Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 180524
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1124 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AS A W/NW WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. BANDS OF SHOW SHOWERS HAVE BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 34.
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED DOWN AROUND A HALF MILE IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
WHICH RECEIVED THE HIGHER RECENT SNOWFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE THE ONGOING
SNOW SHOWERS/PATCHY BLOWING SNOW THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD COLD OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...BANDS OF ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 34...BEFORE
TAPERING TO FLURRIES AND ENDING EAST THIS EVENING. IN THE
MEANTIME...VISIBILITIES ARE DROPPING BELOW A HALF MILE FOR BRIEF
PERIODS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA FROM INDEPENDENCE TO DUBUQUE. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT THROUGH 5 PM CST...OUTLINING THE SNOW SHOWERS...BLOWING
SNOW...SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW...AND SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. WINDS
HAVE STAYED GENERALLY JUST BELOW THE SUSTAINED 30 MPH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL STAY UP AT LEAST 10 MPH...AND DESPITE PERIODS
OF POTENTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
COMPLETELY BOTTOM OUT. NONETHELESS...FORECAST LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NEAR 10 ABOVE WOULD BE CLOSE TO OR COLDER THAN THE RECORD
LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 18TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MONDAY. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE
RANGE WOULD BE COLDER THAN THE RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR THE DATE AT
MOLINE AND DUBUQUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE TWO PRECIPITATION
EVENTS.  ONE OF THESE EVENTS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL BRING LESS THAN AN
INCH OF SNOW.  A SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE A
MAJOR AFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.  WPC
SUGGESTS THAT A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IS GOOD FOR THE MASS
FIELDS AND THAT THE SREF AND NAM SHOULD BE GOOD FOR FINE DETAILED
INFORMATION RELATING TO THE FORECAST.  BITTERLY COL TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO MODERATE AND WARM SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AM. WAA AT H85 IN FRONT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS THE
SHORTWAVE ADVECTS THROUGH THE AREA.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE CWFA.

THIS WEEKEND...THE 12Z MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS.  THE
DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS MAKES A HUGE DIFFERENCE WHEN IT COMES TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS WOULD FAVOR MORE FROZEN
PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE EVENT AND THE ECMWF WOULD FAVOR MORE LIQUID
PRECIP.  AS FAR AS WHAT MODEL TO GO WITH...THE GEFS DEPICTS LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF LOWS.  THE OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS
TO BE FASTER AND AN OUTLIER WITH THE GEFS.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
AND WITHOUT ACCESS TO THE ENSEMBLES IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE WHERE IT
LIES.  ONE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE THE AREAS OF 1+ INCHES
OF QPF. AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO GO WITH RASN MIX FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY PM.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE GAMBIT IS
POSSIBLE WHEN IT COMES TO PRECIP TYPE.  AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY
TO NAIL DOWN WHAT THE THERMO ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE AS FAR AS PRECIP
TYPE....SO RASN IS THE BEST OPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. FAIR TO MOSTLY FAIR SKIES TO CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH SOME CLOUD
BASES OF 2-3K AGL AND GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING.
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AROUND 5 KTS TOWARD DUSK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 18...

MOLINE.........7 IN 1891
CEDAR RAPIDS...5 IN 1891
DUBUQUE........5 IN 1891
BURLINGTON....10 IN 1989

RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 18...

MOLINE.........26 IN 1880
DUBUQUE........20 IN 1903

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY






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