Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 241016
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
416 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

982 MB SFC LOW CURRENTLY STILL DEEPENING AND ROLLING UP ACRS LOWER
MI...WITH WESTERN SIDE DEF ZONE PRECIP SWATHS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST TO THE MS RVR. WILL KEEP HEADLINES GOING AS IS FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT STRONG/NEAR ADVISORY WINDS COMPLICATING
MATTERS WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING...EXCEPT AFTER COORDINATING WITH
NORTHERN AND EASTERN OFFICES...WILL EXTEND THE END TIME OF THE
EASTERN GROUP TO 06Z TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT OF SECONDARY WRAP AROUND DEF
ZONE SNOWS INDUCED BY SECONDARY WESTERN GRT LKS ORBITING LOW/UPPER
TROF...AND ONGOING BRISK WINDS ROTATING DOWN OUT OF WI AND ACRS AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. THE SOUTH HALF OF THIS ADVISORY GROUP/INCLUDING THE I80
CORRIDOR/ WILL STILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER AT THE
ORIGINAL 03Z END TIME. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL GET MOST OF
IT/S ACCUMS FROM NOW THOUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY JUST HAVE
FLURRIES THEN IN THE AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER PROFILES STILL SUPPORT RE-STRENGTHENING WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON TO 20-32 MPH
SUSTAINED...AND GUSTS AT LEAST INTO THE 40-43 MPH RANGE. WIND TO COME
DOWN TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING...BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME
DRIFTING AND LOW BASED BLOWING SNOW IN AREAS THAT CAN GET 2-3 INCHES.
SOME CONCERN THAT WARMED UP AND WET GROUND WILL EAT AWAY AT
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TOTALS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO OCCUR AT
12Z-13Z...WITH STEADY TO SLOW FALL TRENDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA...TO AROUND 20/THE LOW 20S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

OVERALL...GENERAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THIS CURRENT OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MON MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM A HALF INCH UP TO NEAR
AN INCH SOUTH OF I80...1-2 INCHES FROM I80 UP TO MANCHESTER IA...
CLINTON AND STERLING IL. TO THE NORTH OF THAT LINE...2-3 INCHES UP
THROUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN IA INTO NW IL. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACRS
NORTHERN JO DAVIESS AND STEPHENSON COUNTIES WHERE SOME 3+ INCH
AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS CLIPPER SYSTEM
AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH DRY AND
CHILLY CONDITIONS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE CONSENSUS BLEND TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED MONDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE LINGERING MINOR DIFFERENCES IN QPF
PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW TRACK. GENERAL 1 TO PERHAPS 2 INCH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH TO BOOST POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
SUBSTANTIAL...THE QUICK SHOT OF SNOW DURING PRE-HOLIDAY TRAVEL WOULD
NOT BE WELCOME.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A COLD AND DRY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. BASED ON THE PERSISTENT ECMWF...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LIGHT SNOW BRUSHING THE FAR NORTH ON FRIDAY. EXPECT WARMING
TEMPS LATE WEEK...INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY SATURDAY...THEN COLDER ON
SUNDAY.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE WINDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER
EASTERN IA INTO NW IL. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE DRIVEN THE FOG AND DRIZZLE EAST OF ALL THE TERMINALS BY
07Z...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOW CIGS AND THEN LOWERING VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 12Z TO 18Z WHERE IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE IN THE TAFS. SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY LINGERING WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLINTON-
     DUBUQUE-JACKSON-SCOTT.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CEDAR-
     DELAWARE-JOHNSON-JONES-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...SHEETS





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