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000
FXUS65 KGJT 042216
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
316 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

RATHER FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO OUR CWA
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOME OF THE HIGHER VALLEYS...WITH
RAINFALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ACCURATELY
INDICATED DURING THE MORNING RUN THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...5-10
INCHES...WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NW SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND THE WEST
ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ABOVE THE 8500
FOOT LEVEL. THEREFORE...INCLUDED THOSE ZONES ABOVE THE 8500 FOOT
LEVEL IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH WAS POSTED SHORTLY
BEFORE NOON TODAY...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE PANNING OUT WELL
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA.
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN LOCALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED.

BACK EDGE OF MOISTURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO WESTERN COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND IN MANY LOCATIONS TO NEAR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHED
TODAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES OVER THE THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE IS BREAKING DOWN AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING WESTERLY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER
FAR NORTHEASTERN UT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE UINTA MTNS.

THE TROF DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE ECMWF CLOSES THE TROF OFF OVER
SOUTHWESTERN CO WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE TROF OPEN UNTIL IT REACHES
THE PLAINS. THE TROF AXIS BEGINS TO EXIT THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
IS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT
IN THE DETAILS OF TIMING...PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH. THAT BEING SAID
BOTH MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION OVER ALL THE WESTERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEASTERN UT MOUNTAINS AT ONE TIME DURING THE
STORM. CURRENT MODELS HAVE FRIDAY MORNING FAVORING THE NORTH
EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY BUT BECOMING MORE BROKEN IN
COVERAGE.

ANOTHER FAIRLY QUICK POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. BY MED DAY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ON TUESDAY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH
AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SNOW WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING IN COVERAGE AND BECOME WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 6000 FEET NORTH AND 7000 FEET WITH AREAS
OF IFR AND MVFR INCREASING OVER MOUNTAINS AND SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION VALLEYS. MOST LOWER VALLEY SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING IN EASTERN UTAH...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z EXCEPT
LINGERING CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ALONG MOUNTAIN AREAS MAINLY ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TIL LATE MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 8500 FEET
     FOR COZ012-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET
     FOR COZ004-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET
     FOR COZ010.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...AS