Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 141143
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
643 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MEANWHILE BACK IN THE PLAINS...SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTER
MANITOBA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALOFT...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN US WITH A STRONG VORT TRAVERSING THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
A SECOND ONE RIGHT BEHIND DROPPING ACROSS ALBERTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AREA OF MID CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND MOVING EAST THIS MORNING
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AT ABOUT 290K.
EXPECT THIS DECK TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AS IT PUSHES INTO
ILLINOIS...BUT SHOULD BE AROUND LONG ENOUGH FOR A SHORT MENTION IN
THE FORECAST EARLY ON. OTHERWISE TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE
FALL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND WEAK
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. HAVE SLOWED POPS DOWN A BIT...WITH RAIN NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE THIS MORNING TO
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS THROUGH THE REGION. THE MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 34. THINKING THIS EVENT WILL
FEATURE TYPICAL 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOST
AREAS...ISOLATED AROUND A HALF INCH. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF UNDERCUTTING MAX TEMP GUIDANCE SEVERAL
DEGREES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TO A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY FRIDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.

LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE STILL INDICATING A
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...INCREASING MOISTURE...AND A
MORE VIGOROUS FRONT THAT COULD PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A MORNING LAYER OF VFR STRATUS CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AGAIN
TODAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 15/06Z TONIGHT BRINGING MVFR
CIGS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO AREA TAF SITES. WITH THE TIMING VERY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIME OF ONSET...
TAF FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR NOW BUT THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE
WITH FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...DMD






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