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000
FXUS64 KLUB 111139
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
639 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM MID-LATE MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. MVFR STRATUS MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
THIS MORNING MAY BE SEEN FROM KLBB...BUT WESTWARD TURN OF PARENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN COAHUILA SHOULD KEEP THIS
THREAT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TERMINAL. MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...WITH KLBB POTENTIALLY BEING
ON THE EDGE OF ANOTHER BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...
EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS COAHUILA WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU TODAY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
COUNTRY/S MIDSECTION. WHILE LOOKING TO BRING NOTHING MORE THAN AN
INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION WITH PWATS ON
THE ORDER OF 1.25 INCHES...AT LEAST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK. AREAS ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD
STAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WHILE EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT MAKES
IT INTO THE LOW-MID 90S. ANY SHOT FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE BRUNT OF
THE LIFT FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE
SUBSIDENCE ESTABLISHED BY THE RIDGE.

MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS SAID WAVE
PROPAGATES TOWARD THE TRANS-PECOS...THUS KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS
RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE IN THE LOW-MID 60S WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT AND
MID 60S-LOW 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES.

LONG TERM...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGTERM THROUGH
MOST OF THE CYCLE. A WEAKNESS STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE
RIDGE SATURDAY THAT WILL COVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHICH
WILL HELP BRING IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP PRIME US FOR
SOME SHOTS AT RAIN. A DEEP LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY LATE WEEKEND WHICH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE BACK WESTWARD
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PUTTING US ON THE EASTER PERIPHERY OF
IT. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTER BY LATE
MONDAY WHICH MAY HELP BRING SOME SHOWERS OUR DIRECTION THAT DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT. FOR THIS CHANCE I HAVE KEPT IN THE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POP FOR MONDAY NIGHT. BY 06Z TUESDAY THE APPROACHING FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE OVER THE KS/OK BORDER ACCORDING TO SURFACE THETA-E AND
850 ADVECTION. A SECOND SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
SHOWING UP ON THETA-E AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT MOST LIKELY INDICATING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WHICH WILL PLAY
A PART IN OUR FIRST GOOD CHANCE AT PRECIP. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE
FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BEFORE ESSENTIALLY
STALLING AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETTING THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS UP FOR A FEW
BOUTS OF MODERATE RAIN. WHILE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...A LLJ WILL HELP FEED MOISTURE TO THE FRONT TO SUSTAIN
PRECIP ALONG IT. WITH A CONSTANT FEED OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH PWATS
ALREADY BEING OVER 1.5 INCHES WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE HEAVY.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATED AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROF TO HELP PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE FA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA
WHILE THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF DELAYED THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
BY NEARLY A DAY. THE NEW 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH A FROPA OCCURRING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MORE PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. SINCE THE ECMWF IS
STILL A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS IT IS A BIT MORE GENEROUS
WITH RAIN CHANCES. BY FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES. TEMPS STARTING TUESDAY WILL COOL TO BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS BY THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH THE COOLER TEMPS BEING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE/NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. BY NEXT WEEKEND THE GLOBAL
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS BUILDING THE RIDGE BACK
OVERHEAD WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS US IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROF TO OUR NORTH. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        89  62  89  63  91 /   0   0  10   0   0
TULIA         90  64  91  65  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     89  65  90  65  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     89  65  90  66  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       89  67  91  67  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   87  64  90  65  92 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    89  65  91  66  93 /   0   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     95  69  97  70 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          91  67  95  68  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     95  70  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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