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000
FXUS63 KDVN 241951
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
251 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Another unseasonably cool and breezy day as high pressure over
the northern plains continues to pump refreshing mild conditions
into the Upper Midwest. Temperatures are in the lower 70s with
northwest winds of 15 to 30 MPH. Upstream energy supports below
normal conditions and dry for at least the next 48 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Short Term Forecast Confidence Assessment...good or above average with
main issue once again breezy conditions during the day Sunday and the
risk (if any) of light showers far NE Sunday PM. Area min and max temperatures
should generally be within 3 degrees of forecast.

Tonight...skies will become mostly clear to clear with loss of heating
and subsidence. Northwest winds will diminish to 5 to 10 MPH and likely
around 5 MPH toward dawn. This should allow for area lows to settle
into the upper 40s to around 50F north to the lower 50s south, or over
10 degrees below normal but still 5 degrees or more above record lows.

Sunday...another day similar to today except slightly less wind speeds
and area highs a couple of degrees lower than today or 68 to 75 degrees,
this is 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Low risk of isolated late PM
which with deep mixing and lower dewpoints suggest this may be overdone
by later shifts.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

The long term period starts out ostensibly beautiful with northwest flow,
overall quiet weather, and cooler, drier more Fall like air
across the area. Diurnally driven rain and thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon as a series of clippers, well timed for
afternoon convection sweep through. Later in the period, a
pronounced shift in the pattern leads to active weather across the
area as deep moisture along with SW and zonal flow dominate the
areas weather. The surface warm front will push north towards the
area, bringing warm and humid air.


Monday through Tuesday...Northwest flow will keep the area
gorgeous with the potential of reaching record lows on Sunday
night into Monday morning. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms
will be possible. One of the limiting factors to overall
convection will be the lack of deep moisture. As a result, any
thunderstorms that form will likely lack heavy rain and could have
an increased risk for gusty winds. Tuesday night, high pressure
moves into the area, leading to quiet overnight.


Wednesday morning, begins the first chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the area. This active period of weather will
be more like our summertime events, late afternoon storms, with
mesoscale boundaries with the potential for nocturnal convection.
This pattern will stay in place for the rest of the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

VFR conditions and fair skies to continue. An unseasonably cool air
mass over the northern plains will dominate with northwesterly winds
of 10 to 15 gusts up to 25+ MPH this PM and again Sunday with winds
of 5 to 10 MPH tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Record Lows for June 25...

Moline.........46 in 1979
Cedar Rapids...43 in 2004
Dubuque........41 in 2004
Burlington.....49 in 1974

Record Lows for June 26...

Moline.........48 in 1926
Cedar Rapids...46 in 1928
Dubuque........47 in 2004
Burlington.....50 in 1926

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nichols
SHORT TERM...Nichols
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Nichols
CLIMATE...Gibbs/Nichols