


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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384 FXUS63 KDVN 091049 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 549 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...12z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms(20-40%) that will be most favorable in the afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorms later Thursday and Thursday night will have the potential to be stronger as a lead shortwave moves into the area. Strong storms with heavy rain again possible on Friday and Friday night. - Seasonal temperatures and humidity levels will continue through the weekend and into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Today...Will continue to watch fog trends through dawn and issue a headline if needed, otherwise will let the fog SPS ride or expand that if warranted. Then the rest of the day looks to be a typical mid July day with temps in the mid to upper 80s, some ambient CU, and isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms, buoyancy bubbles in the afternoon heating. As yesterday, slow storm movement in a low shear/light low to mid level vertical wind profile may allow for very localized heavy rainfall and flooding. Tonight...Any lingering isolated showers or storms will wane early, then much of the night to be a lull period before the watch will be on for for elevated return flow(convergent southwesterly 20 KT H85 MB winds) induced spotty showers and storms late toward dawn. Low coverage and confidence in this sctrd linear line of precip developing however...20 POPs. Some patchy fog possible again in spots and low temps generally in the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Thursday...Ongoing high CAPE airmass of 2000-3000+ J/kg will look to be acted upon by an approaching shortwave in broad west- northwesterlies acrs the mid CONUS. Thus expect an uptick in sctrd storm development as the day progresses, and storm layer effective shear of 20-30 KTs will help the cause for strong to severe storms if convective temps in the upper 80s can be reached. Damaging wind gusts the primary threat, and PWAT`s of 1.5 to 1.8 inches again will fuel locally heavy rainfall and localized ponding water or flooding. The storm threat will continue into Thu night, with ensembles showing a nice plume of 25+ KT southwesterly H85 MB LLJ flow acrs the region with ample THTA-E advection. Friday...Assessing the latest suite of medium range model solutions and ensembles, there is more uncertainty now regarding storm strength and coverage this day. The models have generally slow with the incoming seasonably impressive short wave, possibly keeping the potential for more organized storm systems off to the west of the local area. Closer to home we may have to just deal with sporadic storm development on the remnants of boundaries and discrepancy gradients lingering out of Thu night, if the slower wave progression verifies. Will have to keep solid chance POPs going however, but the target time may be switching to late Friday night and especially Saturday. There may be the scenario of an MCS developing upstream off to the west and then propagating eastward into the area later Friday night into early Sat morning. Then that effects the Sat potential. Saturday through Tuesday...Depending on the progressive nature of the Friday wave as mentioned above, Saturday may be an organized storm day if the models are on track with the slowed progression of the main upper trof. Strong to severe storms look possible if we get the CAPE build-up(no debris or MCS out of Friday night) to go along with stronger shear profiles of 35-45+ KTs. Timing will be everything and will continue to monitor the Friday into Saturday period. Besides the severe threat, ensemble indicated PWAT feed of 2 to 2.3 inches either for Friday and/or Saturday make for flash flooding concerns with the potential rainfall rates that the wind shear and juiced air mass will produce(1-2" an hour). Current timing thinking suggests Sunday into Monday to be a quieter and seasonable period after whatever Fri-Sat system can make it through the region. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Some fog of at least MVFR VSBY`s may still creep into the VCNTY of some of the TAF sites through 8 AM CDT, otherwise a VFR TAF cycle through the period with light sfc winds under a passing ridge of weak high pressure. Will also keep with the idea that while most the area will stay dry today, it will be another day with the chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm to pop up in the heating of the day. Late tonight toward dawn, will have to watch for more patchy fog especially on the IL side, and the chance for a band of sctrd to isolated elevated showers or even a thunderstorm to develop on the convergent nose of a southwesterly LLJ. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ001-002- 007-009-016>018. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...12 AVIATION...12