Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 221736
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE DRY AIR IS HOLDING STRONG ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS PREVENTING
THE CLOUDS IN CENTRAL IOWA FROM MAKING MUCH HEADWAY EAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE WIDTH OF THIS BAND OF CLOUDS IS
SHRINKING WITH THE EASTERN EDGE SLOWLY EVAPORATING AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. THUS FULL SUN IS EXPECTED FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND HELPED EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP TRENDS
AND AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...LOCALIZED DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
PECATONICA RIVER VALLEY AROUND FREEPORT...AND WILL INTRODUCE INTO
FORECAST GRIDS. EARLY MORNING TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30 TO
35 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY.
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING...AND THE DRY GROUND HAS HELPED
TEMPS OVER PERFORM COMPARED TO GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...WILL KEEP TEMPS 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF MORE
ROBUST RUNS...THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
A WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM REACHES EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. HAVE FINE TUNED POPS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AND KEPT POPS
CONFINED MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS...TO A TENTH
OR TWO IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BRINGING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAIN WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN THE
.1 TO .4 INCH RANGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS BUT BECAUSE THE
TREND IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN I WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER AT THIS
TIME. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH THE RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...AND END IN THE
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND RAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN NW IL TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR
SW CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE A SPLENDID PERIOD OF
INDIAN SUMMER WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...
BUT RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE
BUT MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY ON TIMING/INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL WARM ON MONDAY BUT TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SIMILAR IN INDICATING A DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WOULD GIVE THE EDGE TO THE HIGHER QPF OFF THE
ECMWF MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/23 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
PLAINS. NO LLWS IS EXPECTED BUT 0-2KFT AGL SHEAR MAY APPROACH 20
KNOTS AT KCID/KDBQ IN THE HOURS JUST PRIOR AND AFTER SUNRISE. AFT
12Z/23 A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
INTO ILLINOIS BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08






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