Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 171729
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1229 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder air will lead to highs in the 30s to low 40s and lows
  in the teens to 20s to start next week. Overall quiet weather
  through this period.

- Temperatures warm again midweek as weather becomes active.

- An active pattern will bring precipitation to the area later
  in the week and into next weekend. Current forecast suggest
  that we will be near the freezing line, so snow could make a
  return to the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

A significant change to the forecast has been done.

Low clouds are far more extensive in the cold advection than
previous thought. Additionally, the cold advection is developing
flurries across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa.

Based on satellite trends and progged thermal fields, we have
raised cloud cover considerably for today/tonight with clearing
occurring on Monday. Flurries have also been added to the
forecast with the trof of the thermal low progged to move over
the area late this afternoon and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

High pressure is expected to build into the area today leading
to quiet weather for the area. Much cooler temps are also in
place leading to a highs in the 30s to 40s across the area.
Winds will again be gusty to near 30-35 MPH gusts this
afternoon. Although, not as windy as yesterday for sure. This
will lead to chilly day across the area. Clouds upstream could
also lead to partly cloudy skies. While we are windy again
today, GFDI values are mainly below Very High for most of the
area. As a result, the fire weather threat today is more
marginal.

Tonight, the coldest of the H85 air moves into the area. This
means that lows in the teens are 20s looks likely area-wide.
Even with things starting to green up around the area, we still
are seeing temperatures more reminiscent of winter, especially
so to start the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Main story in the long term remains unchanged, we begin to
moderate with temperatures through the week but with little in
terms of moisture advection. This means we will see highs in the
50s midweek with lows again in the 30s to upper 20s at night.
Towards the end of the week, the pattern becomes active as a
series of clippers impinge on the area. The exact timing and
track of this systems are uncertain at this time. What does seem
more certain, with medium confidence (40-60%), is that we are
perfectly setup to have the freezing line near or in the CWA.
This means the return to snow as a ptype seems increasingly
plausible for the area. With this line so close to the area,
determining amounts of snow or even if it will accumulate is
incredibly difficult and likely to change a lot before we get
to midweek. I do think we will see more precip to end the week
and into the weekend. Past this period, models develop a deep
trof across the SW and rolls that out, so even if we get some
snow it may not last long as that pattern suggests a warm up to
start next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Winds gusting up to 30 knots will create low level mechanical
turbulence through sunset. This low level mechanical turbulence
will re-appear around 15z/18 as the inversion again breaks and
winds gust up to 25 knots. Otherwise expect VFR ceilings with
scattered flurries.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...08


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