Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 222059
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
259 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM DEPICTS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN TEXAS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS VERIFYING
AT LEAST AS STRONG AND AS MOIST AS SOLUTIONS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOWER END HEAVY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY. MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
UPPER MIDWEST PRODUCING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PAST 24 PLUS HOURS
THAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS TEXAS SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE OR FAIR TO
GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN ISSUES INCREASE IN FOG...DRIZZLE AND RAIN
WITH POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER BIGGEST QUESTION. WIDESPREAD
.5 TO 1.25 INCHES OR RAIN TO FALL OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD EXPECTED.
SOME RISK OF TRAINING OF RAIN ANY CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER 1.5 INCHES.

TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THAT COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING. DRIZZLE
AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME SIGNIFICANT AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVEN LIKELY MORE TOWARD MORNING. LOWS SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING
FROZEN GROUND TO MELT AS HAS HAPPENED PAST 24 HOURS REDUCING ANY WATER
ISSUES. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL ALSO AID IN ANY REMAINING
MELTING OF FROZEN GROUND.

SUNDAY...LARGE AREAS OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AM AND
NOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH AREAS OF FOG BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. RISK OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL NEED TO BE RECONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS. LOCAL TOOLS
SUGGEST HEAVIEST .4 UP TO NEAR 1 INCH AMOUNTS MOST AREAS TO FALL OVER
3 TO 6 PLUS HOUR PERIOD...MAINLY MID DAY TO LATE AFTERNOON...THIS WOULD
LIMIT ANY WATER ISSUES. THE REMAINING .1 TO .25 INCHES TO FALL OVER ANOTHER
1-3 HOUR WINDOW EARLIER IN MORNING...POSSIBLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIFT
(LIGHTNING PROBABILITY) TOOL SUGGEST MID DAY EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE IF SYSTEM IS A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE TREND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO SNOW EVENTS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING
WITH FOG EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SLOWLY CHANGE THE RAIN TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE ALL SNOW ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX ENCOMPASSING THE CENTRAL THIRD AND THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD STILL BE ALL RAIN.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT SUNRISE MONDAY. WIND GUSTS
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 35 MPH.

ON MONDAY...THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WIND GUSTS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY MAY BE 35 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES.

A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT MAINTAINING THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 BY SUNSET MONDAY. HIGHWAY 30 DOWN TO A GALESBURG TO
OTTUMWA LINE...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. SOUTH OF A
GALESBURG TO OTTUMWA LINE A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

THE SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF SHOULD BE A DUSTING
AT MOST.

ON TUESDAY...DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TIMING ON THIS EVENT WILL BE CRITICAL BUT CURRENT
INFORMATION SUGGESTS A SNOW EVENT FOR THE AREA. STORM
TRACK...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
IMPORTANT REGARDING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT IT APPEARS THAT
SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MOSTLY LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT DBQ TERMINAL TO REDEVELOP BY
MID TO LATE EVENING AND LAST NEXT 24 HOURS IN FOG...VERY LOW CLOUDS
AND DRIZZLE WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. AT CID TERMINAL...MOSTLY
MVFR BECOMING IFR/LIFR BY MID EVENING TONIGHT WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE AFTER 23/05Z. AT MLI/BRL TERMINALS...MVFR CONDITIONS BY
LATE EVENING TO BECOME IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE OVER
OUR COLD GROUND WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS
AFTER 23/18Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS





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