Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 161747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1247 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017


Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

An area of mid-level clouds moved into southern Wisconsin and far
northern Illinois during the early morning hours. Otherwise, the
sky was clear. Early morning temperatures across the area ranged
from 36 to 42 degrees.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Quiet weather will continue through the short term period. Early
this morning, the issue is patchy frost, especially in river
valleys and other low-lying areas where the wind becomes calm.
Otherwise, a light southeast breeze should keep temps in the upper
30s to around 40 degrees and preclude any widespread frost.

For today, expect a sunny sky and seasonably cool afternoon
temperatures in the 60 to 65 degree range, which is right at or
slightly below normal for mid October.

Tonight, warm air advection will be underway with a southwest
breeze at or above 5 mph. Frost will not be an issue, with near
normal lows of 40 to 45 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Tuesday through Friday...Various 00z run medium range model runs in
good agreement of adjusting the main upper jet pattern generally
along and just north of the U.S./Canadian border this period, with
mean flow zonal pattern/broad westerlies acrs much of the CONUS
until late week. Then digging upper wave and jet energy enters into
the Pacific NW, resulting in mid CONUS upper ridge amplification
later Thu into Fri. This synoptic scale pattern to translate into a
mild and dry regime for the local area with above normal temps in
the upper 60s to 70s for much of the DVN CWA. Rather breezy return
flow days for Tuesday and Wednesday. Also some signs of ideal
southerly pump around west end of an establishing southeastern U.S.
ridge center, which would make for well above normal temps up the
plains and portions of the MS RVR Valley Thu into Fri. Enough mixing
of south to southeast llvl flow combined with sunshine and projected
temp/thickness advection may make for highs in the mid to upper 70s
by Fri.

Next Saturday and Sunday...The latest suite of medium range models
still with some variance, but generally propagate the Pacific
northwest upper wave/trof energy inland though the mid CONUS this
weekend period. Progression speed and moisture return up the plains
ahead of the associated incoming llvl front, aided by western gulf
flow wrapping around persistent SE CONUS high all will be players
for a potential passing precip event. General ensemble parameters
suggest showers streaming along and then post-frontal through the
local area late Saturday into Sunday. Current model timing and
convergence suggest the main precip activity window to occur locally
Sat night, but still plenty of time for the models to deviate from
their latest idea. A wave of this amplitude may slow for more of a
Sunday into Monday event in later runs. Long range moisture return
and seasonably mild temps may make for enough instability for some
thunder as well.

More prime THTA-E advection off the Gulf and convergence into the
front right now looks to occur on the southern extent of the boundary
acrs the southern plains and into the lower to mid MS RVR Valley for
more significant precip amounts down in those areas, with secondary
lighter amounts further to the north. but again, this scenario still
several days out and will need time for the models to further fine
tune mass and smaller features/fields. ..12..


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hrs. However,
included low-level wind shear at KCID, KDBQ, and KMLI for late
tonight into early Tuesday morning as WSW winds around 2 kft AGL
increase to 30-40 kts. Uttech




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