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000
FXUS63 KDVN 050921
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
321 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

BRRR! ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD QUICKLY INTO THE MIDWEST THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING A RATHER STEADY FALL OF 2
DEGREES PER HOUR. BY 8 AM...WHEN MORNING LOWS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE
REACHED...WE SHOULD SEE LOWER TO MID TEENS WEST TO LOWER 20S EAST. A
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS FLURRIES IS LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS UP
THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES AS OF 230 AM. THIS BAND GENERALLY SUPPORTS
THE EDGE OF TRUE ARCTIC AIR...AS DEWPOINTS TO THE WEST OF IT ARE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
ERVIN

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

TODAYS MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER...AS COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK. CLEARING TRENDS AT LOW LEVELS
SHOULD SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY LATE
MORNING...HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA ALL DAY AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT
TONIGHT. THUS...CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTH HALF MAY BE NON OPAQUE BY
LATE MORNING...INTO TONIGHT...WHILE THE SOUTH SEES A HIGH CONFIDENCE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. AN ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PREVENT ANY VIRGA FROM REACHING THE GROUND TONIGHT IN THE SOUTH AND
WE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. TODAY CLIMATE DAY HIGHS ALREADY
HAPPENED IN ALL SITES. YEP...YOU GUESS IT...WITH THE STEADY FREE
FALL...THOSE 1201 AM READINGS ARE GOING TO BE WAY ABOVE ANYTHING
SEEN DURING THE DAY TODAY.  EXPECT A ROUGHLY 4 DEGREE RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY...WHICH IS RESPECTABLE ONLY IN THAT THE ARCTIC IS
NOT FULLY ESTABLISHED UNTIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
COLDEST NORTHWEST AND MILDEST SOUTHEAST. LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 12 SOUTHEAST SEEM ON TARGET GIVEN THE STEADY 10
TO 15 MPH WIND ALL NIGHT. WIND CHILLS TODAY WILL BE ZERO TO 10
ABOVE...TONIGHTS WILL BE -10 TO ZERO. NO DOUBT METEOROLOGICAL WINTER
IS HERE.

ERVIN


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL. WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE FOR SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING THE FIRST WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE
SEASON TO THE AREA.

SUNDAY ON...
SUNDAY THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. IT
WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE BUT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE AREA STARTING MID TO LATE MORNING AND
OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONCEPTUALLY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS WITH THE
DIFFERENCES BEING WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES AND SNOW BEGINS.

MOISTURE WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIMITED BUT HIGH SNOW/RAIN RATIOS
WILL PRODUCE A DRY FLUFFY SNOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A BEST GUESS IS THAT THE SNOW
WILL LAST AROUND 12 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

THE BIG QUESTION IS SNOW AMOUNTS. APPLYING SOME VERY GROSS
ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING MOISTURE...DURATION...AND SNOW/RAIN RATIOS A
VERY PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SUGGESTS AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. THESE
PRELIMINARY AMOUNTS WILL UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE REFINEMENT OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AND ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS CURRENTLY GIVING CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE POPS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH DROPS INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN A NEW SNOW FIELD
ACROSS THE AREA...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE AT OR BELOW ZERO
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH WIND CHILLS PUSHING 20 BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST 15-30 KTS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND LINGERING TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN WAKE OF ARCTIC FRONT AND LAKE SUPERIOR LOW. SHOULD SEE
GUSTS DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MAINLY MVFR
CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AM WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80. THEN...DECREASING CLOUDS AND RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE AM THROUGH AFTN.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...05