113
FXUS64 KLUB 071109
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
609 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

 - Another muggy and hot day is expected with chances for
   thunderstorms, some severe, across the Caprock Monday evening
   through early Tuesday morning.

 - Storm chances continue for Tuesday evening, with drier and
   warmer weather expected Wednesday through Friday.

 - Isolated storms may return next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Storms continue to dissipate as they approach West Texas early
this morning. At this time, the severe weather threat remains low
with main hazards being locally heavy rainfall and localized
strong wind gusts along the leading edge of the outflow boundary.
Storms are expected to weaken as they enter areas across the
Caprock through the overnight period, with some models signaling
at another round of sub-severe storms developing along an remnant
outflow boundary across southwestern OK, resulting in a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Monday morning for areas across the far
southeastern Texas Panhandle. However, the overall confidence in
this remains rather low at this point. Monday looks to be another
repeat of the last two days, with southerly winds speeds aiding in
WAA into the region, which combined with mostly sunny skies and
similar thickness values as today expected tomorrow will result in
daytime highs climbing into the 90s area-wide. Moisture transport
will also continue, with the upslope component to the winds noted
from the surface to mid-levels, which will likely continue to
drive moisture into the region with dewpoints once again tomorrow
afternoon progged in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the Caprock.
Subtle disturbances riding down the eastern periphery of the H5
ridge along with upslope winds will likely drive thunderstorm
initiation off the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico. Given
northwest flow aloft prevailing, we may see thunderstorms track
into portions of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern
South Plains, with a very similar set up to previous days. Main
threats will be locally heavy rainfall given PWATs well above
seasonal normals and deep moisture column depicted by soundings.
Although the severe weather threat looks low, higher dewpoints
along with warm daytime highs will allow for MLCAPE values around
1500 J/kg to 1700 J/kg, which combined with steep low-level lapse
rates and bulk shear magnitudes up to 30 knots, may result in
storms capable of strong wind gusts to 60 mph and quarter size
hail. Storms that develop will track southeastward and if they
stay in tact will likely move across portions of the Caprock late
tomorrow evening through the early morning hours on Tuesday,
before diminishing. Regardless, a muggy night is expected Monday
night with lows in the 60s and 70s under partly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The upper high which is currently building into New Mexico and
Arizona had been forecast to build into the 4-Corners region and
possibly park there for an extended period of time.  Latest models
show the high a little weaker and also sliding west by this coming
weekend to a position more over Arizona and southern California. The
position is important to our area because our upper winds could
become more northwesterly increasing the chances of afternoon to
overnight storms.

For the extended part of the forecast we continue to have a chance
of thunderstorms through Tuesday night as north to northwest flow
aloft brings in pockets of mid and upper level moisture.  That
moisture originates from afternoon thunderstorms forming in the
higher terrains of New Mexico and Colorado.

By Wednesday our upper winds should be more northeasterly and
thus drier, allowing slightly warmer surface temperatures in the
mid to upper 90s as well. As next weekend approaches, if the
upper high retrogrades to the west as the latest model runs show,
a slight chance of storms comes back into the forecast. Lipe

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Thunderstorm activity moving southward through the Texas Panhandle
has created an outflow boundary that has been generating patchy
areas of IFR CIGS in its wake. Therefore, there could be brief
period of these CIGS affecting the TAF sites, especially KCDS and
KPVW. Confidence is low in timing and how long these CIGS will
persist. If these thunderstorms continue to maintain their
intensity, KPVW and KLBB could be affected later this morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...01