


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
150 FXUS63 KDVN 300716 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 216 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms expected this afternoon through very early evening. - The pattern looks less active for much of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Today will be warm and humid, but will see gradual dry advection this afternoon, and with that, heat stress should be quite a bit lower then recent days. The main question today will be whether storms will be widespread or isolated. A short wave associated with the slow moving cold approaching the CWA will move through during the afternoon hours today. This is favorable timing, but with very weak flow at lower levels, it`s hard to find a strong focus for storm development today. The front itself is quite diffuse. We are probably best off looking to the west this morning, timing the storm movement and outflows, and using that short term forecasting to determine storm placement this afternoon. As you can imagine in such a chaotic weak flow environment, models are incredibly diverse on outcomes today. The 00Z NAM/NAMNEST move a strong cluster through the I-80 corridor today, while the HRRR is consistently south and mainly dry, NSSL-WRF widespread, and of course the GFS/EC remain unfocused and non convective. Though storms could be strong due to favorable afternoon CAPE and well above normal PWAT values, I`m inclined to hold pops to the chance range today, given the uncertainties (30-50%). This will focus the higher pops of the day to the afternoon hours, mainly in the south and east 1/2 of the CWA, which is generally where SPC is showing a Marginal (level 1) risk for severe storms. By early evening, any storms remaining should be quickly exiting the eastern counties. Today`s highs with cloud cover issues at times, are expecte to be in the lower to mid 80s, with dew point values falling from the lower 70s to mid 60s by evening. Tonight, a pleasant evening is in store for outdoor activies as dew points continue to fall, and temperatures eventually settle back to the lower to mid 60s. Wednesday, a pleasant summer day is forecast, with mid to upper 80s highs, plenty of sunshine, and moderate humidity. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Thursday, July 4th/Friday and the weekend ahead continue to look warm, with a gradual increase in thunderstorm chances over the weekend. The heat could be near advisory levels, but the signal for high dew point air is not too strong at this point. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s seem on track, with lows in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Light winds and VFR conditions will last most of the night tonight, with cirrus clouds helping keep fog from becoming widespread. However, some MVFR fog is expected towards the sunrise time period, and any clear areas may see shallow dense fog formation. For now, areas north of Highway 20 in Iowa are favored for this fog. A cold front will slowly move through during the morning hours Monday, and an upper level disturbance could bring scattered thunderstorms to the area this afternoon, with the highest chances (30%) along and south of Interstate 80 this afternoon. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Ervin