Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 142326
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
526 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.AVIATION...
CIGS have already risen into VFR category. North winds should stay
up for about an hour into the TAF period before diminishing. No
issues expected tonight and Wednesday with VFR expected to
persist.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/

SHORT TERM...
The upper low that has provided widespread precipitation to the
region the past 36 hrs continues moving eastward along the Red
River. Storm-relative ascent continues to supply mixed
precipitation across the Panhandle with recent satellite and radar
trends suggesting some enhancement which could prolong measurable
but light amounts across the far southeast Panhandle through 6 pm.
Otherwise, drier air will become the dominating feature overnight
into Wednesday as northerly flow continues and more energy digs
into the Desert Southwest. At the surface, high pressure will
translate east in the wake of the storm system with lee side
trough development into New Mexico by late in the day Wednesday.
Winds will remain gusty until sunset then settle quickly back to
around 10 kts or less overnight. Based on recent temperature
recovery behind these systems have favored the warmer side of
guidance for high temperatures Wednesday under full sunshine.

LONG TERM...
The long term promises a return to mild and dry conditions from
Thu through Sat before resuming a wet and unsettled pattern late
this weekend. The large scale pattern during this time will still
be comprised of a split flow regime along the west coast complete
with a pair of southern latitude troughs - the first of which is
already found diving over SW Arizona this afternoon. This trough
is starved of low and mid level moisture and will receive no
further contribution in the coming days as it pinches off into a
closed upper low, before finally lifting NE across the Big Bend
on Thu night and eventually NW Texas on Friday. Initially cool
northerly surface winds Wed evening will back SW by Thu further
serving to keep most of the column barren of moisture. This should
easily spur breezy afternoons both Thu and Fri.

Thicknesses will improve each day, perhaps even extending this
rally into Saturday pending the behavior of a modest cold front
behind the upper low`s passage on Friday. With upper ridging
building over the region on Saturday in advance of the second and
more vigorous trough, high temps on Saturday may end up even
milder than Friday. However, opted not to play into this just yet
as lower tropospheric winds should already start backing more S-SE
in response to pressure falls farther west. This loss of compressional
warming alone can easily curb max temps, and add to this a slow
return of Gulf moisture and it appears highs on Sat could be tempered
some from Friday.

Pattern recognition by Sun into early Mon is one that fits another
regional precip event as models all agree in a slow-moving low
latitude trough impacting all of the Lone Star State. Of particular
interest to our CWA, a deep meridional flow with an open Gulf points
to abundant moisture becoming established. No cold air source
regions are available with this system, so warm phase precip will
likely dominate Sun-Mon, perhaps with even more thunder than was
this case with our most recent event. PoPs Sun and Mon were
boosted in line with Superblend to reflect this wet pattern.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07



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