Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 281155
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
655 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

The sky was mostly clear overnight, as high pressure continued to
build into the region. A north breeze was under 10 mph at most
locations. Early morning temperatures ranged from the low 60s
along Highway 20, to the low 70s in far southeast Iowa.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Cooler and dry conditions highlight the short term forecast
period.

For today, cooler air will continue to filter into the forecast
area, with 850 mb temps from 8C to 12C from north to south by
afternoon. Expect low to mid 70s northeast and mid to upper 70s
along Interstate 80. Due to the dry ground in the south, have gone
above guidance, with highs into the 78 to 82 degree range. Normal
highs for late June are 81 to 86 across the forecast area.

For tonight, a mostly clear sky and light wind will help lows dip
into the 50s area-wide, about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

Wednesday, high pressure will begin to move east with a moderating
airmass and a modest warm-up from the previous day. Have held the
southern counties above guidance in the low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Wednesday Night...Models are picking up on a vorticity max
approaching from the NW. GFS/NAM more aggressive in extending
isolated showers and thunderstorms into the DVN CWA (west of the
Mississippi R.). ECMWF/GEM, on the other hand, are essentially
dry. Have low confidence on precip coverage above isolated. Thus,
think blended PoPs of 20-30% across the western half of the
forecast area is reasonable.

Many areas likely to remain dry into Thursday morning as it will
be difficult for the upper disturbance to achieve significant
southeastward progress on the heels of a departing area of high
pressure. Additionally, CAPE is only a few hundred J/kg and shear
is low.

Thursday...Increasing humidity, max temps near 80 F, and
approaching cold front leading to chances for showers and storms.
Typical by middle of summer standards, the front will not be
associated with strong low-level convergence or significant height
falls aloft - the parent low is going to track well to the north
through Ontario. But decent 850mb WV transport is noted, and
PWATs may peak near 1.60 inches per the GFS/NAM. The elevated
moisture coupled with weak upper-level ascent downstream of the
mid/upper trough axis will likely generate sct showers and storms.

PoPs at this time are around 40-50%. MUCAPE up to ~2000 J/kg and
0-6 km bulk shear of 35-40 kts could support an isolated strong
storm. Shower/storms chances end late at night. Lows are forecast
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Friday through Sunday...Very pleasant post-frontal airmass during
this period, meaning drier air with dewpoints in the 50s and
slightly below temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The GFS/GEM
try to advect moisture northward faster than the ECMWF. Low end
PoPs for now on Sunday over the SW CWA; however, the ECMWF is
completely dry.

Monday...4th of July...Temps increase a few degrees and it may
feel a little more humid with dewpoints potentially rising into
the 60s. Weak upper-level dynamics and absence of sharp low-level
boundaries will continue the overall low storm threat.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Brief MVFR ceilings may impact KDBQ early this morning. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions with some fair weather cumulus and a
northerly wind under 10 kts.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP Kinney
SHORT TERM...RP Kinney
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...RP Kinney



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