Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 080433
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KCDS
TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. A WEAK FRONT MAY ALSO BRING A BRIEF WIND
SHIFT INTO KCDS TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS RETURNING TO THE SE
BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY FROM A SOUTHERLY FETCH. A WIND SHIFT MAY APPROACH
KCDS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE WITH IT REACHING KCDS IS
VERY LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD IN PLACE.  WIND HAS REMAINED OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET BUT
WE DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY STORMS FIRE ANYWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

TOMORROW PRESENTS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT MODELS STILL DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT.  THE CONSENSUS IS THAT IT WILL STALL OUT NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A GRADUAL SAG SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  MODELS STILL LIKE BREAKING OUT CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE PANHANDLE AND THEN SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AROUND 7 PM.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE WILL STILL BE A CAP IN PLACE...ALBEIT A WEAK ONE...THAT SHOULD
HOLD CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.  CAP STRENGTH REMAINS
FAIRLY CONSTANT ACROSS THE AREA BUT DAYTIME MIXING REDUCES THE
AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS RIGHT AROUND SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE WARRANTED IN THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST...AS A NEARLY STATIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS WILL LEAVE
WEST TEXAS WITHIN A REGIME OF VERY LIGHT FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO YIELD MUCH MORE THAN
AFTERNOON FAIRWEATHER CUMULUS FIELDS.  THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY
PERHAPS BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TOMORROW...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE AMA/LUB CWA BORDER.
WHILE LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE
WILL YIELD ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY OF AROUND 500-1000 J/KG...MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND QPF TRENDS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED DISORGANIZED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  THUS...OPTED TO ADD SCHC POPS
TO OUR NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM FRIONA
TO CHILDRESS.  IT WOULDNT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A STORM OR TWO
TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS OUT OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS WELL... BUT VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  BEYOND TUESDAY
EVENING...WHATEVER LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WE HAD FALL EVEN
FARTHER...AS THE MONSOONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY TO OUR WEST...AND
FRONTAL STORMS NORTH AND EAST AS THE BOUNDARY RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARM BUT NOT FAR FROM NORMAL...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  89  63  88  66 /   0  10  20  10  10
TULIA         64  90  64  89  66 /   0  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  90  65  88  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     65  91  66  89  66 /   0  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       67  93  67  91  68 /   0  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   64  91  65  89  64 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    65  92  66  89  66 /   0   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     72  95  71  93  71 /   0  10  20  10  10
SPUR          68  93  69  92  70 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  97  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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