Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 151653

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1053 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018


Issued at 956 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Snow from the clipper has exited to the east at mid morning, but
snow showers and visibility reductions from blowing snow remain in
its wake over much of east central IA into NW IL.

Have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory in our far western and
southern CWA, but will keep it going til its noon expiration
elsewhere based on the on-going snow showers, blowing snow and
road conditions. Wind chills are so far under-performing in the
Wind Chill Advisory area, but still anticipating worsening
conditions by late afternoon and will thus let it ride.


Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Upper disturbance with snow starting to move east with diminishing
snow moving in from the west. Most areas have picked up 1 to 2 inches
of snow which is an inch or two less than forecast. Additional 1 or
less inch expected. Area temperatures starting to crash in west with
singled digits moving in. Now cast tools all support wrap-around
clouds and flurries NE section this PM. Trends suggest advisory
may be able to cancelled early with decreasing snow.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Short term forecast confidence assessment...fair to poor or average
to below average. Main challenge is ending of snow and remaining snow
totals with a half inch or less suggested all but possibly far NW Illinois
today. This may support removal of winter weather advisory early
with snow covered roadways a consideration of when to end.

Today...will keep advisory and wind chills as is but concern as mentioned
above is snow may end early with trends suggesting cancelling Winter
Weather Advisory by mid morning. marginal Wind Chill Advisory NW today
will keep and also ton light for later shift to reassess. Lowest wind
chills should be in the -20 to possibly -25 degree range. Highs in
the east will be early morning with steady to falling temperatures
with west nearly steady all day. Highs could be off also by 3 plus
degrees depending on speed of cold air moving in. Highs low single
digits northwest to upper teens a mean forecast for later shift to
reassess based on cold air timing. Northwest winds of 20 to 30 MPH
will result in low wind chills for a biting cold even southeast.

Tonight...mostly cloudy with isolated flurries still possible for
later shifts to assess. Blustery with northwest winds 15 to 25 mph
with lows 5 below to 5 above. This supports again a marginal wind
chill advisory with northeast sections of advisory possibly removed
if temperatures are a bit higher with current wind speeds or lower.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Tuesday through Friday night: Dry during this time frame with a
warming trend as the upper flow becomes zonal and then southwest, as
a deep trough moves into the western states. High pressure in the
southern states will essentially shut off any gulf moisture. Highs
will be in mainly in the teens on Tuesday warming to the 30s and 40s
by the end of the week.

This weekend: Deep negatively-tilted trough will be pushing into the
Plains and Midwest as the ridge shifts east into the southeast
states. This will rapidly open up the gulf moisture and transport it
northward on a whopping 65-75 knot LLJ depending on which global
model you look at. The Midwest will get under the left exit region
of a powerful h3 jet which will deepen the cyclone out of the
southern Rockies. This looks to be a classic panhandle hook storm
which will be tracking into central IA on Sunday (990mb) and then to
Lake Superior on Monday (984mb). This should be mainly a rain event
for the dvn cwa with some light snow with the wraparound on Monday.
However, too early for any exact details this far out.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Snow showers and blowing snow are affecting the MLI, DBQ and CID
terminals this morning with periods of MVFR and even brief IFR
conditions. Strong northwest winds will continue to produce
blowing and drifting snow for periods of MVFR visibilities this
afternoon. Winds will diminish some tonight and turn more westerly
with continued snow showers and periods of MVFR ceilings and
visibilities. Another round of more widespread light snow may
impact especially the DBQ and MLI terminals late night into
Tuesday morning. Lingering low clouds and flurries suggests
prevailing MVFR conditions from 12z to 18z Tuesday and have gone
with these more pessimistic conditions. Overall forecast confidence
is below average for this period and there is a potential that
conditions could improve to VFR.


IA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for Cedar-Clinton-

     Wind Chill Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon CST Tuesday
     for Cedar-Clinton-Des Moines-Dubuque-Henry IA-Jackson-Jones-
     Lee-Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for Benton-Buchanan-

IL...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for Bureau-Carroll-
     Henderson-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-McDonough-Mercer-Putnam-Rock

     Wind Chill Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon CST Tuesday
     for Bureau-Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-McDonough-Mercer-
     Putnam-Rock Island-Warren-Whiteside.

MO...Wind Chill Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon CST Tuesday
     for Clark-Scotland.



SHORT TERM...Nichols
AVIATION...Sheets is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.