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000
FXUS65 KGJT 110516
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1116 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

THE LATEST UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN SWEEPING SOUTH-EASTWARD ACROSS
WY TODAY. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE APPEARS ON THE SCANT SIDE WITH
THIS WAVE...WITH A GOOD CLEARING LINE JUST BEYOND ROCK SPRINGS WY AT
3PM MDT. AIDED BY DIURNAL EFFECTS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS THIS IMPULSE
APPROACHES. WEBCAMS IN THE STEAMBOAT AREA SHOW SOME VIRGA...AND
EXPECT THAT ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS ARE REACHING THE
GROUND ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND THEN END BEHIND
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THAT ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS
FOLLOWS THIS FIRST WAVE...BUT THE TRAJECTORY AND MODELS INDICATE
MOST OF THIS WILL TRACK TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIVIDE LATER
TONIGHT.

CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST FOR FRIDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL BE AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
SET TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST ONE WILL REACH THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN CA LATE FRI. MOISTURE OUR AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL
STREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING FRI
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THIS LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES INLAND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD. TONIGHT/S WILL BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT/S LOWS...WITH A LITTLE WARMING FRI NIGHT DUE TO THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE
OCCURRING ON SUNDAY AND FAVORING THEN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. THIS IS THE RESULT
OF A PACIFIC CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE THE SRN CA COAST
MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS AN OPEN WAVE SATURDAY WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWS AND DIGS
A TROUGH ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER MON-TUE AS
IT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A POTENTIALLY MORE
SUBSTANTIAL STORM MOVES INTO THE WEST AND ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE WED-
THU TIME FRAME. GFS IS MORE CLOSED AND WETTER THAN THE OPEN AND
PROGRESSIVE WAVE SHOWN IN THE ECMWF...WHICH SUGGESTS MORE WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT
PERHAPS AROUND FREEZING IN THE FRUIT AREAS OF THE GRAND VALLEY AND
NORTH FORK VALLEY. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH MODEL DIFFERENCES...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE ON THIS STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN MTNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CHANCE IS BELOW 10 PERCENT THAT
THESE WILL OCCUR AT ANY TAF SITES. AFTERNOON WINDS AND OCCASIONAL
GUSTS WILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING BUT WILL TAPER OFF
AROUND SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CO...WITH THE LIMITING FACTOR APPEARING TO BE THE DURATION OF WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH AS HUMIDITIES RUNNING 8-13% FROM
OBSERVATIONS. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT RED FLAG IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS
OF CO FWX ZONES 207 AND 290 WITH AN EXPIRATION TIME OF 7 PM MDT.
FRIDAY APPEARS LESS WINDY SO NO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAM
FIRE WEATHER...JAD