Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 171747
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1147 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

ARCTIC FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO EXTREME EASTERN IA AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS STRONGLY INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT IS
MARKED BY A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS BUT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND. NORTHWEST WINDS
WERE GUSTING TO OVER 30 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO MN AND A FEW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY
SO DRESS IN SEVERAL WARM LAYERS OF CLOTHING.

TODAY...THIS WILL BE A REMARKABLY COLD DAY FOR MID NOVEMBER AS A
PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEAR RECORD COOL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED AS MODELS BRING THE -20C 850 MB
ISOTHERM INTO THE DVN CWA. THIS HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE OF
MOST OF THE MODELS FOR DAYS NOW SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH. WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH THIS
WILL REALLY TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH NEAR RECORD COOL HIGHS POSSIBLE.
WIND CHILLS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO AT
MOST LOCATIONS. TO ADD TO THE WINTRY DAY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A DUSTING AT BEST. I HAVE ALSO KEPT THE
MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON DURING THE PERIOD
OF STRONGEST WINDS IN OUR NW COUNTIES...WHERE OVER 3 INCHES OF
SNOW FELL THIS PAST WEEKEND.

TONIGHT...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN WITH
SOME OF THESE RECORDS DATING BACK TO THE LATE 19TH CENTURY!
DEEPENING CYCLONE IN QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL BITTERLY COLD AIR INTO THE MIDWEST.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING OVER 20 MPH MOST OF THE
NIGHT AND SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ZERO TO 7 ABOVE...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DURING THE EVENING THEN PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

A BITTERLY COLD START WILL BEGIN OUR TUESDAY...WITH WINDS AROUND 15
MPH...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE ZERO TO +10 RANGE PROVIDING WIND
CHILLS OF -17 TO -10 OVER SNOW COVERED AREA IN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THROUGH AROUND 10 AM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOVE 7...WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO -12 WILL BE COMMON. WHILE
TUESDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY...PROGRESSIVE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WINDS BLOWING FROM THE WEST AT 12 TO 15 MPH
SUSTAINED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN THEY WILL WEAKEN AND BACK TO
THE SOUTH AS A CLIPPER RAPIDLY MOVES TOWARD WISCONSIN. THIS BRIEF
LULL IN WINDS WITH POTENTIALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO AN EVENING
LOW IN THE 10 TO 15 RANGE IN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. CLOUDS
AND SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATER ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER WORKS THROUGH. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE ECMWF AND GEM...AND I HAVE INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST TO
COVER A QUICK SHOT OF ELEVATED WAA BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS NEXT HIGH DOES NOT APPEAR
AS COLD AS THE CURRENT...NEAR RECORD COLD BLAST.  THIS NEXT CAA
EVENT SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER 20S NORTH...BUT SHOULD ALLOW
THE SOUTH TO SEE LOWER 30S.  SNOW COVER SHOULD BE GONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST 1/2 BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THUS LOWS IN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO IOWA...WHILE ILLINOIS FALLS TO THE LOWER TO
MID TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY APPEARS COLD AGAIN...WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER HEAD THURSDAY NIGHT...AND OVER SNOW...THIS SHOULD
RADIATE OUT TO SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN...POSSIBLY NEAR ZERO IN THE WAPSI
VALLEY. FATHER EAST...LOWER TEENS ARE LIKELY.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT AGREEING ON A LARGE SYNOPTIC
STORM FOR THE MIDWEST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. WITH SNOW COVER LIKELY BEING EATEN AWAY BY SUBLIMATION EACH
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE IS LITTLE REASON FOR SHALLOW COLD AIR
TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS...A COLD RAIN APPEARS
LIKELY...POSSIBLY A MODERATE EVENT FOR THIS LATE IN THE YEAR.
INTERESTING ENOUGH...THE GROUND IS LIKELY GOING TO BE FROZEN IN THE
TOP SEVERAL INCHES LEADING INTO THIS POTENTIAL SYNOPTIC EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH A FEW
FLURRIES...POSSIBLY DROPPING THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 5-6SM AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KDBQ/KCID/KMLI. A W/NW WIND GUSTING AROUND 30KTS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN UP AROUND
11-14KTS OVERNIGHT. MODEL LAYER RH PROGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MORE MVFR CEILINGS BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 17...

MOLINE.........17 IN 1959
DUBUQUE........13 IN 1959

RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 18...

MOLINE.........7 IN 1891
CEDAR RAPIDS...5 IN 1891
DUBUQUE........5 IN 1891
BURLINGTON.....10 IN 1989

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
CLIMATE...HAASE






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