Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 172115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
315 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Issued at 313 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Low pressure was located in northeast Kansas with a warm front
into central MO. Strongest 3hr pressure falls of 4-5 mb were
noted in eastern IA into southern IL. Temperatures ranged from the
upper 30s to mid 40s in the dvn cwa, to the 70s and 80s in the
central and southern Plains.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Forecast focus on strong storm system.

Tonight: Rain will become widespread (along with areas of fog) as
strong low level moisture transport and large scale ascent continue
to spread into the dvn cwa. Continued to mention isolated
thunderstorms in our southern and eastern counties after midnight
when deeper moisture and even stronger forcing arrives. Low
pressure will be tracking across northern MO into central IL,
pulling a strong cold front southeast into the dvn cwa after
midnight. Northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts
to 30 mph behind the front. Lows will range from 34 at
Independence to 43 at Macomb.

Saturday: Will follow the consistent NAMNEST in turning the rain
over to snow in the morning (from west to east) due to dynamic
cooling, similar to the event last Sunday. However, with
temperatures in the mid 30s as the snow is falling, only minor
accumulation is expected on grassy or elevated surfaces. It is
possible a few spots may receive up to 1/2 inch of slushy accumulation.
The roads should remain wet, but visibilities will be reduced in
any heavier bursts of snow. After the snow comes to an end the
temperatures may actually rise several degrees before falling
again later in the afternoon. Northwest winds will gust to 35 to
40 mph during the day as the cyclone deepens as it tracks into the
eastern Great Lakes region by later in the day. The precipitation
will exit our far eastern counties by late afternoon or sunset.
High temperatures should range from the upper 30s to lower 40s,
but wind chills will be in the 20s.

For this event rainfall amounts or water equivalent should total
1/4 to 1/2 inch over much of the cwa, with a few spots possibly up
to 3/4 inch. Haase

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Saturday night, any lingering rain or snow should be east of the far
eastern counties by sunset, with a dry, breezy and cold night to
follow. If there (big IF), is any lingering snow on the ground, some
locally colder temperatures could occur, but for now, will go lower
to mid 20s from north to south.

Sunday will be mainly under the influence of cold high pressure in
the wake of the system, but with the progressive west to northwest
flow pattern in place, strong dry warm advection will result in a
milder day already Monday, in the upper 40s to mid 50s.  The work
week will see several more quick rollor coaster temperature trends,
as northwest flow continues, but no rain or snow chances.  This
results in a cold day again for Tuesday night into Wednesday, as a
1040+ high moves into the plains, but with the progressive pattern,
Thanksgiving looks more mild, with highs back in the 40s.  Other
than some breezy and cold conditions in the transitions, there
should be no travel problems during the Thanksgiving travel period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Widespread IFR/low MVFR conds this afternoon becoming IFR/LIFR
tonight into Saturday morning. Widespread rain this afternoon and
tonight with isolated thunderstorms late tonight in the KBRL
VCNTY. A strong cold front will arrive after 06z/18 shifting winds
northwest at 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. The rain
should turn to snow Saturday morning affecting mainly KCID/KDBQ.




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