Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 240445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1145 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017


Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

A beautiful blue H is sitting right on top of Lowden Iowa this
afternoon. This high pressure is proving full sun, and light
anticyclonic winds rotating around our cwa in a perfect clockwise
pattern. A look just to the west in Iowa shows a tightening
pressure gradient to low pressure in the western Dakotas
developing with gusty south west winds.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Winds will become southerly this evening over the entire CWA and
by morning, southeast winds will begin to increase to breezy
levels from west to east as the high pressure moves to the east.
The initial surge of waa Monday will be without moisture, so only
some thin cirrus is expected until late afternoon. In the mean
time, another good radiational cooling night is in store tonight,
with our forecast undercutting guidance lows by 2 to 3 degrees.
Unlike last night, winds should never go completely calm after
midnight, so frost should not happen. Monday`s winds will blow at
15 to 25 mph, possibly over 30 west during the day. While not a
true fire weather day due to the rapid green up occurring, this
is not a good day to light a fire as moisture return will not be
significant until later Tuesday. Monday`s highs with full to
filtered sun in the well mixed atmosphere, will easily climb to
the lower to mid 70s. ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

..Dynamic weather pattern for the upcoming week..

Monday night... Fair skies are expected with cool temperatures.
Overnight lows will be around 50.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...12Z Sunday model runs forecast Tuesday
to be partly sunny and dry for most of the day.  High temperatures
will be in the low 70s across the northern half of the forecast area
and in the upper 70s over the south. A surface frontal boundary will
approach the region late in the day providing a focusing mechanism
for showers and thunderstorms to develop after dark. The surface
boundary will slow down and become quasi-stationary near Chicago and
extend southeast to near Arkansas.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Surface low pressure will develop in
Missouri along the surface boundary and deepen rapidly as it moves
north toward eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Upper level
forcing will increase as the upper level shortwave strengthens and
becomes negatively tilted late Wednesday. Wide spread rain with
thunderstorms is likely all day on Wednesday through early Thursday
morning. Total rainfall amounts will range from 0.50 to 0.75 inches
with higher amounts in thunderstorms. High temperatures will be in
the mid 50s across the north with mid 60s across the south.

Thursday...Rain will end during the morning as dry air wraps around
the back side of departing low pressure. Temperatures will be cool
with highs in the 50s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s and
low 40s.

Friday thru Sunday...Widespread rain is expected to develop once
again on Friday and continue through much of the weekend. An
energetic longwave trof over the western United States will cut off
as it digs south to the four corners region, creating a broad
southwest flow aloft over the central part of the country. Deep
surface low pressure will develop beneath the closed low and eject
northeast to near Minnesota and Wisconsin by late in the weekend.
There will be abundant moisture available for this system to work
with as the Gulf of Mexico remains wide open. Rainfall amounts are
uncertain at this time. The strength, path and speed the surface low
takes will determine the amounts. Kuhl


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

A ridge of high pressure, providing light winds and mostly clear
skies will push to the east overnight into Monday. This will lead
to stronger south to southeast winds at the surface by afternoon.
With a deep layer of dry air, cloud cover will be limited to thin
cirrus and VFR conditions will remain in place through the
forecast period. There is a potential for low level wind shear
conditions by late Monday night as surface winds decrease under a
30 to 35 kt flow a couple thousand feet above the ground.




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