Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDVN 250231
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
831 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WELL DEFINED SWIRL ON KDVN 88D NEAR KMXO MARKED AN AREA OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY AND A SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WAS SLOWING LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
REGION. AREA RADARS SHOWED AN AXIS OF SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THIS
FEATURE FROM SW WI INTO NE IA SPREADING SOUTHEAST. BASED ON
OBSERVED VISIBILITIES IN THESE SNOW SHOWERS...A QUICK QUARTER TO
HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS LIKELY. AS THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST...THESE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 30
CORRIDOR. WITH W-NW WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS...AT LEAST LOCALIZED BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BE AN ISSUE.
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO KEEP SOMEWHAT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THUS WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING OVER FAR
EASTERN IA INTO NW IL THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTH AND SW ALONG THE TIER OF
COUNTIES IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW AND
WINDS HAVING DECREASED SOME...HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME A WELL ORGANIZED ~976 MB
SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN QUEBEC.  THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS SO
BROAD INITIALLY THAT AN UPPER JET OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WAS ABLE TO KEEP A LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DRAPED WELL TO THE SW
OF THE LOW...ALL THE WAY BACK TO EASTERN IOWA. AS THE RESIDUAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE SLIDES EASTWARD TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AND BRING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ON TUESDAY...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

TONIGHT...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES AS HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO
SNOW-COVERED AND ICY ROADWAYS. SCT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

-FZDZ ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTN
QUICKLY CHANGED BACK OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS IN CLOUD ICE CRYSTALS
WERE REINTRODUCED ABOVE 800 MB THANKS TO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/STRIP OF VORTICITY OVER CENTRAL IOWA. THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP WEAK DCVA IN THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL COUPLE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO ENHANCE THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR MAY PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A HALF INCH BEFORE 9 PM.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 20S AND INTO THE TEENS. NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRYING AFTER 03Z/TUE...SO SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED AFTER THIS TIME AS THE LOW STRATUS DECK
BEGINS TO BREAK UP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

QUIET AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA VERY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY WITH SNOW
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN THE HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO ONLY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM THE
FALLING SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE FAR SOUTH AREAS WILL INITIALLY SEE
SNOW DURING THE MORNING THAT CHANGES INTO A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.

SOME VERY PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
SUGGEST AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS EAST OF A DUBUQUE TO
GALESBURG LINE. WEST OF A DUBUQUE TO GALESBURG LINE AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY WEST
OF A MANCHESTER IOWA TO MEDILL MISSOURI LINE.

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON MONDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WARM AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA
SHOULD RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW AT CID...DBQ AND MLI EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG
WEST WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...DOWN TO
12 KTS OR LESS BY DAYLIGHT TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT THE AREA ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLINTON-
     DUBUQUE-JACKSON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-
     JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SHEETS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.