Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 252021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
321 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

At 230 pm, the cold front was located roughly from near Clovis NM to
near Wellington TX. T-storm activity was beginning to increase along
an axis from the northern Permian Basin into the southeast Texas
Panhandle, within a broad corridor of about 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and
25 to 35 kts of deep layer shear - supporting potential for some
storm organization and a threat of severe hail and wind gusts. Water
vapor imagery shows the base of the upper trough to the southwest of
El Paso. As the trough slowly advances east this evening it will
provide large-scale ascent while maintaining the deep-layer
transport of moisture across West Texas. the front has stalled out
for the most part, however we do anticipate that developing
thunderstorm outflows will likely push the effective front southward
some this evening. The best storm chances will be located across our
northern tier of counties, with the lowest chances in the southeast -
 farthest removed from the forcing mechanisms. Precip. water values
running around 1.2 to 1.4 inches, the focus of the front, and mean
storm motion roughly aligned with the moisture transport vector
suggest some potential for locally heavy downpours and training
of storm cells. Thunderstorm activity may continue continue
through midnight or so, especially in the vicinity of the
front/outflow boundary, then begin to wind down early Friday
morning - although some showers could linger into the morning
hours as the weakening trough crosses the area. Friday should be
warmer and drier as we see drying occur in the mid-levels.
However, weak troughing will linger over the region and NWP
suggests scattered convection will develop with another impulse
moving into central NM - some of that activity could move into the
western South Plains late in the day.

Steady height rises begin Friday night and continue through the
weekend as a zonal upper ridge sprawls westward over all of the
southern Great Plains. Subsidence will be most prevalent over the
eastern half of the CWA during this time while remaining areas enjoy
comparably better lapse rates aloft and sporadic lift along the
periphery of the ridge. As a result, PoPs most days through next
week have been refined even further to show much lower rain chances
off the Caprock. The one exception to this is Sunday which still
features enhanced rain chances of 30-40% over all of the area
despite some recent misgivings in QPF between the GFS and ECMWF.
Even with the ridge axis firmly atop the region, models do prog a
temporary uptick in PWATs as 850-700 mb winds back from SW to SE.
How well this actually translates into better rain chances is fuzzy
as the overall pattern would suggest much lower PoPs, but will give
more of a nod to the higher Superblend values for now. Otherwise,
the center of the ridge should only draw closer through midweek
while serving to lower PWATs and effectively suppress additional
storm chances. High temps were also bumped up even further by Tue
and Wed closer to the hotter Euro MOS guidance more fitting of the
pattern by that point.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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