Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 182337
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
637 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING LARGE 1025+ MB RIDGE UPSTREAM
ACRS THE EASTERN PLAINS UP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS. ALOFT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS INDICATING VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROLLING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF EAST CENTRAL IL TOWARD SOUTHEAST INDIANA. TOP-
DOWN DRYING AND ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE ERODING STRATOCU DECK IN PLACE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...BUT PROCESS OCCURRING SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. BUT EXTRAPOLATING CURRENT CLEARING TRENDS ON
VIS SATELLITE LOOP SUGGEST THE LATEST RAP HANDLING OF CLEARING
LINE REACHING JUST EAST OF THE MS RVR BY 23Z ON TRACK OR EVEN A
TOUCH SLOW. EXPECT LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS WHERE CLEARING AND SOME
INSOLATION CAN OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TONIGHT...INCOMING RIDGE ON TRACK ALONG WITH CLEARING AND SFC WIND
DECOUPLE FOR A CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT. WILL KEEP ONGOING FROST
ADVISORY IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 ON THE IL SIDE OF THE MS
RVR...BUT RACE WILL BE ON WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON IT/S WESTERN FLANK
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHEASTERLY PUSH OF MAIN RIDGE CENTER
WILL ALLOW THE LIGHT/CALM SFC WIND REGIME TO HANG ON LONGEST IN
ONGOING ADVISORY/CLOSEST TO CENTER...SO WILL LET RIDE. COLDEST TEMPS
OF LOWER 30S IN LOWER SFC DPT FIELDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CWA....BUT
BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 30S EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FCST AREA WHERE HOPEFULLY THE RETURN FLOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DIPPING OUT OF THE UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LLVL RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BOOST TEMPS IN MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEASTER THIRD COULD BE HELD DOWN IN
THE UPPER 50S. SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
TEMPER THE WARM UP POTENTIAL SOME...OTHERWISE SOME AREAS COULD
GET INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND FORCING TO OUR NORTH.. AND LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.. THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. STARTING MONDAY.. A LARGE LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK. ON THURSDAY.. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS PROG AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TO CUT THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. BY NEXT WEEKEND..A MORE FLATTENED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. THIS
RIDGE ALONG WITH CONTINUED MODERATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS
70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE COMPLETELY
CLEAR OF KBRL AND KMLI BY 01Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH SUNRISE THEN WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     WARREN.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...DMD





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