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000
FXUS63 KDVN 082311
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
611 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

AT 2 PM...CDT...SEASONALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER MONTANA MOVING
SOUTHEAST BEHIND A VIGOROUS LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. NW WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE NOTED WITH PRESSURE FALL PATTERN
SUPPORTING LIGHTER WINDS TOWARD SUNSET. UPSTREAM UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS LOW TO MOVE EAST NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SEASONALLY MILD AND
LOW HUMIDITY WEATHER UNDER A FAIR SKY. FURTHER UPSTREAM SHOWS NEXT
SHORT WAVE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH DIMINISHING NW WINDS TO 3 TO 7 KTS AS SURFACE
HIGH EDGES CLOSER. STRAIGHTFORWARD ANALYSIS OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS INDICATE MINS MOSTLY 55 TO 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
IS 7 PLUS DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JULY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SPLENDID MID SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND
SURFACE HIGH MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA BY LATE PM. HIGHS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF TODAY...OR ROUGHLY 76 NORTH TO
82 DEGREES SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO
THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIRMASS.
12Z/08 HI-RES ECMWF DELAYED AND NOT AVAILABLE FOR THIS WRITING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE
OHIO VALLEY RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WNW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW. EACH WAVE
WILL BRING A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE PATTERN APPEARS
PROGRESSIVE WHICH WOULD PREVENT BACK-BUILDING. ON THE OTHER HAND
BETTER SHEAR MAY INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WITH THE MODELS
HAVING DIFFICULTY TIMING THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND MAY BE OFF BY 12
OR MORE HOURS I WILL KEEP POPS UNDER 60 PERCENT. THESE POPS CAN BE
RAISED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENTS AND CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 70S.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEEP VORTEX WILL DIVE UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH FOR JULY
AND IS PROGGED TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL SEND BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDWEST. FOR NOW CONSENSUS
MODELS INDICATE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND WILL
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS VORTEX.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS BY 01Z THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. IDEAL WEATHER FOR FLYING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN