Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 011249
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
749 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

AT 315 AM CDT...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
CALM OR LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES VARIED
WIDELY...FROM THE MID 30S IN PARTS OF THE WAPSI RIVER VALLEY...TO
THE LOW 50S AT FORT MADISON AND KEOKUK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FIRE WEATHER
TODAY...THEN CONVECTIVE TIMING/COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT.
FOR FIRE WEATHER DETAILS...SEE SECTION BELOW.

EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...BOOSTING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES SOUTHWEST.
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SUSTAINED AROUND 25-30 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 40
MPH. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST THROUGH 00Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 9 PM...WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND
AS THE RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD. TOTAL QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL BE
HEAVIEST IN EASTERN IOWA...WITH GENERAL AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH
POSSIBLE...LOCALLY HIGHER IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC
MARGINAL RISK AREA HAS BEEN SHIFTED WEST...AND NOW JUST BARELY
TOUCHES THE WESTERN CWA BORDER. PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE
LOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE RETURN OF AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA.  THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE
LONG TERM ARE FLANKED BY THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW WAVES COMING
THROUGH BETWEEN THAT TIME.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BROKEN AND WEAKENING IN INTENSITY.  HIRES ARW
AND NMM SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN LINE OF STORMS WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY
NEAR 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN LINE MAINTAINS ITS BROKEN
STRUCTURE.  THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS THE LLJ MOVES TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.

THE COLD FRONT THEN STALLS OUT TO OUR SOUTH.  WE SEE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.  ANOTHER WAVE IN THE FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.  IN RESPONSE TO CVA...THE BOUNDARY IS PULLED
NORTH.  WHILE MOST OF THE FORCING IS TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE VORT
MAX...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS THE AREA OF BAROCLINICITY IS
USHERED OUT OF THE AREA.  OUR CWA GETS CLIPPED BY THIS SYSTEM.  AS A
RESULT WE SEE RAIN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES PROFILES ARE
COOLER AS COLD AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE ANY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.  I
CANT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES...BUT I THINK THAT WE WILL NOT SEE ANY
ACCUMULATION IF IT DOES SNOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES AND
SURFACE TEMPS ARE TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING TO STICK.

FRIDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT ACROSS
THE AREA BEFORE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY.  THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS CLIPPER ACROSS NE ZONES.

AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST.  A LOW
LOCATED OVER MT EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS
DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AND THUS LEADS TO DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.
REGARDLESS OF THIS DIFFERENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS
TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

EXPECT AN INCREASIN SOUTH WIND TODAY...GUSTING AROUND 30 KTS OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
TAKEN AN INITIAL STAB AT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION...BEGINNING
AROUND 05Z AT KCID...THEN 09Z AT KMLI/KBRL. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER WATCH COUNTIES ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT.
HAVE BOOSTED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SLIGHTLY...SUSTAINED
AROUND 25 MPH/GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...WITH SUPPORT FROM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. MOST MODEL DEWPOINTS VERIFIED TOO MOIST LAST
EVENING...AND HAVE LOWERED VALUES SLIGHTLY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
WHEN MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE WEST. THIS DROP RH
VALUES INTO THE MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. RESULTING GFDI
VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...LENDING ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EAST OF THE RED
FLAG WARNING AREA...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS EXTREME...BUT
THE FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL STILL BE IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
FIRE WEATHER...RP KINNEY






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