Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 302121
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE STORM ENVIRONMENT TRANSITIONS QUICKLY FROM DRY TO WET
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WAS BEING PULLED INTO
SE UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1.3
INCHES THERE SPREADING QUICKLY INTO NE UT-NW CO THIS EVENING. THIS
EVENING WILL LIKELY HAVE THE MOST THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER
COVERAGE. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NE AT 20-25 MPH FOR SOME
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOME FORCING (DIV Q
CONVERGENCE) SEEN ACROSS NE UT THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NW
COLORADO LATE TONIGHT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THERE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT.

THE DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN U.S. WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. A FEW MINOR
IMPULSES AND JET SPEED MAXIMA...AS WELL AS A BIT OF VERTICAL
SPEED SHEAR...WILL HELP PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW THAT OLD BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH WED AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE NWRN U.S. AND
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A STRONG JET WILL CUT
THROUGH NW UT AND WESTERN WY...WHILE THE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS
THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SW WINDS TO INCREASE
OVER NW CO AND NE UT FRI AND SAT. SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UT WILL
SEE AN UPTICK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTH. A TROPICAL STORM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAY ADD
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SW FLOW OVER THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL
MOVE OVER AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35
MPH OR MORE ALONG WITH A BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS. KASE...KEGE...
KRIL...KTEX AND KMTJ HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS LOWER THAN ILS
BREAKPOINTS FOR SHORT PERIODS THROUGH 06Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SLIGHTLY LESS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC


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