National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KDVN 031831
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1231 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

TEMPS RUNNING 1-3 DEGS ABOVE FCST AT MANY SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT
STRENGTHENING MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION. THUS...HAVE PUSHED UP HIGHS
A FEW DEGS MOST AREAS. THE INCREASING MID CLOUDS MAY SLOW OR BRING
TO A HALT THE TEMP RISE ALONG HWY 20 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. ALSO TWEAKED
TEMPS AND SKY COVER (SLOWER ARRIVAL CENTRAL/SOUTH SECTIONS). ALL
PRODUCTS UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

STRONG ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN OMAHA AND SIOUX CITY EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. ASSISTED BY FRESH...DEEP SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES
HAVE PLUNGED BELOW ZERO OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM
-1 AT PRINCETON TO -15 AT BOTH MONTICELLO AND INDEPENDENCE AT 2 AM
ALONG THE WAPSI VALLEY WHERE THE SNOW DEPTH WAS WELL OVER A FOOT
DEEP. RECORDS LOWS FOR TODAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT CEDAR
RAPIDS AND BURLINGTON...WITH RECORDS AT MOLINE AND DUBUQUE LIKELY TO
GO DOWN BEFORE THE NIGHT IS OVER. THESE RECORDS ARE REFERENCED IN
THE CLIMATE SECTION. WHILE WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE
IN-BUILDING  HIGH...EVEN LIGHT NORTH WINDS WERE PRODUCING WIND CHILLS
FROM -20 TO NEAR -30 OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE AS AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL MIGRATE
EASTWARD...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. INITIALLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY CLOUD OVER DURING THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO SW MN...ASSOCIATED
WITH ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY EVOLVES E-SE. THIS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN
MT...WHICH PASSES TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WI TONIGHT.
LATEST FORECAST MODELS DEVELOP LIGHT QPF IN THE WEAK FORCING...WHICH
BRUSHES OUR FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR PERHAPS A DUSTING THERE LATE TONIGHT.

TODAY...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MID MORNING.
WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WELL AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WEAK WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH WIND CHILL INDEX
VALUES INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
RECOVER MUCH TODAY AFTER THE BITTER COLD START. THE INCOMING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER THE STRENGTHENING SPRING SUN...WITH
WIDESPREAD AND RATHER DEEP SNOW COVER AND WEAK MIXING UNDER THE
PASSING HIGH NOT FAVORING MUCH THERMAL RECOVERY EITHER. CURRENT
HIGHS FROM AROUND 5 NORTH TO THE MID TEENS IN THE SOUTH LOOKED
REASONABLE AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS. THIS WILL LIKELY AGAIN
RESULT IN NEW RECORD COOL HIGHS...REFERENCED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.

TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...BUT STILL IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MAINTAINED MINS AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH
TO NEAR 10 IN THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  S/W/S MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PROVIDE FORECAST
CHALLENGES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE FEATURES.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE UP
COMING WEEK WITH THE NEARLY WEST TO EAST FLOW CUTTING OFF THE
INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR MASSES.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONCERNING A S/W TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS/ECM/UKMET AND GEM ALL DEVELOP A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN CWFA TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE S/W AS IT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN MN.  WITH THE BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS POPS WERE
INCREASED TO LIKELIES OVER THE NORTH THIRD.  AT THIS POINT SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  MODELS
ARE ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER S/W MOVING IN ON THE HEELS OF THE TUESDAY
NIGHT FEATURE.  THERE IS LESS CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH
THIS SECOND WAVE.  THE GFS/UKMET MOVE THE VORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECOND WAVE THROUGH NORTHERN MOD WEDNESDAY AND SPREADING SOME LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA.  THE GEM/ECM SOLUTIONS TRACK THE VORT
FURTHER SOUTH KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  HAVE UPPED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
WITH THE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD BETTER CONTINUITY. MODELS HAVE ALSO
TRENDED WARMER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SO TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP SOME
BUT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING WITH EAST WINDS
AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP IN THE AREA.

ANOTHER S/W AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.   SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
WARMER AIR NORTH.  THIS SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S ON THURSDAY AND INTO MID 30S TO LOW 40S FRIDAY.  IT WILL ALSO
MEAN A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES FRIDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTH HALF FRIDAY WITH A
WINTRY MIX TO THE NORTH. KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING  PER THE ECM/GEM SOLUTIONS.  IF THIS VERIFIES THEN
THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MAINLY SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING MAINLY
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR/NORTH OF KDBQ TERMINAL WHERE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS LIKELY.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 3...

MOLINE.........-8 IN 1884
CEDAR RAPIDS...-9 IN 1913
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 2002
BURLINGTON.....-3 IN 1913

RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR MARCH 3...

MOLINE.........14 IN 1893
DUBUQUE........13 IN 1893

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...SHEETS