Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 181124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  30  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  20  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  10  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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