Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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499
FXUS63 KDVN 281153
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
653 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

...12z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Upper trof on track digging down acrs the northeastern plains and
upper MS RVR Valley this morning. Sfc reflection cool front noted
acrs MN into southeastern SD ATTM, along with a few sfc trofs from
the northern plains down into IL. The incoming trof aloft inducing
low to mid level moisture flux convergence right acrs the CWA ATTM
and producing an increasing amount of sctrd showers and a few
thunderstorms along linear bands.The broad upper trof will then get
established acrs the upper Midwest and GRT LKS and drive the weather
acrs these regions through the upcoming mid week period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Today...Will continue to walk out to the east a few "spokes" or
bands of sctrd showers and embedded/isolated thunder through mid
morning. A few brief passing heavy downpours and possible pea size
hail with the more developed cells. Then becoming mostly sunny today
with some ambient CU under organizing northwest flow. Fcst soundings
mix deep close to H75 MB by this afternoon. This along with some
sunshine will make the most of thermal profiles acrs the area and
help temps warm into the mid to upper 70s acrs most of the area. Sfc
DPTS probably mixed down below model values as the afternoon
progresses. The deep mixing will also make for breezy west to
northwest afternoon winds of 15 to 25 MPH and higher gusts. Another
incoming vort spoke embedded in southwest flank of upper trof aloft,
will look to produce more isolated to wdly scattered showers and
possible thunderstorms during the mid to late afternoon, with the
northern and and northeastern CWA more at risk of this activity.

Tonight...Any lingering cellular CU should decay diurnally for a
mainly clear night. But also ongoing northwest flow aloft and
northwestern GRT LKS upper trof axis may shuttle a few patches of
mid layer AC down toward the CWA after midnight and especially
toward dawn Monday morning. Decreasing winds and mixed down/lowered
sfc dpts will help make for lows in the low to mid 50s for overnight
lows. Calm winds and clear skies could even allow for some upper 40s
in favored cool air drainage locations of the northern CWA as well as
some valley fog.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(Monday through next Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Mild temperatures with slightly below normal temperatures and
essentially dry into Wednesday...then chance of showers and storms.

Long Term Forecast Confidence Assessment...Good or above average.
Once again, little sensible weather issues until late in the week.
Main issue is coverage and amounts of precipitation late in the
week. Trends continue to support area max/min forecasts should be
within 3 degrees of forecast until late in week when precipitation
issue will have greater impacts.

Monday through Wednesday...A few minor changes. Lowered temperatures
some areas a degree or two.  Highs upper 60s to lower 70s and mins
upper 40s to lower 50s.  Cyclonic flow and cold air aloft may kick
off PM light showers in the north with little or no precipitation
amounts.

Thursday through Saturday...chance of showers and storms with
limited instability which would keep any storms below severe levels
as short wave rotates across from the northwest.  Any rain amounts
should be mostly light to locally moderate amounts.  Temperatures
slightly warmer in the 70s with lows in the 50s as northwest upper
flow continues.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Scattered showers/storms and their associated IFR/MVFR conditions,
will continue to move east of the TAF sites early this morning,
with VFR conditions following in behind. Then most of the late
morning and afternoon will be sctrd CU and breezy west to
northwest sfc winds of 10-20 KTS and higher gusts. A low chance
for an isolated shower in the VCNTY of DBQ from mid afternoon
through early afternoon. Tonight, clearing skies again with
decreasing sfc winds to under 7 KTS. Will not put any fog in the
TAFS toward Monday morning for now, as expect drying of the sfc
layer today enough to limit the threat of reduced VSBYs tonight.
  ..12..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

No changes.  Trends and forecast are consistent and indicate rises
continue on the Mississippi River from upstream rains last week.
Crests should occur next 24-36 hours in the north and by Friday in
far south sections. Crests still on track at minor to moderate
stages with very little change in the forecast crest levels in the
past 48 hours.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...Nichols
AVIATION...12
HYDROLOGY...Nichols



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