Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 142006
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
306 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM SHOWS DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS DIGGING VORT MAX FROM CANADA DIVES SOUTH. PRESSURE AND HEIGHT
FALLS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND ACCAS ALL SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. UPSTREAM
ENERGY SUPPORTS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH MORE NICE EARLY FALL WEATHER
THEN IN NW FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AFTER MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
OR FAIR TO GOOD. MAIN ISSUES ARE TIMING ARRIVAL OF AREAS OF RAIN AND
ISOLATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN 12 AM AND 3 AM AND EXITING BY
MID AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TOTALS AND LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WITH
ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT APPEAR A MARGINAL RISK. INITIALIZATION AND
VERIFICATION SUGGESTS SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH
SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY DELAYED ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND RAIN AMOUNTS.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOWS AT OR
BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY RISING AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD AROUND DAWN AS SURFACE
FRONT MOVES INTO AREA. BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE...IF OCCURS AT ALL...ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 BETWEEN
3 AM AND 7 AM.

MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS...MOSTLY ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND CLOUDS SUPPORTS
HIGHS BELOW MOST GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
CLEARING LATE THAN MAY ALLOW NW SECTIONS TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.
OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE .1 TO LOCALLY
NEAR .3 OF AN INCH WITH FORCING TOOLS SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR IN IOWA INTO EXTREME WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TO POTENTIALLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED BRIEF NON-
SEVERE STORM MAY STILL OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR
UNTIL MID MORNING BASED ON MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM
"LIFT" TOOL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
FORECAST FOCUS...DRY AND PLEASANT MUCH OF THIS WEEK THEN A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES START THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL BUT THEN BY THE WEEKEND END UP A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE WEEK
SO TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A GRADUAL MODERATION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 60S WARMING INTO THE 70S TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S WARMING INTO THE
50S AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ECMWF SUGGESTS A MCS FORMING LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT IN WESTERN IA WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION NOTED. THIS MCS
SHOULD THEN PROGRESS INTO EASTERN IA FRIDAY MORNING GRADUALLY
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS
NORTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT DOESN`T APPEARS TO BE AS STRONG
AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A DRY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 60S AT SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15/10Z WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH CIGS AOA 5K AGL TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE. AFTER
15/10Z AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO REDUCE FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OVERALL WITH CIGS 1-3K AGL AND
VSBYS 4-6SM IN LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS





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