092
FXUS63 KDVN 070820
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
320 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures and humidity levels are expected this
  week.

- There are periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms
  tonight through Friday, but with plenty of dry periods
  expected as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Through This Afternoon: A typical July day is expected with
highs in the mid/upper 80s and dewpoints in the 60s. It could
definitely be more humid this time of year, so we`ll take the
slight reprieve. High pressure will remain in control through
the day leading to mainly sunny skies and light winds. An
isolated shower or storm could pop up during peak afternoon
heating as MLCAPE builds to around 1000 J/kg west of the
Mississippi River, but with chances under 10% did not mention
in the forecast with this update.

This Evening through Tonight: Convection developing across the
Dakotas into Nebraska during the afternoon/evening will be
tracking to the ESE and could reach western portions of the
outlook area late tonight. Model consensus is for this activity
to weaken as it approaches the area due to waning instability
and weak deep layer shear. Have rain/storm chances increasing
into the 20-40% range through the overnight period, highest
near and north of Cedar Rapids. No severe weather is anticipated.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and storms may be ongoing in the morning
but with an expectation for decreasing coverage with eastward
progression through the outlook area.

Redevelopment of scattered showers and storms during the
afternoon will depend on the track and timing of a potential MCV
(from the decaying Monday night convection) set to reach
eastern Iowa either late Monday night or into Tuesday morning.
If the MCV is still in our area during the afternoon, additional
storms could develop with MLCAPE building to 1000-2000 J/kg.
Forecast deep layer shear is weak, which would preclude a threat
for organized severe storms and SPC has kept the Day 2 Marginal
Risk to the south of the outlook area. Temperatures will be a
little cooler due to more cloud cover, with most areas reaching
the low to mid 80s. For the overnight, expect lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Near normal temperatures and humidity levels are anticipated
through the end of the week with highs in the 80s and dewpoints
in the 60s to lower 70s at times. The next decent chance for
more widespread showers and thunderstorms comes in late Thursday
night and Friday as a shortwave trough tracks through the Upper
Midwest with an associated cold front moving through Iowa and
Illinois. Machine Learning guidance is highlighting Friday with
a potential for strong to severe storms across much of eastern Iowa
and northwest Illinois. Confidence is low on the details regarding
timing and coverage this far out. Stay tuned to the forecast as
we get closer to the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

High pressure will bring tranquil weather with prevailing VFR
overnight into Monday. Low chance for patchy/shallow MVFR fog
at CID and DBQ late tonight into early Monday AM.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Uttech