Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 280509
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1209 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BY LATE AFTERNOON...FROPA IS EXPECTED TO START IMPACTING
THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A WIND SHIFT THAT HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE
TAFS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH FROPA IS STILL UNCERTAIN ATTM AND
HAS BEEN LEFT OUT UNTIL THE NEXT MODEL RUNS PROVIDE CLARIFICATION
ON TIMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
WINDS MAY GUST AT TIMES AT PVW AND LBB DUE TO EVENING ATMO MIXING
AND THEN LATER OUTFLOW FROM DYING STORMS ACROSS THE NW SOUTH
PLAINS. FROPA IS EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW FOR ALL TERMINALS AND WILL
BE INCLUDED IN THE NEXT ROUND OF TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WHILE JET LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY...MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS TROUGH AXIS
PASSES TO OUR NORTH.  THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SHALLOW COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LATEST DATA
SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF OF SLOWLY SAGGING BOUNDARY
THOUGH DOUBTS EXIST AS TO AREAL COVERAGE.  GUIDANCE IS OFTEN TOO
ASSERTIVE WITH ESTABLISHING A SQUALL-LIKE SYSTEM ALONG A SOUTHERLY
MOVING FRONT WHEN IN FACT THAT SITUATION IS EXCEEDINGLY RARE.
INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS TO COVER THE SITUATION QUITE WELL AND WILL
ONLY MAKE MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE POPS.
OTHERWISE...PERSISTENCE RULES.

LONG TERM...
AFTER CONVECTION ENDS FRIDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE LOW FOR THE NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY EVENING
WILL ENCOURAGE ANY STORMS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ADVECT IN THE
AREA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MONSOONAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION ON SATURDAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FA. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF THIS LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO EDGE EAST BUT A TUTT LIKE
FEATURE WILL TRY TO PREVENT THAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING ANY MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF WEST TEXAS NEXT WEEK
THUS KEEPING CONVECTION JUST OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  90  62  89 /  20  20  20  10
TULIA         65  92  63  90 /  20  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     62  92  64  90 /  10  20  30  10
LEVELLAND     61  94  64  91 /  10  20  30  10
LUBBOCK       67  95  65  92 /  10  20  30  10
DENVER CITY   61  94  65  91 /  10  20  30  10
BROWNFIELD    64  95  65  92 /  10  20  30  10
CHILDRESS     71  98  69  95 /  10  20  20  10
SPUR          67  99  69  96 /  10  20  20  10
ASPERMONT     66 102  72  99 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/74



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