Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 240016 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
616 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

6 PM aviation discussion is below.

Quick update to account for a much faster cold front that is
already exiting the eastern OK Panhandle ahead of stout northerly
winds. Present indications and select high resolution models
support this front reaching Childress from 11 PM-midnight, and
clearing the Lubbock area well before sunrise. Low temps were also
lowered a touch for this expedited arrival. Unfortunately, such
an aggressive front raises doubt over the creditability of the
Fire Wx Watch and blowing dust forecast for Friday, but this will
be revisited in later forecasts.

Otherwise, fire personnel this evening and overnight should be
alert to this looming northerly wind shift which could rekindle
any hotspots leftover from earlier fires.


VFR with very breezy westerly winds subsiding shortly. Cold FROPA
with steady N winds will arrive much earlier than expected at all
terminals tonight, likely around 11 PM at CDS, and 1-4 AM at PVW
and LBB. Potential for additional blowing dust on Friday may be
trending to zero given this faster front.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

Winds will begin to gradually ease early this evening. A weak
Pacific cold front will traverse southeast across our CWA later
tonight. A cooler and even drier air mass will fill in behind the
front as overnight lows moderate back toward more seasonal values.
Despite cooler temperatures that normally help to mitigate fire
weather concerns, drier air coupled with another afternoon of
strong west-northwesterly surface winds will leave our area
vulnerable to wild fires as RH values drop to 10 to 15 percent
Friday afternoon. A fire weather watch remains in place for
Friday from 11am CST through 7pm CST.

Enjoy the short break from elevated winds Saturday as surface
high pressure over Oklahoma expands westward easing our surface
pressure gradient out ahead of the next upper level system. Saturday
will remain cool with temps mostly in the mid 50s under zonal
flow aloft.

Model guidance begins to diverge somewhat for the sharp and progressive
trough that digs southeast out of the Sierra Nevadas early Sunday.
Leaned primarily on the GFS which is most aggressive with the
trough as it works its way toward our area. The NAM indicates a
trough pattern that is less vigorous but would still support a
wind regime that would favor fire weather issues. The ECMWF on the
other hand smooths the flow out with weak shortwave ridging over
our latitude that would result in much reduced wind speeds than
the GFS or NAM. Monday appears to be another short break from
strong winds with a Pacific front glancing us to the east and
another stronger front pushing through Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. A Tuesday wind event had been a mainstay in recent
model runs but solutions beginning to differ confidence is low
until we see how the weekend evolves.


Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>044.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for TXZ021>023-027>030-033>036-039>042.



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