Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 080424
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1024 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR, with a cold, dry airmass dominating and northerly flow aloft.
Solutions agree on an increase once more in mid and upper level
moisture near or just after daybreak Friday. Also, mixing into
stronger northerly flow will probably occur late morning, but
could be a little later with clouds perhaps delaying the warming
and thus mixing. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1002 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017/

UPDATE...

Updated lows for tonight based on current temperature trends.
Bumped temps down several degrees, especially for the western half
of the CWA, with Muleshoe already down to 16 and Plains down to
19. Otherwise forecast remains on track.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 539 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017/

AVIATION...
Upper level low pressure trough transitioning through at the start
of the TAF forecast. A few weak convective cells will pass near
KPVW and KLBB early, but dissipating. No signs of lightning -
perhaps could see some light snow virga. Then, clearing and cold
airmass with weak surface pressure gradient and light winds
expected overnight. Solutions indicate mixing into moderately
strong northerly flow will occur mid to late Friday morning.
Uncertain if we will see as much mid and high clouds as indicated
by latest WRF/NAM solution for Friday - will take a closer look
for the 06Z TAF. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 224 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The slow-moving upper level trough that has brought precipitation
to roughly the southern half of West Texas continues to shift
slowly to the east and southeast, its axis along a line from
northeastern Sonora across eastern New Mexico to the lower
Missouri Valley. This position is far enough east now to allow for
deeper dry air to really begin filtering into the forecast area
this afternoon with clearing skies across the north but still a
pretty thick cirrostratus shield across the south. The drying and
clearing will continue to push southward across the forecast area
through the nighttime hours with at least partly cloudy skies
expected areawide by late evening. However, a quickly moving
shortwave trough in the nearly meridional flow over the Rockies
will move toward the region with an increase in mid level cloud
cover moving in from northwest to southeast late tonight. There
should be enough of a break between the two systems to allow
temperatures to drop quite efficiently, probably to below the
progged lows indicated by the statistical MOS numbers. The cold
start and a period of mid cloud will be more than offset by a
rapid increase in thicknesses as the main upper trough accelerates
quickly eastward. MOS numbers for Friday`s highs appear well in
the ballpark.

Beyond Friday the weather looks to be quiet for a significant
period. The northerly flow aloft is still progged to back toward
northwest. Thicknesses appear to bounce around in a narrow range.
No strong encroachment of warm air from the southwest is noted
while air masses behind cold fronts on Monday and Thursday do not
look terribly strong at this time. The result should be a fairly
narrow range of temperatures from Saturday with near normal
overnight lows and daytime highs mostly near 5-10 degrees warmer
than seasonal norms.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/05



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