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000
FXUS63 KDVN 141936
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
236 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

MCS THAT HAS MOVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHEAST MO THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. THERE WAS ALSO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST IA.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S ACROSS THE DVN CWA BUT WERE
AROUND 100 IN WESTERN KS. A TONGUE OF 70+ SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDED
FROM EAST TX INTO EASTERN NEB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

FORECAST FOCUS ON INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF A MCS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE DVN CWA ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SHORT WAVE ALSO RIDES THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE TO CREATE VERTICAL MOTION. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
INCREASE TO 1.90 INCHES BY MORNING SO THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN DRY LATELY THE SOILS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB MOST OF THIS RAINFALL SO NOT EXPECTING
HYDRO ISSUES. NONETHELESS SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE RATHER HIGH AND BECAUSE THE
COLUMN MOISTENS QUITE A BIT LATER TONIGHT THE THREAT OF HAIL
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...THE ENTIRE CWA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF A MCS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IN
THE MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENING. HOWEVER...DURING THE
AFTERNOON THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE CWA...AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. DEWPOINTS RISING TO AROUND 70 AND
TEMPERATURES PUSHING TO 80+ AT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD YIELD MLCAPES
OF UP TO 2500 J/KG LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE SO THE KEY WILL BE AMOUNT OF CLOUD DEBRIS LEFTOVER FROM
THE MORNING MCS AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. AT THIS POINT
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHEAST MO
AND WESTERN IL AS TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS
RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S. INTERESTING TO NOTE THE MODELS INDICATE A
50 KNOT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASE THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. OTHERWISE INITIALLY THERE WILL BE A SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL NEAR THE WARM FRONT ALLOWING FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. ONCE AGAIN THE KEY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS
AND PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE UNDER BROAD WSW MID
LEVEL FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE AND SUBTLE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND FOCUSED THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED.  HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE A CONCERN WITH PW/S EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES.  HOWEVER WITH
LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS IN THE LOW LEVELS THE RISK OF ORGANIZED
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOW.  A LOW RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
ALSO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH CAPES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. SUNDAY THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING IN.  KEPT CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND SLIGHTS NORTH WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS STAYING OVER THE AREA AND SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DURING THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A S/W DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA
AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA WITH THIS
FEATURE. THE EARLY DAY TIMING WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH OF A
SEVERE THREAT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITIES WITH THE REGION SITTING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BY
THURSDAY THOUGH THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AS A TROF DEVELOPS/MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
BACK FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

VFR CONDS REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHEAST IA MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. KBRL IS ON THE EDGE OF THE
CLUSTER OF STORMS. OTHERWISE...AT ALL TAF SITES SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN
DIMINISH A BIT SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT THEN BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...HAASE