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000
FXUS63 KDVN 231147
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
647 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Light rain is persisting behind the front across southeast Iowa
but is making steady eastward progress. The forecast has been
updated to better reflect the areal coverage of the rain and the
expected ending time this morning.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

At 07z the main synoptic cold front extended from southern WI
through our northwest CWA including DBQ and CID on southward
into E KS. Showers and storms extended along and ahead of the
front shifting e/se and are likely to exit the far southeast
CWA by 12z-14z. In the wake of the front notably cooler and
drier conditions were being found from the Northern Rockies
into the Upper Midwest. Deepening northwest flow looks to usher
this cooler and drier airmass into our region through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Cold front to exit prior to mid morning taking any showers and
storms with it. Gusty north winds post frontal will continue to
usher in drier and cooler air. Decreasing clouds is expected to
occur this morning, but by afternoon colder air aloft should
contribute to steepening lapse rates and foster cumulus clouds
with more notable coverage over the northern CWA (closer
proximity to H7-H5 cold pocket and strong cyclonic flow) where
a stray brief shower can`t be ruled out mid to late afternoon.
Banking on ample solar insolation and deeper mixing to see temps
recover mostly into the middle 70s to around 80 degrees for highs.

Tonight, with mainly clear to partly cloudy skies and diminishing
winds will see comfortable lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Large and fairly deep polar trough looks to become established
this weekend through early next week from the Great Lakes
region through eastern Canada. NAEFS standardized anomalies for
this incoming airmass at H85 are 2 to 4 standard deviations
below normal by 00z MON with return intervals of every 2 to 5
years, denoting an unseasonably cool airmass. One that may
harbor some record cool in spots if standard deviations of
3+ below normal occur, especially in/around the Great Lakes
region. Highs will likely be in the 60s and 70s SAT-MON with lows
in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

One potential fly in the ointment is the risk of a few afternoon
showers on Saturday across the north with a fairly strong,
compact PV anomaly, and shower chances return again on Sunday PM
mainly north with cold temps aloft and CVA. Neither should cancel
any outdoor activities.

Heading toward mid to late next week is showing signs of
significant pattern change toward a warmer and more unsettled
period, as the flow aloft turns fast zonal. Meanwhile, at the
surface developing and strengthening southerly winds look to
transport moisture northward and should combine for a period of
storminess with one or more convective complexes on the edge of
the heat dome to our southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Rain across southeast Iowa will slowly dissipate through 15z/23. A
passing upper level disturbance may generate isolated rain showers
after 17z/23 that may or may not affect KCID/KDBQ. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions through 12z/24 as high pressure slowly
builds into the Midwest.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...McClure
SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...08