Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 161719
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1119 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR is expected at all sites through the TAF period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Impressive 1050 mb surface high centered near Valentine, NE at
3 AM will be found shifting into eastern KS by sunset. Axis of
surface ridging already occupying the local area is shown to
retreat slowly east later today ahead of 850 mb temps warming
from -12C to around -7C. Aloft, the base of a broad upper trough
will slowly depart SE of the region by midday. This will allow
remnant clouds with occasional virga to erode completely ahead
very dry layer nearly 4000 feet thick. This aggressive drying
should allow a quick recovery of temps into the lower 30s in most
areas per latest MOS and rapid update models.

Northwest flow aloft will relax considerably by Wednesday as an
errant trough passes 200+ miles west of the local area, so
thicknesses will not see a considerable recovery until late week
when westerly flow deepens. This evolution will precede a mobile
trough progged to reach the Four Corners by Saturday, before
intensifying as it lifts north of the region on Sunday. The usual
fast bias of models with such distant troughs is underway as
newest models and GEFS members have slowed this wave markedly
compared to 24 hours ago. The present solution favors this trough
axis reaching our domain by Sunday morning, before the vort max
closes off across the Sunflower State by midday. Overarching
theme is for a very mild and breezy day on Saturday followed by a
decent Pacific FROPA Saturday night, before dry slotting deepens
on Sunday south of the upper low. The only complexity during this
time involves the arrival of a Canadian front on the backside of
the low on Sunday. The GFS is much faster with this FROPA than
the ECMWF due in large part to deeper phasing of the low with a
northern stream trough. Superblend presents a reasonable 50/50
solution for this difference at present, however if the GFS trends
more toward the ECMWF, then stronger westerly winds with blowing
dust would be a greater consideration. Pattern should trend very
uneventful by Monday under zonal flow with seasonal temps.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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