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000
FXUS64 KLUB 020434
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1034 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH
SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013/

SHORT TERM...
DENSE CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...VEERS WINDS NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL SEND THE
REMNANTS OF A DIFFUSE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN
COOLING ALOFT AND CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE LOWS MONDAY
MORNING BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S WITH PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS HITTING THE FREEZING MARK.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BACK WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING
STRETCHING DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE...LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SHARPLY COLDER TEMPS AND A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIP LATE WEEK.

MILD AND DRY FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY WELL INTO THE 70S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF THE POLAR AIRMASS.
WHILE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO BACKDOOR THROUGH AT LEAST OUR NE ZONES WED...IF
NOT FARTHER...AND MAY RESULT IN A STRONG SW-NE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CFWA. A STRONGER COLD SURGE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER WITH HIGHS ON
THURSDAY EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 20S AND 30S. IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A
LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE SW. THIS WAVE MAY PROVIDE AN
EARLIER BOOST TO MID-LVL MOISTURE AND LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
QPF...SO WE/VE STARTED POPS EARLIER ON THURSDAY. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE
A CONCERN INITIALLY...AS A WARM NOSE IS PROGGED TO BE PRESENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. A WINTRY MIX MAY BE COMMON IN MOST
AREAS. THE TEMP PROFILE SHOULD SUPPORT A SWITCH TO ALL SNOW BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPEAR THAT THEY WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE
PASSES BUT THE COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE NEXT
UPPER WAVE WILL THEN SWING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES SAT INTO SUN.
X-SECTION PROGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEEP SATURATION ACROSS OUR CWFA BUT
LIFT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW. LITTLE IF ANY WARMING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY OR
EVEN INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HANGS TOUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  68  36  66  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         33  69  35  68  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     33  69  37  69  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     34  69  37  72  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       34  70  36  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  71  37  73  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    37  70  40  73  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  70  38  74  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          37  73  39  75  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     40  71  41  78  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/16