000
FXUS64 KLUB 122350
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013


.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OUT NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. THERE IS A 10 PCT RISK OF A
VIRGA SHOWER WITHIN THE VICINITY OF KLBB/KCDS THROUGH SUNSET.
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF ANY VIRGA SHOWERS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH BASED CU FIELD WAS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON. WE ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS PLACES WEST TEXAS IN A
RATHER UNFAVORABLE POSITION WITH WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. A
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WILL
PROVIDE SOME WEAK BUT SHALLOW FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. DEW POINTS
WERE STARTING OUT LOWER TODAY ALTHOUGH WERE NOT MIXING OUT AS MUCH
AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER LEADING TO A WEAK
CAP IN PLACE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THE CU FIELD IS
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE HIGHER CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
AT ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME CONVECTION MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
REACH THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP HIGHER
THAN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS STAYING BREEZY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS
INTO THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. JDV

LONG TERM...
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT FROM NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD WEST TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE BEST ASSOCIATED
LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINING DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER OUT EAST
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE...BUT
EXACT POSITIONING OF THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE IMPACT HOW FAR WEST
STORMS DEVELOP. A 30-40 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO USHER IN
SOME HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES AND PRODUCE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
TO FOSTER UPDRAFT GROWTH. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE A STRENGTHENING
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL MAKE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS.

A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE STALLING...KEEPING WINDS AHEAD OF IT BACKED AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. DRYLINE LOOKS TO
ONCE AGAIN SET UP IN VICINITY OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT PLACEMENT WILL PRECLUDE
INSERTING POPS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE IN PLACE...LIKELY PUTTING A CAP ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BEFORE
UPPER FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
FOR MID WEEK WITH LOW TO MID 90S TAKING SHAPE BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WARM AIR FILTERS IN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  86  51  84  55 /  10   0   0  10  10
TULIA         50  88  54  85  56 /  10   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     52  88  56  85  58 /  10   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     51  86  56  84  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       55  87  58  85  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   50  84  55  84  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    50  87  56  85  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     56  92  59  87  61 /  10   0   0  10  20
SPUR          53  89  58  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     56  92  58  87  61 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26