipping
McDonough county, and should be ending by 4. This sets the stage for
a dry night and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Mid clouds will thin and drop south of Iowa this evening, with clear
skies expected after 9 pm in all areas. This will allow for lows in
the lower to mid 60s, and could bring patchy ground fog. This is not
directly indicated by models, but with the north receiving heavy
rains last night, some valley fog may well result in the pre-dawn
hours.

Dry advection will slowly will continue through the night and Monday
as high pressure works into the region and gradually thins out the
high low level humidity levels from recent rains and transpiration.
This will result in comfortable conditions, but still rather warm.
Highs Monday will be similar to today, with mid 80s north to lower
90s south. Dewpoints should hold in the lower to mid 60s through the
day, thus heat index readings will be negligible.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Forecast focus on a mainly dry and pleasant stretch of weather for
late June/early July.

Overview and temperatures:  Northwest flow aloft with an upper level
trough in the east and a ridge in the Rockies. This will allow for a
nice stretch of weather with below normal temperatures and
comfortable humidity for much of this long term.  Highs will be
mainly in the 70s to lower 80s with lows in the 50s to lower 60s for
much of the upcoming week and into next weekend.

Precipitation: For the most part this will be a dry extended except
about the middle of next week. However, the models seem to struggle
with the timing of a cold front that would potentially bring a round
of showers and thunderstorms. The ECMWF suggests this occurring
Thursday night, the GFS Thursday into Thursday evening, and the
Canadian Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Time will tell!

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Generally VFR conditions with clear to mostly clear skies to with light
westerly to northwesterly winds the next 24 hours as weak high pressure
dominates. Patchy ground fog will be possible overnight due to light
winds and possibly trapped low level moisture with visibilities possibly
reduced as low as 2 miles and possibly even a bit less at one or more
terminal until sunrise.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Nichols



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