Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 162351
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
651 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SLOW CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT OFF LOW WHILE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD EAST FROM
PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA...TO
KCNK...AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROF RAN
AHEAD OF THE LOW FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH
30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED RESULTING IN A CHILLY DAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...SOME SPRINKLES MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES MIGHT BEGIN A SLOW FALL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
DEEPER COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST AND UPSTREAM RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND WESTWARD...WOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WHILE
TEMPERATURES EDGE NEAR TO EVEN ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. LINGERING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND LIFT FROM AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BRUSHING PAST TO THE NORTHEAST SUPPORTS CONSIDERABLE LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST. BREEZY NW WINDS AND
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT COOLING AND HAVE KEPT MINS
FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A MINOR DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP
WITH THE PASSING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY FROST OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WIDESPREAD MINS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD MENTION OF AT LEAST SCATTERED
FROST IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES...BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY BE ONLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-80. NORTH OF I-80 IN EASTERN IA AND NW IL...THE
RECENT OCCURRENCE OF A KILLING FREEZE AND WIDESPREAD FROST HAS
ESSENTIALLY ENDED THE GROWING SEASON. THUS FROST WILL NOT BE
ROUTINELY BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS COOL SEASON.

ANOTHER SURFACE CYCLONE AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT
WEAKER THAN THE SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM...FOLLOWS A TRACK JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SUGGESTING ANOTHER OVERNIGHT DRY
FROPA...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY. WITH THE BULK OF
THE ASSOCIATED COOL AIR STAYING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...DEEP MIXING
SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND THEN WESTERN U.S...AND LARGE BLOCKING LOW OVER
THE EAST...POINTS TOWARD CONTINUED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD FALL
WEATHER. OUR FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 50S MAY TREND UPWARD A BIT IN
LATER FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN INCREASES. THE
LATEST CPC 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK REFLECTS THIS TREND WITH AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
25TH...ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MID TO LATE
EVENING SHIFTING WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY 4-10 KTS TO WESTERLY AT
AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS 14-18 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON
FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN
BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-30 KTS. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ALSO SAG DOWN OVER THE AREA IN
THE WRAP-AROUND ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE... WITH CIGS
LOWERING INTO RANGE OF 2000-3500FT AGL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...05




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