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000
FXUS63 KDVN 151745
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A WINTER-LIKE AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WAS KEEPING
VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. AT NOON...READINGS WERE
STRUGGLING JUST TO REACH 32 ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND THE
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER THE NORTHEAST WAS PRODUCING FLURRIES...AS
REPORTED AT ROCKFORD.

DESPITE THE CU FIELD THINNING AND NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE...THE VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 DEG C OR LOWER AT
12Z WILL LIMIT WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S
SOUTH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CLEAR SKIES MOST LOCATIONS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT VIEWING OF THE
LUNAR ECLIPSE... ALBEIT QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
20S AND NEARING RECORD LOWS AT KDBQ (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH AREA IN LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
/CYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE. SATELLITE AND OBS REVEAL
SCT-BKN HIGHER BASED STRATUS OVER FAR NORTHEAST IA INTO WI
WITH COLD POCKET ALOFT AND VORT MAX DIVING INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTIM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW LIKELY TO SHUTTLE HIGHER BASED STRATUS DOWN ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA...WHILE SOUNDINGS AND CU RULE
SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH HEATING FOR PERIODS OF
BKN COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY...MORE SOLAR INSOLATION SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS. THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING AND DRYING FROM ALOFT
WOULD ANTICIPATE DECREASE IN CUMULUS... THUS GENERALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY TDY WITH PERIOD OF PTSUNNY THIS AM THROUGH MIDDAY NORTHEAST
HALF OR SO. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT SLOW REBOUNDING FROM COLD START
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. BUT WITH
ANTICIPATION OF DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WITH BACKING WINDS COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING SHOULD
COMBINE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SURGE INTO THE 40S... WHILE AN IMPROVEMENT
OVER YSTDY STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL (58-65F). IF CLOUDS PERSIST
THOUGH LONGER THAN EXPECTED THEN POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS STAY IN
THE 30S NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT... CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTHENING IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AFTER A QUICK
DIP IN TEMPS EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT READINGS TO LEVEL OFF
AND THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM
ADVECTION. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE PARCHED THUS ANY PCPN WITH
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
TRACK... OR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY PCPN CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING
A SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS ACROSS THE IOWA-MINNESOTA
BORDER. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS
ATTIM AND WILL BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS FOR ANY CHANGE IN
FORECAST WINDS.  STRONG WAA ALOFT EVIDENT BY 85H WINDS IN EXCESS OF
55 KTS WILL HELP BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NW CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OMEGAS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NW AND
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO
REACH THE GROUND FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TOP DOWN
SATURATING BY THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL PWATS ARE
ONLY IN THE 0.4-0.6" INCH RANGE SO AM ONLY EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PCPN POSSIBLY IMPACTING DIURNAL TRENDS. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. RAIN WILL COME TO END
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING AS
STORM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 5OS/LOW 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OVER THE
PLAINS IMPACTING THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES. LATEST 00Z
MODEL SUITE DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE WAVE THROUGH THE CWA BY 06Z MON
WHERE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE WAVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY HAS CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
MAY CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS AS THE MODELS BETTER RESOLVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES. SYSTEM TO EXIT THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY
AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT...AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 40 TO 50 KTS FROM 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL OVERSPREADING THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP ENOUGH INTERFACE BETWEEN
THESE WINDS AND THOSE AT THE SURFACE TO WARRANT MENTION OF LLWS IN
THE TAFS. BY MID MORNING...WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME GUSTY FROM 20 TO 30 MPH FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 15...

MOLINE.........22 IN 1928
CEDAR RAPIDS...17 IN 1928
DUBUQUE........21 IN 1928
BURLINGTON.....23 IN 1943 AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...11
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...11
CLIMATE...05