Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 152315
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
615 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND COOL FRONT ARE MOVING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST AND CLEARING
SKIES MOVING INTO NORTHERN IOWA. UPPER AIR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WITH FAIR SKIES TO DOMINATE
REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN NW UPPER AIR FLOW PATTERN. LOTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER SW CONUS AND RELATED TO HURRICANE ODILE MAY
IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD. SUBSIDENCE
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR CUMULUS
AND STRATOCUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AROUND OR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNSET. THEN QUIET WEATHER WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.

TONIGHT...SKIES TO BECOME FAIR BY MID EVENING WITH NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH TO BECOME LIGHT NW LATE EVENING UNTIL SUNRISE. LOCAL
TOOLS SUPPORT NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS TO SEE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND HAVE TRIMMED MINS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO. MINS AROUND
40F TO LOWER 40S IN SE SECTIONS.  MINOR CHANCES OF PATCHY FOG IN
FAR WEST DUE TO NW WINDS THAT MAY BECOME LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS. MINS SHOULD BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF
RECORD LOWS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LIMITED BL
MIXING WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SUPPORTS ANOTHER
BELOW NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS MID TO UPPER 60S. THESE HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK THEN
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING DELIGHTFUL LATE SUMMER
WEATHER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WARMING INTO THE LOWER
70S ON THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
MODERATE TO THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ECMWF/GFS HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AS RIDGING ALOFT INTENSIFIES IN
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 70S AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
SATURDAY. ASSUMING THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE TIMING...SATURDAY
STILL LOOKS QUITE WET AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST DECENT GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND ALSO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AS TO WHERE THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL OCCUR. MODELS INSIST ON A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUNDAY LOOKING DRY AND COOLER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES MONDAY AND SURE
ENOUGH THE MODELS WANT TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WOULD DELIVER COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES/
MIDWEST WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS. WHILE CONFIDENCE A WEEK AWAY ISN`T TOO GREAT
IF CORRECT THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING WIDESPREAD FROST TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING AS NORTH WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN MIGRATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...NICHOLS





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