Area Forecast Discussion
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379
FXUS64 KLUB 092032
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
232 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...
FCST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE
RIDGE NUDGES EWD WILL SEE HEIGHTS AND INCREASES INCREASE AS WELL.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO A BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SFC WINDS
WEDNESDAY...WILL PUSH TEMPS TO OR A BIT BEYOND WARM END OF MOS
GUIDANCE PROG FOR HIGH TEMPS. WILL ALSO FAVOR HIGHER END OF WIND
SPEEDS FOR WEDNESDAY...END RESULT BEING A RANGE OF 15-25 MPH LATE
MORNING THRU AFTN.

.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST YET AGAIN AS DRY AND WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES FROM VERY WARM WEDNESDAY
TEMPS. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH REGARD TO THE COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONGER INFLUX OF SURFACE
RIDGING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS. DESPITE A COOL DOWN...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MODELS DO AGREE IN DRAGGING A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS
COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH MID
WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE...IT KEEPS
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGULATED TO THE WESTERN US WITH
RIDGING/NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO PERIODIC LOW END CRITICAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTN. TEMPS OF 20-PLUS DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS ON THE STRENGTH OF SOME BREEZY WEST WINDS.
HOWEVER...THOSE WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO BE MOSTLY AT OR JUST BELOW THE
MAGICAL 20 MPH THRESHOLD...AND WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET THREE HOURS
OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS NEEDED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING DESPITE THE
WARM TEMPS AND CORRESPONDING LOW RH /BOTTOMING OUT BTWN 10 AND 15
PCT/.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/01



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