Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 122323
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
523 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

.AVIATION...
There are some indications that we could see a stratus layer move
in toward sunrise Tuesday morning. This could produce IFR
conditions at KCDS with less likely low ceilings at KLBB/KPVW.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...
After another cool day today we`ll see another cooler than normal
overnight into tomorrow morning with temperatures bottoming out
into the teens and low 20s across the region. Southeast winds will
remain steady overnight with dewpoints gradually increasing and
spreading westward from the Rolling Plains onto The Caprock. Low
clouds are expected to develop overnight with increasing moisture
and linger through the early morning while midlevel and high
clouds spreading over the region during the day. Tomorrow`s highs
will be at seasonable levels before increasing significantly on
Wednesday as the next upper level system continues to shift south
and east from the Pacific Northwest. As winds increase out of the
southwest for Wednesday we`ll see temperatures rise into the mid-
70s leading to the potential for fire weather concerns especially
in the extreme southwest Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with
winds becoming steady around 20 knots near the New Mexico state
line and RHs in the teens on the Caprock.

As the upper level low approaches, cooler air aloft and mid to upper
level height falls will cool us slightly from Wednesdays highs
but still remain mostly in the 70s. The biggest uncertainty
remains with the cold front that pushes south and southwest late
Thursday into Friday. Available moisture still remains lean along
with differences in the evolution of the upper level low. GFS
indicates the low splitting off and slowing down while ECMWF
weakens the trough but brings it farther east and closer to our
vicinity on Friday. ECMWF positions the upper level trough axis
with an increase in the southern jet which will increase dynamic
lift over the region but current timing would lead to best
precipitation chances focused to our south and east. But we do
still have slight chance POPS in the forecast across the area from
early Friday through Saturday afternoon depending on how long the
surface front lingers in the area. We will hopefully see an end
to our long dry spell either Friday or Saturday as the front
pushes through and upper level wave approaches from the west.

Beyond the weekend and into next week, uncertainty remains in how
well organized the next trough will be on Tuesday into Wednesday
and the position and timing of the associated cold front but we
are looking at the potential for some more precipitation for the
beginning to middle of next week as well while temperatures
fluctuate slightly above and below normal levels through the rest
of the forecast period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/26



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