Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 270447
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1147 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WEAK TROFS WERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN AND INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH LOW AND MID CLOUDS IN THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KPIR TO KMKG. A WEAK LOW
WAS NEAR KANW IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND
30S FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE DEW POINTS OF 40 AND
HIGHER RAN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAINLY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNSET FRIDAY. A WELL MIXED LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS KEPT THE
LOW CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WISCONSIN FROM MAKING MUCH
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH A STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW THE LOW
CLOUDS TO START MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD END UP BEING WARMER.

IF THE LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THEN THERE WOULD BE
MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO
OCCURS...THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WOULD BE MUCH COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES PLACE
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSITION OPENS THE DOOR FOR STRONGER RAIN
POTENTIAL IN A GENERAL SENSE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE ANOMALOUS COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SETTLING IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT AND DAY...WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH...TO LOWER 20S SOUTH...AND HIGHS UNDER
SUN AND LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY...ONLY TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD SATURDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AS THE PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO
OCCUR ALOFT. A CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH IOWA...POSSIBLY WITH A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ON IT IF THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT. I
PREFER THEM...AS THEY ARE SLOWER...AND FOCUSES MORE ENERGY NEAR THE
MOST NOTABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE CONUS. WAA RAINS WILL
SPREAD IN SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY FRONTAL FORCING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND WITH SMOOTH MOISTURE/ALBEIT
MEAGER...INTO IOWA...POPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 60 PERCENT FOR THE
PERIOD SUNDAY.  WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAINS...I SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED
HIGHS SUNDAY...DOWN TO THE MID 40S...MID 50S.

MODELS REALLY INCREASE THE WARMTH BEYOND SUNDAY...AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT BRING PLAINS WARMED PACIFIC AIR INTO THE REGION.  THERE WILL
BE A CLIPPER PASSING MAINLY NORTH MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD SWEEP GOOD
MIXING INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS...THUS THE RAPID PUSH OF MID 60S.
ANOTHER WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTH AGAIN...WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN...AND TWO MORE MILD DAYS.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUNDER SEEMS TO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THAT SHORT WAVE.

LOOKING BEYOND...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAY OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WET SYSTEM.  THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED NORTH...WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS SOUTH. GIVEN THE MILD AIR PRECEDING IT...ON CANNOT RULE OUT
A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION IN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 5-11 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...05






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