Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 190017 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
717 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING WWD FROM AN UPPER LOW
SITTING OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TO SKIRT ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES
THIS AFTN BUT CURRENTLY THINK THAT SINCE THESE ARE LIKELY SO
DEPENDENT ON INSTABILITY THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO CONTINUE MUCH PAST 00Z
IF AT ALL. ATTM WILL WITH POPS JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
THE POST-00Z TIME FRAME AS EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA IN AREA OF HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER DEEPER MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TUESDAY. MODELS PROG THE LOW NEAR SAN ANGELO TO
GET PICKED UP TUESDAY BY INCREASING SWLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BREAKS DOWN IN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW
DIVING SWD ALONG THE CALIF COAST. AS A RESULT WILL SEE INCREASED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORK NWD DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE A RELATIVE DEARTH OF QPF ACROSS THE FCST AREA
AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC. OF NOTE IS THAT THE
LOW WILL BEGIN FILLING AS IT STARTS ITS MOVE TO THE NORTH WITH
DECREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS THAN SEEN
TODAY...SO THAT LIKELY HAS MUCH TO DO WITH THE LIMITED PRECIP IN THE
MODELS. THAT SAID...RECENT DAYS HAVE SEEN REALITY BEING A LITTLE
WETTER THAN MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING SO CERTAINLY THINK THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING PEAK
HEATING TUESDAY AFTN ALTHOUGH EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE QUITE LIMITED.
STILL...SITUATION SUPPORTS INSERTING MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
TUESDAY AFTN. WILL PLACE THAT MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHERE MODELS CURRENTLY PROG THE BEST COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
COOL POOL ALOFT. TEMPS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED AS WELL GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS AND WILL TREND TOWARD THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY
CONVERGING ON A COMMON SOLUTION DURING THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
TIME FRAME.  OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN...WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MOUNTAIN
WEST...AND A STOUT UPPER HIGH ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  THIS WILL PLACE WEST TEXAS ALMOST DIRECTLY BETWEEN THE
TWO...WITHIN A REGIME OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW.  AS
THIS OCCURS...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT THIS POINT...GUIDANCE IS STILL RELATIVELY SPLIT ON
THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION...AS THE ECMWF IS APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS
SLOWER IN EJECTING A POTENT SHORTWAVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STOUT UPPER HIGH.  WHENEVER THIS OCCURS...LIKELY
DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME...THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WILL
STAND A REASONABLE CHANCE TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
STEERING FLOW IT REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION.  WHILE TIMING REMAINS A
CONCERN...THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ON
TO THE FASTER TROUGH EJECTION...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IT
REMAINS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  GIVEN THE TREND THOUGH...HAVE
OPTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS ALONG THE TEXAS NEW MEXICO STATE LINE FOR THE LATE THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING AS WELL.  ANOTHER POINT WORTH NOTING DURING THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME IS A MARKED INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER WAVE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THAN WE`VE SEEN IN THE RECENT
PAST...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

BEYOND LATE FRIDAY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD.  THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MAINTAIN SOME WESTERLY COMPONENT OF
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP BELOW EXPLICIT
MENTION UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS.  THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...LITTLE
VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES...AND
LOWS BETWEEN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  90  62  90  62 /   0  10  10  10  20
TULIA         64  91  67  91  65 /   0  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  90  67  91  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  90  65  91  64 /  10  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       67  90  69  94  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  90  66  92  65 /  10  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  90  66  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     71  95  72  97  71 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPUR          69  91  68  95  67 /  10  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     71  93  72  98  71 /  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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