Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 150947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
347 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

A shortwave to the north is helping push a front south this
morning. As of 09Z the cold front had reached the South Plains and
should clear the CWA by late morning. A surface trough will pass
to the north and an increasing pressure gradient in mid and low
levels will increase winds this afternoon to 15-25 mph behind the
front. As surface winds veer this afternoon, they may bring some
moisture and cloud cover from the southeast over the Rolling
Plains. Surface winds become westerly Friday and the downsloping
warming component will help temperatures to rise quickly. Highs
will be 15- 20 degrees above normal on Friday. A shortwave trough
over the Rockies will eject and push a cold front through Friday
night. Ahead of the front a tightening pressure gradient will
increase wind speeds to 20-25 mph. Warm temperatures, breezy winds
and RH in the teens will lead to elevated to low critical fire
weather conditions Friday afternoon. While dewpoints will drop
even lower behind the front on Saturday, temperatures will be
about 20 degrees cooler than Friday which should limit fire
weather concerns for the weekend.

The GFS keeps upper level ridging for early next week, though it is
not as pronounced as previous runs and the ECMWF has become more
zonal for that time period. While both models have upper level flow
becoming meridional mid week, surface features vary. The GFS keeps
moisture to the east, and the ECMWF has moisture over the South
Plains for several periods mid week. Still too far out for exact
details on precip, but something to keep an eye on.




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