Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 042342
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
542 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK LOW IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. A WARM FRONT
RAN SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN IOWA WHILE A COLD FRONT WAS
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS
AND 20S ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH SINGLE DIGITS OVER
WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH SUNSET. SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOULD LAST
LESS THAN 30 MINUTES AT BEST WITH LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF A
DUSTING.

AFTER SUNSET...LINGERING FLURRIES WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGIN ARRIVING
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY BUT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

TURNING MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLURRIES AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH MAIN
ISSUE CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY WITH ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING MONDAY.  LOCAL TOOLS DO SUGGEST
WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WITH ARCTIC AIR MAY STILL BE AT A CATEGORY OR TWO TOO
MILD FOR LOWS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN NORTH TUE/WED AM AND
WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -20F NEAR DAYBREAK.  HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MAY BE A CATEGORY TOO LOW FOR LATER SHIFTS.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION FAIR WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ISSUES AS LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER MIDWEST AND
UPSTREAM.  BL TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE.  RUN TO
RUN VARIANCE SHOWS LITTLE DIFFERENCES IN THIS REGIME SO A 50/50 MIX
IS REASONABLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MILDER CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MID 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.  A
HIGH NEAR 50 DEGREES MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34
ON SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE
RANGE.  SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH LOCAL FORCING TO SUPPORT LIGHT
RAIN SOUTH AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.  MOST LOCATIONS WOULD LIKELY SEE TRACE
AMOUNTS WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TURNING COLDER AND BLUSTERY AS
ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW.  MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD RECEIVE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF SNOW.  SOME DRIFTING POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED DUE TO LOW SNOW
TOTALS.  SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.  LOWS BY TUESDAY AM MAY BE AT LEAST A
CATEGORY TOO HIGH IF SKIES CLEAR BY MORNING WITH SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE NW SECTIONS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLD WITH FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY 15F TO 25F AND MINS SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH MINS
LIKELY AT LEAST A CATEGORY TOO MILD.  BLUSTERY ON TUESDAY WITH NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 30+ MPH AND LOW WIND CHILLS NEAR TO BELOW ZERO.

THURSDAY...FAIR AND WARMER AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING.  HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 20 TO UPPER 30S AND MINS
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EARLY THIS EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 01Z-04Z WITH SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST ON WINDS WITH ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN CIGS NORTH OF I-80 ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES... WHILE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-80. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE
VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05


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