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000
FXUS63 KDVN 020917
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK LOWS NEAR KVIH...KRSL...AND KPIR.
DEVELOPING WARM FRONTS RAN ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
WITHS 30S AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIPITATION DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS
THE FIRST ROUND OF FORCING WEAKENS. THUS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE AND THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.

FROM MID TO LATE MORNING FORCING BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE IS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THAT AS THE FORCING INCREASES...VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH MID DAY.

MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THE FORCING INCREASES FURTHER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO...THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN WILL DECREASE THROUGH MID EVENING. THERE
MAY BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION FROM MID EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD EITHER ALLOW A MIX TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH OR
DEVELOP A MIX PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MIDWEST...BRINGING A
RETURN TO BRISK COLD TEMPERATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WHEN THIS BEGINS...THE FROPA...REMAINS A GIANT TROUBLESOME
DIFFERENCE IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE. THE PERIOD THIS DIFFERENCE WILL
AFFECT IS WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE TWO CAMPS...THE FASTER
NAM/GFS...WHICH MOVE THE FRONT INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE
FAR SLOWER UKMET AND ECMWF WHICH MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ROUGHLY 12 HOUR DIFFERENCE CREATES
POTENTIAL FOR A 20 DEGREE BUST ON TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY. WE COULD
CONCEIVABLY BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND FALL LIKE
A ROCK ALL DAY...OR SHOULD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WORK OUT...AN
AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S COULD BE SEEN IN ILLINOIS. GIVEN
THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF...I STILL FEEL THE FASTER SOLUTIONS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THUS...I WILL GO A BIT MILDER WEDNESDAY
THAN THE FAST/COLD NAM...BUT MUCH COOLER THAN THE SLOW ECMWF. IN
ALL...THIS DAY STILL DOES NOT OFFER MUCH CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN/SNOW...BUT A SMALL POP FOR 0.01 OR SO REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD...WARM SECTORED...WITH 40S
NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THIS AIR HANGS ON
UNTIL THE FROPA...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL CHALLENGE OF WEDNESDAYS
HIGHS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY CRASH...TO THE 20S AND TEENS INITIALLY...BUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE CERTAINLY
LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL FINISH OUT THE
WEEK.  WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO +5 WILL BE FOUND EACH NIGHT FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW POPS ARE RETAINED IN THE SOUTH FOR THE NORTH EDGE OF A POSSIBLE
OVER RUNNING LIGHT SNOW EVENT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT MORE LIKELY OVER RUNNING LIGHT SNOW EVENT APPEARS SET FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN BKN-OVC COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH BASES
AOA 5K AGL THROUGH 02/09Z. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO 2-5K
AGL BY 02/15Z...OR MID MORNING MONDAY. ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR A
LIGHT RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR...MOSTLY LATE MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 02/09Z WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THEN ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MOSTLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34. VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT RAIN MAY FALL TO 2-5 MILES
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS