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000
FXUS63 KDVN 132011
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

ITS RAINING. LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KANSAS...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE QUAD CITIES. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
BEEN MAXIMIZED TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN OVER EASTERN IOWA...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF THE QUAD
CITIES. OTHERWISE...MUCH LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
SO FAR. THUS...WE ARE SATURATED IN THE WEST AND NORTH...BUT NOT IN
THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN TRENDS AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING. WHILE THE NORTHWEST IS PRIMED FOR SIGNIFICANT RUN OFF AN
HAS THE HIGHEST FLOOD POTENTIAL ON AREA TRIBS...THE NORTHEAST MAY
YET SEE PLENTIFUL RAIN...RESULTING IN THE ROCK AND PECATONICA RIVERS
SEEING POTENTIAL FLOODING. I HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THAT BASIN
DESPITE A HIGHER OVER ALL THREAT IN IOWA TRIBS. RAINFALL WILL EASILY
BE 2 TO 3 INCHES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1.0 POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA AFTER 00Z. THIS VOLUME OF
WATER AT LEAST POSES A THREAT FOR MULTIPLE BASINS OVER FLOOD STAGE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD AIR CRASHES INTO THE CWA WITH A CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED. THE GROUND WILL BE WARM...SOPPING
WET...AND AIR SATURATED ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL. THUS I FEEL MODELS
ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE ON COOLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL UNLESS WE ARE IN THE 20S
WHILE IT FALLS. THE LONGER THIS PROCESS TAKES...THE LESS SNOW IS
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT I AM THINKING 1 OR LESS ONLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES WITH NO ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

A LOW CHANCE FOR A MIX WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EAST. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 30S MONDAY. WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 35
MPH...IT WILL BE A VERY UGLY SPRING DAY.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR
EASTERN AREAS BEFORE ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SKIES WILL
SLOWLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET. HOWEVER...THE WET GROUND
IS EXPECTED TO OFFSET SOME OF THE NET COOLING THAT TAKES PLACE.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES MAY VERY WELL APPROACH RECORD LOWS BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DRY BUT CHILLY WILL BE SEE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS
TO WHAT WILL OCCUR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM. SOME MODELS HAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY
WHILE OTHERS BRING IN RAIN EARLIER. TEMPERATURES THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

ON THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOOSE
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THAT FRIDAY WOULD HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAIN.

DEPENDING UPON HOW THE STORM SYSTEM EVOLVES WILL DETERMINE THE RAIN
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. CURRENTLY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...AND
OCCASIONALLY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LIGHTENING RAIN RATES
AND CHANGING OVER TO A SNOW/RAIN MIX. VERY POOR FLYING WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH 13Z MONDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES PAST.
BEYOND 13Z MONDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL
CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FT.
ERVIN


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SO FAR AREA RIVERS HAVE YET TO SEE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REASON FOR THIS IS DUE TO THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A MAJORITY OF THIS RAINFALL SOAKED
INTO THE GROUND.

SOME OF THE RAINFALL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IS FALLING OVER AREAS
THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER...DID
NOT SEE HEAVY RAIN.

AREA RIVERS WILL RESPOND TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE COMING
WEEK. CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS ARE PROJECTING SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
ALL RIVERS FROM THE FORECAST RAINFALL. EXACTLY WHERE AND HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS WILL BE THE KEY AS TO HOW MUCH AREA RIVERS RISE. THERE IS
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERAL AREA RIVERS WILL APPROACH
FLOOD STAGE WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT A FEW WILL EXCEED
FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 15TH

BURLINGTON.....23 IN 1943 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
CEDAR RAPIDS...17 IN 1928
DUBUQUE........21 IN 1928
MOLINE.........22 IN 1928

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-
     ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN
HYDROLOGY...08
CLIMATE...08