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000
FXUS63 KDVN 010001
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
601 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

WINTER STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMS FOR THE AREA STILL ON
TRACK NEXT 24+ HRS... AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST PHASES WITH DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. COMBINATION OF THE STRONG FORCING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
MOISTURE (PACIFIC AND GULF ORIGINS) BEING ENTRAINED INTO SYSTEM
WITH PWATS 3-4 SIGMA OR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUPPORT
LEND SUPPORT FOR THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMS WITH
NORTH 1/2 OF CWA FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE
THOUGH REMAINS MODERATE ON EXACT AMOUNTS.

TIMING...RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH... WITH SOME AREAS FAR
SOUTH POSSIBLY WAITING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TO CHANGE.

SNOWFALL AND AMOUNTS...SNOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AM WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE IN
THE HEAVIER SNOW. CHARACTER OF SNOW TO CHANGE WITH INITIALLY TONIGHT
MAINLY A WET SNOW THEN TURNING MORE POWDERY ON SUNDAY WITH ARRIVAL
OF COLDER AIR. TRACK OF SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF CWA WITH 850/700 LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA IS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVIEST SNOW
ACCUMS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OR SO OF CWA WHERE STRENGTH
AND DURATION OF MOISTURE AND FORCING SUPPORT 6-11 INCHES. ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA STILL EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS OF 6 INCHES OR
MORE (ESPECIALLY NEAR HWY 34) WITH POTENTIAL FOR DECENT GRADIENT
OR CUTOFF IN AMOUNTS FAR SOUTHERN CWA. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF IN INTENSITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS...LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING TO TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT
AT 5-10 MPH. ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHEAST AT
15-30 MPH WHICH WITH MORE POWDERY NATURE OF SNOW MAY MAKE FOR SOME
DRIFTING AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW MAKING SNOW REMOVAL
CHALLENGING. VISIBILITIES COULD ALSO LOWER BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES.

TEMPS... DROPPING INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT. STEADY EARLY ON
THEN FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WIND CHILLS..DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS EXTENDED
ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF CLIPPERS POTENTIALLY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW OVER
THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP TO
2 INCHES. THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OH WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT STILL OVER THE CWA DURING THE EVENING...WITH NORTH WINDS
CONTINUING TO GUST TO 30 TO 35 MPH. CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING AND SOME
BLOWING SNOW DUE TO THE DRY FLUFFY NATURE OF THE FALLING SNOW. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THE CYCLONE TRACKS FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING AND WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND COLDER/DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP SNOW COVER
SHOULD DROP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BASICALLY REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. THE COLDEST DAYS WILL BE ON
MONDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. THE COLDEST NIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ZERO TO 8 BELOW OVER ROUGHLY OUR NORTHERN HALF...ALONG WITH WIND
CHILLS OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. OUR SOUTHERN HALF SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR ALBERTA CLIPPERS
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN REGARDS TO TIMING/INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

WINTER STORM TO BRING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT.
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL BE MAINLY IFR EARLY IN THE
EVENING...LOWERING TO LOW IFR AND VERY LOW IFR AS THE SNOW LOWERS
VISIBILITIES...WHILE CIGS AND VERTICAL VISIBILITIES LOWER TO A FEW
HUNDRED FEET. SUNDAY...AS THE STORM CENTER PASSES TO THE
SOUTH...WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH
EVEN HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SNOWFALL...ALONG
WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES LIKELY BELOW IFR
AND LIKELY VLIFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR
THE REGION IS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 11 INCHES. HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES FOLLOWED BY DRIFTING SNOW SUNDAY MAY CREATE CHALLENGING
CONDITIONS FOR AIRPORT GROUND OPERATIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-
     VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR DES MOINES-LEE.

IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR SCOTLAND.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR CLARK.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS