Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 291944
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
244 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WAS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS
WITH IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN NW MO THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING CLOUDS. 2 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WAS SPREADING EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

TONIGHT...MODELS SPREAD THE EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR NW
CWA LATER THIS EVENING...REACHING WESTERN IL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS INCREASING
THIS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST. WILL CONFINE THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FROST TO ONLY WESTERN IL AS THAT AREA WILL HAVE THE LONGEST
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ONCE AGAIN...DUE TO CLOUDS
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT THIS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST AND NO
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA.

THURSDAY...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...SHOULD KEEP THIS
EVENT AS SPRINKLES/VIRGA OR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MAINLY A TRACE TO .01 WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO
REACH THE GROUND. THE GFS SEEMS OVERDONE ON MOISTURE/QPF AMOUNTS
AND IS THE OUTLIER. DURING THE AFTERNOON DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO
EASTERN IA WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH STIFF
COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST AROUND 00Z...AND REACHING
THE QUAD CITIES AROUND 11 PM. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CLOUDS...BUT NOT LIKELY MUCH PCPN...AS DEEP SATURATION APPEAR MORE
LIKELY WELL TO THE EAST. WHILE NOT DIRECTLY INDICATED BY MODELS...IT
DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE THAT DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR WITH THE FROPA...BUT
UNTIL THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL I WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY MORNING WILL BE FALLING FAST...REACHING THE
UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST HALF...WITH A STIFF WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO BEGIN
THE DAY FRIDAY. HALLOWEEN FRIDAY WILL BE COLD AND WINDY. THERE IS
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT THE MAIN COLD CORE
ALOFT...REPRESENTED BY -5 TO -9 C AT 850MB...WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
CWA. THE STRONG CAA AND DAY TIME DEPTH OF MIXING INTO THIS COLD POOL
WILL BRING WIND GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...KEEPING WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FRIDAY EVENING...WHEN MANY CHILDREN AND ADULTS WILL BE OUTSIDE FOR
TRICK OR TREAT FESTIVITIES...THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING...BUT
STILL IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40
NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTH...THE CLEAR EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICK DROP TO AROUND FREEZING BY 8 PM...WHICH WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
FOR THOSE OUTSIDE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. BY
MIDNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD...DROPPING
WINDS TO LESS THAN 5 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A VERY HARD FREEZE. BY MORNING...ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO LOWS OF
20 TO 25 OVER THE CWA...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ALL
NIGHT...THIS SHOULD KILL ANY TOMATOES HANGING ON TO LATE SEASON
LIFE...AS WELL AS MANY BUGS.

A COLD AND QUIET WEEKEND AWAITS...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
IN THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WAA TAKES HOLD FOR
SUNDAY. WHILE MILDER SUNDAY...A 10 TO 15 MPH SOUTH WIND WILL MAKE
THOSE UPPER 40S SEEM PRETTY CHILLY...MUCH LIKE TODAY HAS FELT.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF/LOW WILL BEGIN
MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD SETTLE TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR RAIN IN THE MIDWEST. WHILE THERE HAS
BEEN TREMENDOUS MODEL INSTABILITY WITH THIS UPPER LOW TRANSITION
SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE IS NOW BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM THAT THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE SLOW ENOUGH FOR MOISTURE TO
BE DRAWN IN AHEAD OF IT MONDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD
SEE DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN...SHOULD THE SLOWER FROPA
BE CORRECT.

FOLLOWING THE FROPA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...A RETURN TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
BECOMING SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE










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