Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 240430
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.AVIATION...
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS TO VEER TO SW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP VCNTY KLBB AND KPVW AROUND 12Z SUNDAY.
CHANCE IS VERY LOW AND WILL TAFS VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016/

AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE COLORADO
ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT...KEEPING SOUTH WINDS BREEZY OVERNIGHT
THEN VEERING TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN OVERNIGHT...BUT ANY STRATUS SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...
THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN SITTING IN EASTERN NM FOR SOME TIME TODAY AND
SHOULD STAY THERE...FOR THE MOST PART... UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION. CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE STILL
LOOKS UNLIKELY AS LIFT LOOKS TO BE HARD TO COME BY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR LIFT WOULD BE WITH THE DRYLINE. THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE IS NORTH IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A LOCALIZED AREA
OF ENHANCE CONVERGENCE HAS RECENTLY SET UP OVER THE TX/NM STATE LINE
AROUND PARMER COUNTY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SHALLOW CU FIELD.
ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT HIGH ON THE
EXPECTATION LIST. THIS IS DUE TO CONVECTION HAVING TO OVERCOME A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE UPPER-MID LEVELS AS WELL AS THERE BEING
A LACK OF CAPE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE THE MOST GENEROUS OF THE MODELS
IN HANDING OUT CAPE WHICH IS ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AT BEST
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS BEFORE 1 AM AND NO MENTION OF THUNDER.

WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY INTO THE NIGHT AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
DRYLINE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE WEST BY EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND WILL INCREASE TO THE 25 MPH RANGE
AS THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS/TROUGHS WILL SWING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PRODUCING THE WINDIEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD. GFS MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOVER AROUND 30
TO 34 KTS AT LUBBOCK...WHILE THE MET IS AROUND 20 KTS. WE
CONTINUE TO PLY THE MIDDLE-GROUND AT AROUND 25 KTS OR SO...OR 25
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIVER
OF T-STORM CHANCES IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS LATE THURSDAY...BUT
THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME STORMS COULD
DEVELOP IN THAT AREA AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS SOMEWHAT IN THE
EVENING. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS FLOW SWITCHES TO
NORTHWEST...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO DIG INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHEAST MIDWEEK WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TRACK THE
PAST 24 HRS. SURFACE RIDGING...A STRENGTHENING SRLY LOW-LEVEL JET
AND SW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY SHOULD RETURN GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA AND ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...BEGIN TO INCREASE
PRECIP CHANCES. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY THESE CHANCES MAY BE
CONFINED TO OUR SRN AND ERN COUNTIES WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WE COULD SEE SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY INCREASE
AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER THE
REGION. BY FRIDAY...THE MED- RANGE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
THE SURFACE DETAILS AS THE GFS BRINGS A DRYLINE INTO THE AREA
WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS SURFACE RIDGING. OVERALL...THE PATTERN
CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR T-STORM ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AS USUAL THE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW
THIS FAR OUT. THE UPPER- TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PASS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...DRAGGING PRECIP.
CHANCES EASTWARD WITH IT.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE DANGER WILL BECOME ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK
EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
THE WORST ON TUESDAY AS A PASSING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS STRONGER
WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER WILL BE REDUCED BY
THE SEASONAL GREEN-UP ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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