093
FXUS63 KDVN 282344
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
644 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid weather continues through Sunday.

- A threat for storms is expected late in the weekend, with the
  highest chances from Sunday evening into the overnight period.
  A few strong to severe storms are possible.

- The pattern looks to dry out for the early to middle part of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Through Tonight: A remnant MCV from nocturnal convection last
night across portions of South Dakota into southwest Minnesota,
was drifting across central to northern portions of the outlook
area this afternoon. This feature has been weakening through
the day and therefore providing little in the way of lift due to
negligible convergence. So far today, there have only been
reports of spotty light rain or sprinkles along the Highway 20
corridor. As we head through the late afternoon and evening
hours, most of the area will stay dry with a very slight chance
for an isolated shower or storm to pop up (less than 15%). Peak
heat indices will reach the mid to upper 90s for most of the
outlook area, holding below Heat Advisory criteria for any
extended period. Continued warm and muggy conditions are
expected tonight with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Sunday - Sunday Night: The morning hours may see some isolated
to scattered higher based showers that back build into the LLJ
axis, but nothing organized. By late morning to mid afternoon, a
dry period should be in place as we wait for the incoming front
from the northwest. This front is likely to bring an organized
line of storms to our north during the day, but will arrive in
our area with less certainty. Many CAMs show convection dropping
more south/southwest into central Iowa during the afternoon and
evening into the primary instability axis, with our area seeing
less activity. Have lowered PoPs for Sunday afternoon with
highest values across the north and west after 3 PM (20-30%).
Better chances for more widespread showers and storms are
anticipated Sunday evening into Sunday night (40-70%, highest
in the west). With PWATS over 1.75", locally heavy rain amounts
will remain possible. Should severe weather take place, damaging
winds seem the main threat. SPC has a Level 2 of 5, Slight Risk
in our northwest and western counties, with a level 1 of 5,
Marginal Risk farther southeast over the remaining CWA
Sunday/Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Monday is a transition day, with cooler air arriving in the
afternoon, and passing energy aloft with the upper trof near our
area. Some additional showers and thunderstorms remain possible
through the day, mainly in the eastern counties. Highs will be
a notch cooler, with mid to upper 80s forecast.

Tuesday through Wednesday continues to be a dry period within our
forecast area as high pressure moves through the region in the
wake of the upper trof Monday. However, beyond that period,
Thursday through Friday may see some activity as warm air at
lower levels builds back into the region, with northwest flow
aloft. This will certainly offer a potential for showers and
storms later in the week, but little certainty in timing or
placement at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR conditions prevail through at least Sunday morning, if not
through the afternoon hours. Dry air in place will help keep
conditions quiet for a while before a cold front moves through
the area Sunday evening into Sunday night. Timing of the front
remains uncertain, and there is the potential for some daytime
thunderstorms to develop, but confidence remains low on the
coverage of this activity as the high-res models are spread out
in this regard. So, we used PROB30 groups to highlight this
afternoon storm threat.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Forecast crests along portions of the Cedar River have continued
trend a bit lower into next week after assessing recent run-
off and a dry forecast over at least the next 24 hours. However,
additional rounds of heavy rainfall are possible on Sunday and
into early next week may result in changes to the timing and
magnitude of the forecast crests. The latest river level
forecasts are only accounting for forecast rainfall (QPF) over
the next 24 hours, again which is mainly dry. With run-off
uncertainty, flow attenuation, and the dry forecast through
Saturday, will maintain the River Flood Watches for now for the
Cedar River at Conesville. Have canceled the watch at Cedar
Rapids as that is now forecast to crest a foot below flood
stage.

Went ahead and issued a flood warning for Marengo. The crest
forecast continues to lower and the timing of initial flood
conditions were slowed. However, with flood stage forecast in
next 24 hrs or so, have gone with the warning.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Schultz
HYDROLOGY...Gibbs/12