Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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465
FXUS63 KDVN 290756
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
256 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

06z sfc data has a weak low near KDLH. A weak cold front ran south
from the low into western Illinois. Behind the front a weak trof ran
from southeast Minnesota into southwest Iowa. Dew points were in the
60s from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast with 50s across the
Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Through sunrise isolated sprinkles will be possible in the highway
20 corridor west of Dubuque.

On Sunday, dry conditions are expected with temperatures slightly
above normal. A weak disturbance aloft will move through the area
which should result in an small increase in clouds.

Tonight, dry conditions should continue during the evening hours.
After midnight, some isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm
may develop across the far southwest parts of the area as a weak
disturbance moves along the IA/MO border.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Memorial Day through Wednesday will continue to offer up an
unsettled period of moderate instability and moderate forcing for
another daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. Initially Monday
and Monday night, it looks like it will be mainly elevated showers
and storms, with a small potential for solidifying into a small MCS
and translating eastward during the mature process. Severe weather
looks unlikely to affect the region until perhaps Wednesday, when
the main upper trof will become progressive and drive a cold front
through the plains. Until the front arrives, we will continue to see
seasonally humid conditions with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s,
and daytime temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Following the
frontal passage we will enter a stretch of much drier air as a large
surface high builds southward from Canada.

That Canadian high, and upper low pressure looks to bring the
Midwest a spectacular first week of June. The strong sunshine will
help boost highs to the mid to upper 70s Thursday through Saturday,
with dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s. While not defined in
data explicitly, this pattern strongly suggests fair weather cumulus,
and possibly a period of broken cloud cover at times through the
strong heating of a cool airmass. It should not be enough to offset
the June heating though, since no model positions the upper low far
enough west to suggest cloudy skies and stratus.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Surface winds from the southwest will gradually shift to the west
then northwest overnight. There is a low chance for MVFR
visibilities at DBQ around sunrise, but otherwise mainly VFR
conditions will prevail at area TAF sites through the TAF period.


&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...DMD



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