Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 121758
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1258 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE PLAINS BUT SPANNING MUCH OF THE
CONTINENTAL US DOMINATES THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN. ALOFT... QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. BROAD AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIP FROM NE INTO
WESTERN IA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY IN A WIDESPREAD BUT LOW PRECIP AMOUNT RAINFALL
EVENT. LESS CONFIDENCE IN FOG/FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION AND EXPANSION OF THE OVERRUNNING
PRECIP EVENT ONGOING TO OUR WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATERS UNDER ONE
INCH...WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WILL LIMIT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO A FEW TENTHS. END RESULT IS HIGH POPS FOR A WIDESPREAD
BUT LOW QPF EVENT. SATURATION WILL BE SLOW DUE TO LOW BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS... AND THUS PRECIP ONSET AT THE SURFACE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY TODAY DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
ONSET OF RAIN. EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS RAIN DEVELOPS SHOULD LIMIT
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THIS MORNING...THEN EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
THROUGH THE DAY ONCE PRECIP STARTS.

HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED EARLIER TONIGHT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WARMER GROUND SHOULD KEEP FROST AT BAY
EXCEPT IN PARTICULARLY LOW SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITH EXTREMELY
STRONG COLD AIR DRAINAGE...ALTHOUGH THIS BEARS CLOSE WATCH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY...WITH A LIGHT WIND AND PLENTY OF SUN. A BLEND OF THE
WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE...YIELDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S LIKELY IN THE CLINTON AND FREEPORT
AREAS.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RELATIVELY LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE HEAVY RAIN...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN
THE 60S AGAIN ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

RAIN BAND AND MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING ACRS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 4-6SM RAIN REDUCED VSBYS MOVING EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BY 23Z THIS EVENING...EARLIER AT CID. EVEN AFTER THE
RAIN MOVES EAST...MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST ACRS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST
8 PM CDT...BEFORE BREAK UP AND CLEARING COMMENCES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...NORTH TO NORTHEAST
SFC WINDS OF 7-12 KTS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH MOIST SFC LAYER AND COOLING...SOME MVFR FOG OR EVEN SHALLOW
IFR FOG LAYERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN ESPECIALLY AROUND CID AND BRL.
MAINLY SUNNY/SCTRD CU AT 3K+ FT AGL/ WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
SFC WINDS 4-8 KTS FOR SAT.   ..12..

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR SEP 12 (TODAY)...

DUBUQUE... 53 SET IN 1902
MOLINE.... 55 SET IN 1902

RECORD LOWS FOR SEP 13 (TONIGHT)...

MOLINE.........36 IN 1902
CEDAR RAPIDS...35 IN 1975
DUBUQUE........35 IN 1953
BURLINGTON.....34 IN 1902

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12






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