Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 250840
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
340 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SO FAR A QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH WE ARE WATCHING
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND THE 11-3.9
MICRON SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A FEW POCKETS OF CLOUDS THAT APPEAR TO
BE MID TO HIGH LEVEL.  LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WHICH LEADS TO THE SECOND FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE
DAY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.  ALL THE 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE PRODUCING
AT LEAST SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CAPROCK.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE REGION SHOW SBCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG WITH THE CAP ERODING BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE CAPROCK.  THERE WILL STILL BE A BIT OF A CAP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY AND CAPE VALUES
DROP OFF AS YOU HEAD WEST INTO NEW MEXICO THANKS TO DEEPER BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING.  BIGGEST CONCERN IS HOW ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIATE AS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC OR MESOSCALE-LIFT
ALOFT NOR ANY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES EITHER.  WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE WERE A FEW WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND FROM CONVECTION LATE YESTERDAY EVENING.
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL GENERALLY DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA SS
STEERING FLOW IS RATHER WEAK.

ONLY BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS TO BUMP TEMPERATURES
UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE WEST TEXAS MESONET SITES
CAME IN WITH UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS YESTERDAY...ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.  AREAS ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW
90S THIS AFTERNOON.  ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO STABILIZE.
LOW TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE
SEEN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.

JORDAN

.LONG TERM...
MEAN RIDGE WILL OCCUPY THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND UNTIL DEFORMING THEREAFTER AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING
OVERSPREADS THE NW CONUS. ONE MINOR WAVE EMANATING FROM MONSOONAL
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE CORE OF THE RIDGE AND
TEMPORARILY DAMPEN IT IN THE PROCESS. THIS WAVE SHOULD GRAZE THE
LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT IN NW FLOW AND DELIVER A MODEST COLD
FRONT.

A GRADUAL INFLUX OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT AND IMPROVED MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEMS PLAUSIBLE FOR LOW-END PRECIP MENTION
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NW ZONES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
BEFORE EXPANDING EAST AND PEAKING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK FROPA.
MODELS HAVE THIS FRONT STALLING ON FRI ANYWHERE FROM OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES TO THE PERMIAN BASIN...BUT GIVEN NW UPPER FLOW STILL
INTACT...AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL END UP SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. AS SUCH...SCALED BACK THE SUPERBLEND/S CHANCE POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. BEST RAIN CHANCES COULD FOCUS ALONG THE E-NELY
UPSLOPE FLOW OF ERN NM WITH SOME CHANCE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO OUR
SW ZONES.

HEIGHT FIELDS THEN EDGE UPWARD BY THE WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
IS SHUNTED EAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGHING. THIS
SHOULD CAP OFF RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THE HIGH
WILL BREAK DOWN MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS...CMC AND DGEX INDICATE
ACCOMPANIED BY FURTHER PRECIP CHANCES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY
CHANGE TO TEMPS WAS TO EDGE MAX TEMPS UPWARD ON THURSDAY ABOVE
SUPERBLEND NUMBERS PARTICULARLY GIVEN BREEZY SW/DOWNSLOPE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93


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