Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 042326
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
626 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS. HAZE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES LINGERED
ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE.

FOR TONIGHT...HAVE AGAIN FAVORED THE COOLER END OF TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S UNDER A
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BE IN PLACE
TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. LOWS IN THE 59 TO 63
DEGREE RANGE LOOK REASONABLE.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA WILL SHARPEN UP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT IN THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...HAVE TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL BE LACKING A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND AND THERE WILL BE LINGERING HAZE IN PLACE FROM THE CANADIAN
WILDFIRES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90...RATHER HIGHS MORE IN THE 83 TO 87 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING
FRONT.

TRENDS FROM THE MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED SLOWING OF THE FRONT
WITH IT NOT ENTERING THE FAR NORTHWEST/WEST AREAS UNTIL LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...MUCH MORE OF THE AREA WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE ENTIRE AREA MAY
BE DRY MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW
THE BEST FORCING IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH MORE TIME FOR
MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA...THE MODELS ARE LIKEWISE RESPONDING
AND GENERATING MORE RAINFALL. THE GROUND HAS HAD SEVERAL DAYS TO DRY
OUT SO IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SOME IF NOT MOST OF THE RAIN WITHOUT ANY
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

MONDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A
RESPECTABLE AREA OF RAIN. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY END
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SEEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH RAIN
ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI
BEFORE IT STALLS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THE IMPLIED SIGNAL IS FOR THE WEATHER PATTERN
TO TURN MORE ACTIVE AGAIN. THERE ARE MANY VARIABLES IN PLAY THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE TRYING TO GENERATE A DOME
OF HEAT IN THE PLAINS SUGGESTING THE AREA WOULD BE IN OR NEAR THE
TRACK OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. OTHER MODELS DO NOT
SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO.

OTHER VARIABLES IN PLAY WILL BE THE EVENTUAL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
SYSTEMS CHAN-HOM...LINFA AND NANGKA IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC.
DEPENDING UPON WHERE THESE SYSTEMS TRACK AND POSSIBLY INTERACT WITH
EACH OTHER MIGHT BE A FACTOR IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK
AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS NOT A
CONSTANT RAIN. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER THAT MAY BE MANY
HOURS IN LENGTH. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO OBVIOUS SIGNAL IN THE MODELS
SUGGESTING WHEN THESE DRY PERIODS MAY OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY CENTERED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL
MOVE EAST SUNDAY. THE WEATHER WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WITH A POSSIBLE MVFR LIGHT FOG EVENT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
SUNDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. WINDS SUNDAY WILL
BECOME STRONGER FROM THE SOUTH...AROUND 10 KTS BY MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE CLEAR/VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN


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