Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 151049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
449 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 449 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

An incoming cold front from the west will tighten the pressure
gradient over the region and bring enhanced drainage winds this
morning before daytime heating increases showers and thunderstorms
late this morning, mainly across NE Utah and NW Colorado. Some of
these storms could produce heavy rain, small hail and gusty
outflow winds to 50 mph. There will be a very slim chance of
precipitation across the valleys of SE Utah and SW Colorado today
as drier air has already begun to filter into the Four Corners at
lower levels. Cloud cover will increase all throughout eastern
Utah and western Colorado as this trough moves east through the
region, keeping temperatures quite a bit cooler today. 700 mb
temperatures will also drop about 6C behind the front today, which
ought to keep conditions breezy throughout the day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 449 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Drier air behind the front will be status quo over the next few
days with precipitable water hovering near a half inch or slightly
more. Weak high pressure over the area will keep skies mostly
sunny, but isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms can still
be expected each afternoon over the high terrain. These storms
will likely not produce large amounts of rain but rather gusty
winds due to dry lower levels. A strengthening trough over the
west coast will be a big player in tapping more monsoonal moisture
late this weekend from the south as the trough shifts high
pressure in place eastward.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 449 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

A few nocturnal showers have persisted overnight...but additional
convection will develop by late morning as the cold front becomes
closer to the UT/CO border. The focus for showers and storms will
be across NE UT and NW CO...with ILS breakpoints possible at
northern TAF sites. Any storms that move over TAF sites could
bring brief MVFR conditions. Mountain tops may be obscured at
times in heavy rain and low clouds.




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