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000
FXUS65 KGJT 130442
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1042 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

A DRY RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED EAST AND SOUTH...LEAVING ONLY ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN RUNNING 3 TO
6 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND BELIEVE MONDAY MAX TEMPS WILL
BE ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENED TUESDAY BY A PACIFIC TROUGH RACING
INLAND ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES NE UT/NW CO TUE AFTERNOON AND LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING...SO TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. WHILE THE COLD FRONT LOOKS
MOSTLY DRY...LINGERING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS. STORMS WILL BE
RATHER HIGH-BASED AND CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS IS LIKELY TUESDAY AS THE THERMAL
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL BE CHARACTERISTICALLY GUSTY...BUT THE ABSENCE OF A JET OVERHEAD
AND AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER OF JUST 15-25 KTS
SHOULD KEEP SURFACE GUSTS SOMEWHAT RESTRAINED.

WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS AT TIMES
IS EXPECTED THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
INLAND. FRIDAY MAY BE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED WED-FRI...WITH AN UPTICK IN
COVERAGE NEXT WEEKEND THAT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

VFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW FOR MOST AREAS. SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS CLOUDS FORM OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH ISOLD STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE SOME GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. KASE AND KEGE WILL SEE
BEST CHANCES FOR A PASSING STORM BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ATTM SO WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK WHICH COULD QUICKLY RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MUCH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FUEL CONDITIONS...AND LAND AGENCIES ARE
ENCOURAGED TO KEEP THEIR FUELS STATUS UPDATED.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DRY
BUT WEAK COLD FRONT. LOCALIZED CRITICAL WIND/LOW HUMIDITY CRITERIA
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THE
STRONGER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. CURRENT FUEL STATUS PRECLUDES ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT AT THE MOMENT. STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WIND
WITH LOW HUMIDITY IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM MOVING INLAND.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER THE MTNS ON SOME DAYS. STORMS WILL BE MAINLY HIGH-BASED
AND LIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE WIND THAN RAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...JAD