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000
FXUS63 KDVN 222013
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
313 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING AN OCCLUDED LOW JUST WEST OF
MKE WI...WITH SECONDARY FEATURE DRAPING BACK TOWARD WATERLOO. SFC
PRESSURE RISES INCREASING ACRS NORTHWESTERN IA...WITH A FALLS MAX
PUSHING ACRS THE HEART OF THE GRT LKS. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP
WAS INDICATING CLOSE UPPER LOW ACRS NORTH CENTRAL IA ATTM WITH A
SLOW GYRATION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WANTING TO OPEN UP. LLVL
COLD CONVEYOR EVIDENT ON WESTERN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE WITH TEMPS
IN THE 50S ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

TONIGHT...EXPECT SCTRD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT SHOWERS TO
NOT BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACRS THE NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF
THE DVN CWA OUT OF MN/WI NOT TIL AFTER 03Z AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PIVOTS AROUND THE PARENT TROF AND THEN DOWN ACRS THE CWA AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. FORCING AND COLUMN SATURATION SUGGEST A FEW
AREAS NORTH OF I80 MAY GET UP TO 0.15 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY
12Z THU...OTHERWISE THE MAJORITY OF AREAS TO RECEIVE UNDER A
TENTH. TOP-DOWN DRYING FROM THE NORTHWEST NOT AS AGGRESSIVE LOOKING
ON CURRENT 12Z FCST SOUNDING PROGS AS YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...THUS WILL KEEP ALL SHOWER WORDING OR A HYBRID OF SHOWER-
LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO DRIZZLE. BUT THERE MAY STILL
BE LIGHT PRECIP SIMILAR TO DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ALONG HWY 20
TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD...TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THURSDAY...AS UPPER WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TOP-DOWN
COLUMN DRYING REALLY TAKES GRIP OF THE REGION...LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST/DECAY AS WELL BY LATE
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING MIDDAY AND
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN BACK DOOR HIGH TO
DUMP DOWN THE WESTERN GRT LKS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THU
AFTERNOON...WITH INCOMING GRADIENT AND MIXING CAUSING VEERING WIND
PROFILES TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TO MIX TO 10 TO 20 MPH DURING
MIDDAY AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND DROP OFF AND DECOUPLE
COMMENCES TOWARD THU EVENING. SOME HIGHER GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THU AFTERNOON AS WELL. INCOMING COOL AIR MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THU...BUT EXPECT AFTERNOON INSOLATION
AND DEEPER MIXING TO PRODUCE SOME UPPER 60S OR EVEN A 70 IN A FEW
SPOTS.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A BENIGN AND COOL PATTERN...AND
TRANSITION TO AN ACTIVE AND GRADUALLY WARMER WEATHER REGIME FROM THE
WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARE WELL
JUSTIFIED BY MODEL DATA AND ANALYSIS.

THIS COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY...AND THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE A STELLAR FRIDAY.  COOL AIR ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS...AND
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...THUS THE INTENSE SUNSHINE OF LATE MAY SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THERE ARE POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES
IN THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN ECMWF...AND
THE MORE NORTHERLY GFS/CANADIAN/NAM.  THIS SEEMS TO STEM FROM HOW
THE ECMWF DIFFERS IN HANDLING HOW MUCH ENERGY IS SPINNING AROUND THE
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE. IN THE WAKE OF THE SUPER ENERGETIC EAST
COAST LOW...HIGH PRESSURE IS STRONGER IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THUS...A
MORE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY PLACEMENT. SO IT BECOMES A QUESTION ON HOW
MUCH RAIN POTENTIAL WE HAVE...MAY BE ANSWERED MORE DIRECTLY BY
FINDING HOW MUCH OF A HANDLE MODELS HAVE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE. TOSS IN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT MODELS ARE
OVERDONE INITIALLY ON MOISTURE IN THE PLAINS DUE TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CROP PROGRESS...AND IT SEEMS TO ME WE HAVE LESS CAPE AT LOW
LEVELS THAN ANY MODEL SUGGESTS TO OUR SOUTH...AND THERE IS GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR A DOMINANCE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THUS...A
SOLID MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ELEVATED STORMS
THROUGHOUT IOWA AND ILLINOIS FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO AT
LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP  POPS MAINLY BELOW LIKELY RANGES AT
THIS POINT DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD ONLY BE RESTRICTED TO THE 50S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IF IT IS A TOTAL WASHOUT. THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY...AND WILL GO LOWER 60S TO MID 60S SATURDAY...AND MID 60S
TO AROUND 70S SOUTH SUNDAY. AFTER THIS...WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE
MORE NORTHERLY GFS/GEM AND GO MILDER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS RISING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

WRAP AROUND LOW VFR TO MVFR CLOUD DECK TO CONTINUE ACRS ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCTRD SHOWERS STILL YET POSSIBLY TO POP
UP. OTHER SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL IA WILL TRY TO
ROTATE THIS WAY AROUND MID/UPPER LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL IA/MN BORDER REGION. THE CLOUD DECK MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER MVFR TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS OR RAIN
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS WELL IN THE VCNTY OF CID AND DBQ
AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THEY PIVOT SOUTHEAST AROUND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THIS ACTIVITY THEN MOVING TOWARD MLI AND BRL THROUGH THU MORNING. SOME
IFR DECKS POSSIBLE AFTER 02Z TONIGHT IN VCNTY OF ALL TERMINALS...
WITH 3-5SM FOG AND MIST WHERE THE RAIN LETS UP. GENERALLY A WEST
WIND THOUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE IT VEERS TO THE NORTH AS THE
OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS BY
LATE THU MORNING AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW ACRS THE GRT LKS SHOULD
HELP CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.    ..12..


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...12