Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 050930
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
430 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
UA RIDGING CONTINUED TO SHIFT EWRD TO ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THE CENTER WAS NOTED ACROSS SERN NM/NERN OLD
MEXICO. AS SUCH...NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED WHICH IS ALSO AIDING IN
SPILLING IN BKN-OVC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING.  DESPITE THE PROXIMITY OF THE SAID UA RIDGE...AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENSUED /COURTESY OF AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME/ WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S PER 09Z METARS. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM
AND GFS HINT AT LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CWA LATER THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY MAKING A RUN FOR THE SRN ZONES AOA DAYBREAK.
PER 09Z METARS...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT AND SOUTH OF
OZONA TX WHICH MAY IN FACT BE THE STRATUS DECK THAT COULD NEAR/MOVE
ACROSS THE SRN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
THESE CLOUDS WILL EVOLVE AS IT HAS A WAYS TO GO TO REACH THE CWA.

THIS AFTN...THE UA RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY A BIT THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING ESE FROM CANADA TO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION /THOUGH A
STRAY STORM APPROACHING THE WRN ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION/
AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS MAY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS
BEING MOSTLY IN THE 90S ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. DEEPENING SFC TROUGH
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT...LEADING TO MODEST SRLY BREEZES DURING THE AFTN HOURS /15-
20 MPH/. MOS GUIDANCE EXHIBITING WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT THIS
EVENING-TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE BL WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DE-COUPLING.
ONCE AGAIN...THE NAM SOLUTION SHOW LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
THE CWA AND PERHAPS MAKE A RUN FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AOA 06/10Z.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
EXPECTED. THIS QUIET WX PATTERN MAY SOON BECOME DISRUPTED. FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.

$$

.LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS CONTINUE TO MOUNT LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ROUNDING THE UPPER
RIDGE DIP SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S LATE MONDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES. DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR
MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY APPEAR LIKELY
GIVEN AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT AND NORTHWEST HIGH
LEVEL FLOW. SOME SUSPICIONS OF DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-LASTING SLOW
MOVING MCS THAT COULD BECOME A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKER. EXACTLY
WHERE THIS MIGHT FORM BY EARLY TUESDAY IS NOT CLEAR AS SOLUTIONS
ARE RELOCATING DEEP LAYER CIRCULATION EAST AND THEN WEST WITH EACH
MODEL RUN. TOO EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH BUT STUDYING THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL WILL BE ON OUR AGENDA FOR UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES.
ALSO STILL APPEARS TO BE CHANCE FOR STRONG OR LOCALLY SEVERE
EVENTS OF HAIL OR HIGH WIND ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY. INSTABILITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE AS PRECIPITATION COOLED AIR SPREADS OUTWARDS
ALTHOUGH AS NOTED ABOVE SYSTEM MAY INCREASE SPIN AND THUS BE
CAPABLE OF TAPPING ITS OWN INSTABILITY.

BY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BETTER PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
WILL SHIFT MORE INTO SOUTHEAST ZONES...SOME POTENTIAL IT COULD
CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA...BUT DEEP MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN AND WE
WILL RETAIN MODERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY LIFT OUT BY THURSDAY
OR SO AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN SLOWLY TO REBUILD IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER LOW EDGING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SHIFT
MONSOONAL FLOW NORTH LIKELY BRUSHING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHERE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REMAIN. HEIGHTS ALOFT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH BY THE WEEKEND TO CLEAR
PRECIPITATION TOTALLY...ALTHOUGH SOLUTION SPREAD INCREASES AS THE
GFS ATTEMPTS TO ROLL OUT THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW THROUGH THE
ROCKIES VS THE ECMWF REDEVELOPMENT OF SUMMER RIDGE OVERHEAD.
SO...STILL ISSUES TO DETERMINE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WE
WILL HOLD ON TO WARMER AND DRIER FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  67  86  63 /  10  10  50  70
TULIA         91  68  88  65 /   0  10  50  70
PLAINVIEW     89  68  89  66 /   0  10  40  70
LEVELLAND     91  68  91  66 /   0  10  30  70
LUBBOCK       92  68  91  67 /   0  10  30  70
DENVER CITY   91  68  91  67 /   0  10  30  60
BROWNFIELD    91  68  90  67 /   0  10  30  60
CHILDRESS     94  73  94  70 /   0  10  20  80
SPUR          91  71  91  69 /   0  10  20  60
ASPERMONT     94  73  94  71 /  10   0  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/01



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