Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 291722
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MVFR FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES DIMINISHED EARLIER THIS
MORNING...THOUGH MVFR CLOUD DECKS WERE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT AT KCDS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW VFR DECKS AT KCDS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS IS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
VFR/MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COMPUTER MODELS
SHOW ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO BE SLIGHTLY DRIER AT THE SFC THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A MENTION
ATTM...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE
HINTS OF LIGHT -SHRA/-TSRA NEARING KCDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A MENTION ATTM.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AS OF 08Z...CONVECTION STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...THEN BENT
SOUTH AND WESTWARD INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. THIS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH /FORMERLY A CLOSED LOW/ THAT WAS SHEARING OUT AS IT WAS
ACCELERATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON ITS WAY TO BE
ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
WELL...WITH MUCH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR INVADING FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE A
LITTLE LONGER TO EXIT THE EASTERN ZONES...AND GIVEN THIS HAVE
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A MINIMAL STORM MENTION IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
THROUGH THIS MORNING THOUGH A BULK...IF NOT ALL...OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH NO OBVIOUS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE
UNTIL PERHAPS A MINOR WAVE ON SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED/WEAK COLD FRONT WAS TAKING ITS
TIME SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA...BUT IT IS PROGGED TO STALL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE...AND WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IT HAS PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND POCKETS OF FOG THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
MID-MORNING...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT...PARTICULARLY OUT EAST.
MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD ADVECT INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST ZONES
BEHIND THE STALLING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL LINGER IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT WILL
BE LACKING THIS AFTERNOON /AND PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE ON THE NEGATIVE
SIDE/...IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT COULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST NWP IS RATHER SPARSE WITH QPF
LOCALLY AND GENERALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE
CWA...SHOULD IT OCCUR. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE TRENDED POPS
DOWNWARD...BUT DID MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ALONG AND EAST
OF A BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK TO MEMPHIS LINE. IF/WHERE STORMS DO
DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE DOWN A NOTCH FROM YESTERDAY...
BUT MODEST INSTABILITY COULD EXIST ALONG WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...WHICH IN CONCERT COULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...WOULD EXPECT THEM TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ATTENTION
WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MAY ATTEMPT
TO PROPAGATE THIS WAY THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE INFLOW WILL TEMPER CHANCES OF CONVECTION MAKING INTO THE
FA TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA AND A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. GENERALLY FAVORED HIGHS NEAR
GUIDANCE...THOUGH DID TRIM OFF A COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S...PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 70S EAST.

LONG TERM...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY...IT APPEARS
SLIGHTLY SHARPER AND MORE ENERGETIC IN THE WRF-NAM THAN THE
GFS...AND RESULTS IN A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY SWIFT NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER WTX. THE NAM GENERATES T-STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
AND CARRIES IT SE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SREF IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE NAM BUT DOES INDICATE
SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WRN AND SRN TX PANHANDLE. WE HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR NRN ZONES. A MODERATE ULJ WILL ENHANCE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND IS SUGGESTIVE OF A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. THE MID-
LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SHALLOW AND
BROAD TROUGH MIGRATES FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY THIS WAVE
BUT THE LATEST PROGS STALL IT OUT ACROSS THE OKLA OR NRN TX
PANHANDLES. SOME JET ENERGY WILL SPREAD OVER NW TX LATE SUNDAY BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CAP WILL HOLD SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.

BEYOND MONDAY....SPRAWLING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SE WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD AND SHOULD BRING US A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SUPPORT A RETURN OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO NM AND THE RESULTING DIURNAL
CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY EDGE EWD TOWARD WTX LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT THE SIGNAL IS TOO WEAK TO ADD ANY POPS AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS...IT SHOULD GET PRETTY TOASTY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
TIGHTENING GRADIENTS LEAD TO STRONGER S-SW FLOW. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S ON THE CAP TO NEAR 100 IN THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. THEN...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES SHOW A GRADUAL
DECLINING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT HIGH TEMPS STILL
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  89  64  94  63 /  10  20  10  10  10
TULIA         64  90  67  95  68 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  91  68  95  68 /  10  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     65  92  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       68  93  70  96  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  93  67  96  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  93  68  96  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     69  95  72  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          68  94  71  97  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  96  74  98  75 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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