Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 102331
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR WITH LIGHT NELY WINDS THRU FRI. STALLED FRONT JUST SW
OF LBB WILL RESUME ITS SWWD COURSE SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A PRETTY GOOD SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING HELPED IT TO
MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE 3 PM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/ANALYSIS WAS CORROBORATED
BY RADAR DATA AND HAD THE FRONT STALLED OUT ROUGHLY ALONG A
MULESHOE...LUBBOCK...TO PADUCAH LINE.  TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
HAVE STILL MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS BUT COOLER AIR HAS HELPED HOLD THE NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR 80 DEGREES.  FRONT WAS
ALSO PICKED UP QUITE NICELY IN DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WHERE SUB ZERO
DEWPOINTS/VERY DRY AIR WAS SHOWING UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE THE
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS HAD DEWPOINTS INCREASING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT TO MID 30S IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FRONT WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO SAG FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  COOLER AIRMASS
WILL BRING MIN TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN THIS MORNING FOR FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
UA LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT WILL QUICKLY BACK TO THE SW COURTESY OF
A CLOSED UA PACIFIC LOW NEARING THE SHORE OF SRN CALI. SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO VEER TO THE S-SW WITH MODEST
BREEZES MAKING FOR A RATHER WARM /80S AND 90S/ AND DRY SAT...THUS
POSING A THREAT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT IS ALSO OF
NOTE TO MENTION THAT DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON THE CAPROCK WILL AID TO
SETUP A DRYLINE WHICH WILL SHARPEN OFF THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTN.
THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA...THOUGH PWATS
OF 0.75-0.90 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS WILL EXIST /WITH
DEWPOINTS NEARING 50F/. LACK OF UL SUPPORT IS THE REASON THE NAM
IS VOID OF PRECIP...THOUGH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND LACK OF UL FORCING. LACK OF UL SUPPORT IS THE
REASON BELOW MENTIONABLE POPS WILL REMAIN...HOWEVER STORMS
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING IS POSSIBLE BUT THE
QUESTION IS WILL IT BREAK THE CAP. IF SO...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND
SPEED SHEAR ARE ADEQUATE THUS SUGGESTIVE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL.

BY SAT NIGHT...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SHARPEN UP AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA LOW OPENS UP WHILE PROGRESSING EWRD ACROSS THE DESERT SW. PWATS
ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 0.40-1.00 INCH /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED
ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. CONCURRENTLY...SFC LEE TROUGHING IS
SHOWN TO DEEPEN A BIT AND HENCE MAINTAIN BREEZY S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THE UA DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FA SUN AFTN...AND IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN DRY FROM WEST TO EAST THEREBY
DRY-SLOTTING THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO EXHIBIT A SLIVER OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENSUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS. WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY IMPINGING ON THE AREA EITHER SUN
AFTN OR SUN EVENING /MODELS STILL STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT TIMING/ IT
WILL BE ANOTHER SOURCE OF /FRONTOGENETICAL/ FORCING...WHICH WILL
COUPLE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HENCE ENCOURAGE  THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ELECTED TO INSERT BARELY
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE SAID AREAS...GIVEN MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A
STRUGGLE BUT WHAT IS AGREED UPON IS THE 1025+ MB SFC RIDGE DRIVING
THE FRONT...TO IMPOSE PRESSURE RISES OF 6-12 MB PER 3 HRS AND CAUSE
NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH. FURTHERMORE...THIS FRONT WILL USHER
IN 850 MB TEMPS OF 0C TO -2C BY MON MORNING...LEADING TO FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SWRN TX PANHANDLE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ON MON WILL THEREFORE DROP BACK TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS /LOWER 60S/ AND WITH THE SFC RIDGE SETTLING NEAR THE
REGION MON NIGHT...CHILLY TEMPS WILL ENSUE TUE MORNING /MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S/. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON MON IS SHOWN TO PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIP...THOUGH ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS QUICKLY DRYING OUT COULD PROVE
THIS TO BE OVERDONE /AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY BEING THE RULE/.
THEREAFTER...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD WHILST SFC LEE
TROUGHING AND THE RETURN OF SFC SRLY FLOW TAKING PLACE WILL LEAD TO
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EARLY-MID WEEK /HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S BY
MID-WEEK/. MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED /WED/THU/...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SILENT WX
GRIDS BEYOND SUN ATTM AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  82  48  86  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  79  51  88  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     47  81  52  88  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     48  84  53  90  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  83  54  90  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  84  54  90  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  53  91  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     49  82  55  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          54  85  54  90  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     55  84  57  90  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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