Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 241128
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
628 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Sfc high pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great
Lakes resulting in a quiet night. Temperatures across E Iowa/W
Illinois were in the 60s under mostly clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Today...Weak 500mb ridging forecast to nudge into the Midwest.
A sfc high will remain centered over the Great Lakes, leading to
light southeast sfc winds and no low-level moisture advection. For
these reasons, sfc dewpoints will stay in the lower to middle 60s
and the humidity level will be fairly comfortable. Temps will
range from the upper 80s southwest to the lower 80s northeast.

Tonight...Low pressure tracking into NW Minnesota will cause sfc
winds to veer to more of a southerly direction. Dewpoints should
climb solidly into the mid 60s for most of the CWA. Have a dry
forecast going due to lack of QG forcing and 850-700mb WAA focused
well to the north over Minnesota. Locally, 850mb heights are
nearly parallel to the isotherms. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The long term forecast period is highlighted by hot and humid
conditions with showers and storms over the weekend, then a cooling
trend with low rain chances next week.

On Saturday, expect highs in the upper 90s to low 90s with afternoon
heat index values pushing the 100 degree advisory criteria,
especially across the southern counties. Have made some minor
refinements to pops, with slight chance pops north in the morning to
account for the potential of a weak ridge-riding shortwave. However,
scattered storms look more favored during the afternoon with
moisture pooling along the leading warm front. CAPE should be
sufficient to support a few strong storms, but the lack of
significant shear is expected to preclude a widespread severe
threat. The entire forecast area remains in the marginal risk area
for day 2. Saturday night will be the most active period with the
passage of a cool front. Storms should be in the weakening phase as
they reach the forecast area with the main issue being localized
heavy rain as precipitable water values push two inches.

On Sunday, lingering showers and storms will exit the forecast area
in the morning. Afternoon temps will be similar to Saturday, but
with drier air pushing in from the northwest, the mid-90 heat index
values should stay confined to the far south and east.

Looking ahead, chances for additional rain are low through the
period as the upper flow transitions to northwesterly. There may be
a window of storms Wednesday into early Thursday south as the ECMWF
advertises a shortwave digging into the region. After highs in the
80s on Monday, temperatures are forecast to drop below normal for
the rest of the period, with highs in the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. High pressure
maintains control over E Iowa/W Illinois through tonight, allowing
for mostly clear skies and light southeasterly winds. Uttech

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The flood watch for the Iowa river at Wapello and Oakville was
cancelled Thursday evening as those points crested below flood stage
and are forecast to continue to fall. The Cedar River near
Conesville continues to fluctuate near flood stage early this
morning. We may be able to cancel the flood warning later today, but
river levels are expected to remain elevated there into early next
week. The Wapsi near Dewitt is forecast to rise slowly through the
weekend, but remain below flood stage.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...Uttech
HYDROLOGY...RP Kinney


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