Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 140924
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
324 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

A digging short wave riding southeast in the northern plains is producing
increasing clouds that are starting to invade from the west. Initialization
is good and trends are supportive of a light snow event this afternoon
into the overnight hours. Temperatures are in the negative single digits
where skies are clear to around 10F in clouds in the southwest. A strong
upper low in Canada will bring arctic air behind this disturbance with
even colder early next week along with gusty winds and very low wind
chills.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Short term forecast confidence assessment is fair or average. Main issue
is timing and amount of snow to fall. Forcing tools suggest very light
snow and flurries developing early and mid afternoon with most significant
snow to fall between 00Z and 09Z. Widespread 1 to 3 inch amounts are
reasonable at this time.

Today...Skies will become cloudy by mid to late morning over all the
area with flurries and very light snow possible in the west by around
noon. Highs today should be in the upper teens north to the mid 20s
south. Any snow totals should be less than a half west of the Mississippi
River by 5 PM.

Tonight...have delaying issuance of winter weather advisory since marginal
amounts, locations and timing is better decided as collaborated by seven
other offices. A winter weather advisory is possible by day shift if
trends develop as could over mainly NE 1/2 or more sections of CWA.
Best forcing tool suggest mostly 2 to 3 inch amounts along and north
of I-80 corridor and an inch or less along and south of highway 34
in Iowa. Winds will be light southerly at 5 to 15 MPh increasing out
of the west at 10 to 20+ mph west of the Mississippi River around
daybreak on Monday behind cold front. Lows should be early Monday
with crashing temperatures from the west behind the front around 8
AM with low single digits NW to mid teens far SE. Temperatures will
hold mostly in the lower 20s until the mid overnight hours until
front passes.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Monday through Tuesday: Storm system will be exiting our eastern cwa
Monday morning ending the snowfall. Minor if any additional
accumulation is expected. Northwest winds will increase to gusts up
to 35 mph during the day which will produce some blowing snow,
especially in areas that receive at least 2 or 3 inches of snow.
This would be mainly in open/rural areas and a special weather
statement should handle this scenario. What will be needed is a wind
chill advisory beginning about mid morning and lasting to about noon
on Tuesday, as wind chills dip to 25 to 29 below zero. The latest
runs of the global models are now taking the core of the cold air (-
25 to -28c h8) into western IA/eastern NE, so not as brutal as
earlier thought in the dvn cwa. This should keep the 30 below or
colder wind chills to our west. However, will need to monitor if any
changes in the models.

Wednesday through next weekend: Major pattern change takes place
from deep trough east/ridge west to deep trough west/ridge east.
This will bring a warming trend with temperatures pushing into the
40s by late this week into next weekend. Looks dry until next
weekend when a strong storm system impacts the Midwest, but too
early for any details. Above normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation is then expected to continue through the end of
January.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Low VFR ceilings will develop Sunday morning with an increasing SE
breeze. Coverage of initial light snow showers does not warrant
more than a VCSH group at each TAF site during the afternoon. The
main period of snow will be after 02z, with visibilities dropping
to MVFR and ceilings below 2000 ft agl.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nichols
SHORT TERM...Nichols
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...RP Kinney



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