Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 222021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
321 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

The high pressure center across the desert southwest has weakened
just a bit and continues to be shunted further westward.  To our
west, the remnants of T.C. Cindy are tracking NNE along the TX/LA
state line.  Looking ahead, given the proximity of the high, we will
largely remain in northwesterly flow through the middle of next
week.  A trough axis will pass to our north tomorrow helping to
drive a cold front into the area with little in the way of
significant impulses in the mean flow progged through the weekend.
This will leave a high amplitude ridge in place across the west
until a low pressure system drops into British Columbia early next
week.  This should, in turn, flatten the ridge and may allow our H5
flow to become more zonal.  Overall, the synoptic pattern continues
to handled a bit differently each day in guidance.  Overall, the
timing of the front appears slightly slower in most runs today with
the NAM among the front runners.  The front should be our northern
border by mid-morning on Friday.  Winds behind the boundary may be a
bit stiff with speeds running 20-25 mph.  At present, our northern
zones should start to see a respite from the heat though, given the
front`s progress during the day, may suffer yet one more day.  Post
frontal cloudiness is expected and there remains some risk of
showers and thunderstorms across the area tomorrow.  Scattered rain
chances continue early Saturday though the models have really dried
things out during the day.  Sunday and Monday continue to have
prospect for rainfall though what pans out will be so heavily
dependent on mesoscale evolution that it is hard to justify
anything more than broad-brushing POPs. Numerical guidance just
doesn`t handle weakly forced conditions (their troubles with
tropical systems.) Bottom line--your outdoor event this weekend
could get wet--heavy rain is possible--too soon to tell where.
Then again, it might stay dry the whole weekend in your particular
location. At least it will be cooler. Things should dry out and
become hot by mid next week.




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