Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 310902
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST
TODAY BRINGING CONVECTION SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS THIS
EVENING. TODAYS WEATHER PATTERN REPRESENTS MORE OF A SUMMER TIME
STRUCTURE. A STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL EXIST IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WHICH IS LIKELY WHERE STORMS WILL INITIATE. THESE STORMS WILL
BE CARRIED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY NEARLY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. IT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE ON WHETHER CONVECTION WILL REACH INTO WEST
TEXAS THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS MIXED BUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE WILL EXIST WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET FORMING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. CHANCES OF SEVERE WILL BE LOW WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON TRACK TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME
FOR THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER. BUT MONDAY AT LEAST...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN CONVECTIVE CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR EVEN PERHAPS WITHIN THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN APPEARS
MARGINAL TO MOVE STORMS ALL THE WAY INTO TEXAS...BUT SINCE LOWER
LEVELS WILL BECOME MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AGAIN WE HAVE
RETAINED IF NOT EVEN SLIGHTLY EXPANDED THE LOW THUNDER MENTION
STARTING LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS APPEARS
WILL SET UP JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANCE STORMS WILL MANAGE TO MOVE ALL THE WAY TO THE STATE LINE
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHILE CHANCES FOR STORM INITIATION OVER
THE PLAINS LIKELY WILL BE LESS.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS MODEL RUN WAS TOWARDS MORE AGREEMENT WITH
A DEEPER SLOWER VERSION OF THE NEXT SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TROUGH/LOW
NEXT WEEKEND AND THUS MORE PERSISTENT RIDGING OUR VICINITY LATE IN
THE WEEK HEADING INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. WITH TIME THIS NEXT UPPER
TROUGH MIGHT FIND A PATH TO THE EAST BUT THERE APPEARS SOME CHANCE
THAT IT WILL CUT OFF AND HOLD FIRM POSSIBLY INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEK. MORE SPECULATION...AT LEAST ONE SOLUTION...THE 00Z RUN OF
THE GFS STEERED PACIFIC TS ANDRES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LOW WITH
MOISTENING AND ENERGIZING IMPACT. BUT THIS SEEMS LIKE A LONG SHOT.
ALSO HIGHLY SPECULATIVE IS THE NEXT PROSPECTIVE PACIFIC TS WHICH
COULD MEANDER NEARER THE MEXICAN WEST COAST LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND
MIGHT BECOME A MOISTURE SOURCE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS BEYOND DAY 7. WE WILL MAINTAIN A VERY DRY LEAN THROUGH THE
FAR EXTENDED WITH LIKELY THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SINCE EARLY
APRIL...CONSISTENT WITH A SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE THOUGH STILL TEMPERED
BY THE WET GROUND AND EXPLOSIVE VEGETATIVE GROWTH. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  55  85  57 /   0  20  20  30
TULIA         79  56  84  59 /   0  10  10  30
PLAINVIEW     78  57  84  60 /   0  10  10  30
LEVELLAND     80  57  86  60 /   0  10  10  30
LUBBOCK       80  59  85  61 /   0  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   81  57  86  60 /   0  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    81  58  87  61 /   0  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     80  60  86  62 /   0  10  10  20
SPUR          80  59  85  61 /   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     80  62  86  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05


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