Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 261126
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
626 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

High pressure centered over IA was providing mostly clear skies and
light winds across the region early this morning with temperatures
in the mid and upper 60s. A few sites were beginning to report what is
likely shallow ground fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Persistence will be the rule as high pressure slowly migrates east
over the region today and tonight under a subsident W-NW flow aloft.
Little airmass change, combined with continued evapotranspiration
from mature crops and moisture from recent rainfall will keep
dewpoints in the 60s. This will lead to scattered fair weather
cumulus today and possible patchy shallow fog again tonight. Based
on a blend of observed highs from Monday, and MOS forecast highs for
today, have gone with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Tonight should
be mostly clear with lows again in the lower to mid 60s. Will
continue to watch fog trends early this morning, but based on the
expected isolated and shallow nature of any fog, will leave mention
out of the forecast for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through next Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Wednesday...The CWA will look to remain mainly dry through 00z Thu
in between main convergent convective zones to the north and south.
thermal profiles support seasonable highs generally in the mid 80s
and SFC DPTs in the upper 60s to around 70. The latest 00z run
models suggest a digging northern stream wave out of the northern
plains will help focus convective generation toward the east central
plains and MO RVR Valley by Wed evening. Latest indications and
model trends suggest resultant convective cluster or MCS will then
propagate south to southeastward and mainly stay to the west/
southwest of the area into Thu morning. But secondary bands of
lift may allow for some showers and a few storms to still make it
acrs portions(likely the northwestern fcst area) later Wed night.

Thursday and Friday...Latest trends on 00z run medium range models
continue to suggest slowly digging and rather broad scale upper
short wave trof will make for a more cloudy and cooler period during
these days with occasional showers and a few embedded thunderstorms.
Currently there does not appear much of any support for strong to
severe storms, and rainfall amounts more in the moderate range but
with some duration. In convergent and moist east to northeast llvl
flow, there may be a good chance for some fog Thu night during
periods when the rain lets up. The 00z ECMWF lingers the showers
well into the day Fri but moves them out by late afternoon, while
the 00z GFS back-doors a high down the southwestern GRT LKS sooner,
shunting the overrruning precip west and south earlier for more dry
periods on Fri. Will keep low to moderate CHC POPs for now on Fri,
with seasonably cooler temps in the upper 70s to around 80. Prefer
the dry solution of the ECMWF and light northerly flow from a high
acrs WI for Fri night...with a cloud clear off, some areas could dip
into the upper 50s by Sat morning.

Saturday through next Monday...Besides maybe some isolated to sctrd
showers or a thunderstorm along a convergent zone along a northeasterly
flow Lake MI induced frontal boundary in northwestern IL Sat or
Sunday afternoon...feel the ECMWF`s mainly dry weekend more on
target. Sub-normal high temps Sat to warm back closer to normal on
Sunday. the 00z ECMWF also keeps a main return flow warm front and
nocturnal showers and storms south and southwest of the local area
Sunday night, while the GFS has the same feature further north
acrs IA. Will the uncertainty will go only slight CHC POPS for
Sunday night into Mon morning. Longer range indications suggest
another thermal ridge to build/gather strength up acrs the plains
by early next week. But the local area will look to remain more
under the influence of the western GRT LKS ridging and remain
largely dry thru Mon. That said, can`t rule out some overrruning/
elevated showers or storms possibly skirting acrs the southern CWA
by Mon night. Warming moderation continues into Mon but the Euro`s
highs are cooler than the GFS`s.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

High pressure will provide mostly clear skies and light winds
throughout. Shallow ground fog will again be possible...and have
included a period of MVFR visibilities at all sites early
Wednesday morning. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sheets
SHORT TERM...Sheets
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Sheets



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