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726
FXUS63 KDVN 190446
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1146 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Sprawling high pressure centered in western NC was providing sunny
skies and southerly winds across the dvn cwa. Patchy wisps of
cirrus clouds were noted. Mid afternoon temperatures were very
pleasant, mainly in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Forecast focus on a dry and pleasant short term.

Tonight: Skies will be clear other than some patchy cirrus clouds.
Lows will bottom out in the 40s.

Thursday: Another sunny and pleasant day with highs in the upper
60s to mid 70s.  HAASE

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Forecast focus on rain chances this weekend.

Friday: Pattern becomes much more amplified across the CONUS as a
deepening trough dives into the Rockies, and ridge builds in the
eastern United States. This should bring warmer temperatures into
the cwa with highs pushing well into the 70s to around 80, along
with plenty of sunshine.

This weekend: Long wave trough moves into the Midwest bringing a
period of rain and a few embedded thunderstorms. Shear/instability
is much weaker compared to last weekend so no strong storms are
expected. PWAT`s are forecast to be 1.20-1.50 inches, compared to
near 2 inches last weekend. Moisture transport from the western
Gulf of Mexico will just be getting into the cwa towards Saturday
evening, with most models keeping the heaviest rain south of the
cwa. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1 inch seem likely, with the
heaviest amounts in our southern cwa. The models differ in timing
with the ECMWF keeping much of Saturday dry, whereas the GFS has
the rain spreading across the cwa much earlier on Saturday. The
GFS is also more bullish on rain amounts, up to 2 inches. The rain
should end on Sunday as the cold front pushes east of the area.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s on Saturday, and in the 60s
on Sunday.

Early next week: Pattern change again as phasing carves out a deep
trough in eastern United States, with much cooler temperatures and
a chance of instability showers. Highs will be only in the 50s
with lows dipping into the 30s at some locations.

The Canadian seems to be an outlier at this point depicting a 987 mb
cyclone over the dvn cwa with widespread rain. Will monitor this
trend in later runs of the models.  HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

VFR conditions will prevail overnight through Thursday with a
weak front providing only a shift in direction of the light
surface winds. There is a very low potential for shallow ground
fog around sunrise as winds become nearly calm. Confidence in this
impacting the TAF sites is too low to include in the forecasts.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Sheets