Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 260529
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1129 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

UPDATED TO LET THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
COLORADO EXPIRE. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED ALLOWING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO RECOVER ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AND WINDS HAVE DECREASED
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

MARGINAL MOISTURE PERSISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED LATE-
DAY STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND WIDER-SPREAD GUSTY WINDS. THE
ENVIRONMENT DOES DIFFER FROM WEDNESDAY IN SOME WAYS. THERE IS LESS
MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS NO FORCING
SEEN IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. FINALLY THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
HAS SHRUNK. ALL OF THESE WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE EXTENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE LATE-DAY OUTFLOW WINDS. STILL...WITH STORM MOTION
TO THE SSE AT AROUND 15 MPH...GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTH-FACING SLOPES AND NEARBY VALLEY LOCATIONS.

WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS RETURNING
TO NORMAL DOWNVALLEY PATTERNS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER
UTAH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE LOOK FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER ENOUGH HIGH BASED MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT FOR CONVECTION TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
BUT LITTLE RAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE OUTFLOW WINDS ON FRIDAY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THOSE THAT DEVELOPED WED
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER UTAH THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY SHIFTING WEST OVER THE GREAT BASIN
LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ANY MOISTURE THAT WORKS IN UNDER
THIS HIGH WILL BECOME TRAPPED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...
FOR A SLOW INCREASE. THEREFORE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON. ANY UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE VALLEYS...WE CAN EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW ROGUE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY
DRIFTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z FRIDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 45 KTS AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE AGAIN DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. BY 2PM
MDT...WINDS HAVE REACHED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SPEEDS AT A COUPLE
SITES OVER FAR NORTHWEST CO. THIS AREA IS WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE STRONGEST INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
RANGE...LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 15 PERCENT...AT ALL FIVE OBSERVING
SITES IN NORTHWEST CO. THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 200...AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9PM MDT
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...JOE/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...EH


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