Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 260036
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
736 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS AFTN
WITH MORE EXTENSIVE BAND OF MID CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTHEAST MN
TO NORTHEAST IA OCCURRING JUST EAST OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.
A COUPLE OF VORT MAXES WERE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WITH ONE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN IL... AND ANOTHER SLIDING EWD OVER SOUTHEAST
IA BOTH ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID CLOUDINESS AND EARLY FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES. SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO VORT MAXES HAS AIDED IN
DECREASING CLOUDS AND WITH DRY AIR ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

WEAK UPPER LOW LOOKS TO RETROGRADE OR DRIFT W/SW DURING THE PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REFORMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE WITH TEMPS... WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER... WITH
GREATEST CHALLENGE AND BUST POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS APPEARING TO BE
NEAR TO ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAIN CLOUDINESS BAND
TO RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX... THUS W/SW PORTIONS
OF CWA MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BOUTS OF MOCLDY SKIES GIVEN TRACK FROM
ROUGHLY NEAR KDEH TO KOTM. THIS COULD RESULT IN WARMER MINS AND
COOLER HIGHS OF 2-4+ DEGS OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA. ELSEWHERE... SKIES
GENERALLY PTCLDY TO AT TIMES MAINLY CLEAR. OVERALL FOR TEMPS WILL
HAVE LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S... AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH
WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION... BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE TOO SPARSE
FOR MENTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

DUE TO A LACK OF STEERING WINDS ALOFT...ALL MODELS HAVE THE WEAK
UPPER LOW DOING A SLOW MEANDER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

AS SUCH...A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IF PRECIPITATION
DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE DRY GROUND AND AIR WILL ALLOW LARGER DIURNAL SWINGS IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE. A
NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE FLOW
ALOFT BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MAINLY CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT AGL. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES INCLUSION IN
TAFS AT 00Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






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