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000
FXUS64 KLUB 281743
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES IS SHIFTING EWD
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW TO BECOME ZONAL OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. SOME
TIGHTENING OF THE HEIGHT GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN SOME BREEZY WEST WINDS TODAY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO NW TO
NORTH TONIGHT ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE PLAINS. DESPITE A
DECREASE IN MID AND UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...THICKNESSES NEAR NEUTRAL AND AN INCREASE IN DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT SUGGEST WARMING ON ORDER 1 TO 4 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAYS
HIGHS...GENERALLY IN LINE WITH OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WARMER
MAVMOS OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS CENTERED ON THE LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM THAT
PROMISES TO GENERATE A REGIONAL PRECIP EVENT PUNCTUATED BY SOME
FROZEN PHASES AT TIMES. WATER VAPOR PRESENTATION OF THIS TROUGH
NOW SW OF BAJA CA IS QUITE RESPECTABLE COMPLETE WITH WHAT LOOKED
LIKE HEALTHY MCS AT ONE POINT IN ITS WARM SECTOR. THE INITIAL
SURGE OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REACH OUR AREA BY THU
BEFORE UNDERGOING AGGRESSIVE TOP-DOWN SATURATION LATE FRI INTO
EARLY SAT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT RATCHETS UP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

RESILIENT UPPER RIDGE AXIS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRI NOW SPELLS
AN EVEN LATER ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT POPS...SO
MAX TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA WHERE PRECIP MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL FRI NIGHT AT THE SOONEST.
POP GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENED MARKEDLY FROM W-E ON FRI GIVEN
OVERWHELMING NWP SIGNALS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOW MORE CONSISTENT
WITH A NOTABLE WARM NOSE OVER ALL BUT OUR W-NW COUNTIES ON FRI
THRU EARLY SAT...SO PRECIP PHASE WAS CHANGED TO ALL RAIN IN THESE
AREAS WITH MOSTLY SNOW FAVORED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS
PARMER COUNTY WHERE SREF PLUMES SUPPORT A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMS BY
SAT MORNING BEFORE ASCENT WANES. MARGINAL 2M TEMPS HOWEVER LOOK TO
KEEP MUCH OF THE SNOW ACCUMS CONFINED TO UNPAVED SURFACES AS PRE-
EXISTING COLD AIR AND FURTHER WET-BULB COOLING WILL BE IN SHORT
SUPPLY. ISENTROPIC PROGS SHOW STOUT SW WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS IN THE
CRITICAL WARM NOSE FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SO THE OPPORTUNITY FOR AN
EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WARM LAYER MAY INDEED UNFOLD WHILE FURTHER
CURTAILING SNOW TOTALS IN OUR NW COUNTIES FROM THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
CURRENTLY INDICATED.

SEVENTY POPS WERE EXPANDED FRI NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THIS
PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO RECEIVE THE LION/S SHARE OF DEEP OMEGA AND
SATURATION. BY SAT...THE NATURE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW
IS TO GRADUALLY PHASE WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DIVING SE ALONG THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL SERVE TO CARRY THE DOMINANT TROUGH
TOO FAR TO OUR SW WHILE OPENING THE DOOR TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
DID RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT NIGHT AND EVEN EXTENDED THESE
THROUGH SUN ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NRN
STREAM TROUGH GRAZES THE REGION...BUT THE EARLIER DRY SLOTTING /
SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT MAY PROVE TOO FORMIDABLE FOR
ADEQUATE RE-SATURATION OF THE COLUMN ONCE THIS LATTER WAVE ARRIVES
ON SUN. LARGE SCALE PATTERN FROM MON-TUE THEN DEAMPLIFIES INTO A
SHALLOW CYCLONIC REGIME FAVORING NO FURTHER POPS AND A RETURN TO
MILDER TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        71  34  51  30 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         72  37  53  31 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     73  38  54  32 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     76  37  57  32 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       77  39  58  32 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   75  40  57  33 /   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    76  40  58  34 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     82  44  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          80  44  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     81  46  60  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/01/23