Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 172354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
654 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017


Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

At 19Z water vapor imagery indicated a potent shortwave trough
over western south Dakota which was moving into and flattening out
the ridge over the upper Midwest. Plentiful cloud cover was seen
ahead of this trough across Iowa as a front was settled in from
south central Iowa into northern Illinois. A few showers had
developed along this boundary by mid afternoon, with areas to the
south seeing an extensive cumulus field.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Today`s forecast focus is on thunderstorm chances yet this
afternoon and this evening. Beyond this evening, cooler weather is
in store for the area following the passage of a cold front.

The frontal boundary that is currently located from south central
Iowa through near KCID to KRFD will be the focus of thunderstorm
activity over the next 6 hours.

The shortwave trough over South Dakota will quickly shift east
into Iowa through 06Z tonight. Ahead of this disturbance, deep
layer shear will increase as has been ongoing already across the
region as 19Z mesoanalysis from SPC indicates 0-6km shear values
now approaching 40kts across much of Iowa from 20kts as was being
measured earlier today. Still questioning when the cap will break
to see if storms can tap into the 2000-3500 J/kg of surface based
CAPE. Forecast soundings indicate this will occur around 21Z.
Assuming this plays out and initiation occurs in the next several
hours thoughts are that cells will be able to organize and
strengthen, keeping a severe threat for the southeast 1/3 to 1/2
of the forecast area. How widespread the threat will be remains to
be seen as cells may be more isolated to scattered in nature.

Later this evening as the shortwave moves closer bringing more
significant forcing, activity will likely increase, but by this
time, the front will have moved south far enough and low level
forcing is focused into portions of Missouri into western to
southwest Illinois, so expectations are for the large line of
significant to severe storms that develops to be south of the
forecast area. While an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, the
primary threats with these storms will be damaging winds and
large hail.

If the initial storms are slower moving or if
there are any training storms, there is potential for heavy rain
as precipitable water values of 1.7 to 1.9 inches are being
observed in the area of concern.

After the front moves through, the airmass will be much changed
with much cooler and drier air taking residence over the area.
Look for highs only in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees with
dewpoints dropping into the 50s and low 60s to make tomorrow feel
much different than the past week. There will be another impulse
of mid-level energy moving across the region on Sunday late
morning through afternoon, so may see enough lift to get some
isolated to scattered showers. Don`t expect much rainfall with any
of this activity, but is enough of a chance to add in a mention of
rain and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

A cool down will be seen for the start of the work week with
temperatures rising back to or above normal the second half of the
week. The overall pattern will see numerous disturbances moving
through in the flow aloft that have the potential to create
periods of active weather.

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen Sunday night as high pressure
quickly moves through the Midwest.

On Monday, an upper level disturbance will move through the area.
Moisture is somewhat limited but there may be just enough to
generate some showers and a few thunderstorms. Temperatures will
average below normal.

Monday night looks to be quiet as another high pressure quickly
moves through the Midwest.

Another fast moving upper level disturbance will move through the
area on Tuesday. Moisture is very limited and the forcing is weak.
However, daytime heating may be just enough to generate some rain

Tuesday night on...

Tuesday night quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area
as another high pressure moves through the Midwest.

On Wednesday, mainly dry conditions will be seen across the area. A
weak disturbance will move through in the flow aloft. The model
consensus has a slight chance to chance pops for areas north of
highway 30.

Wednesday night/Thursday, a more substantial upper level disturbance
will move through the area in combination with returning moisture.
Internally, the models are suggesting an organized thunderstorm
complex will develop across Iowa and move generally east or east
northeast. Where the thunderstorm complex develops and tracks will
be the key to the overall forecast. Right now the model consensus
has chance to likely pops for Wednesday night and slight chance pops
in the far east and south on Thursday for lingering precipitation.

Thursday night into Friday night the models diverge somewhat on
their respective solutions as to what will occur. There is loose
agreement that several rounds of rain will be possible in the form
of organized thunderstorm complexes. Right now the model consensus
has slight chance to chance pops for the entire area.

On Saturday, the model consensus has dry conditions for the area as
high pressure moves through the Midwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Brief preiods of MVFR conditions are possible until 18/04Z mostly at
MLI and BRL terminals due to thunderstorms. Skies will clear with northwest
and VFR conditions at all terminals by around daybreak or earlier as
a cool front passes with winds gusting 10 to 20 kts during the day
on Sunday.





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