Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 160912

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
312 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

An upper level low pressure system, currently edging east-southeast
along the west coast of Mexico near Los Mochis, will punch northeast
later today all the way to near Fort Davis, Texas. Then into the
southern Rolling Plains near Aspermont later tonight. Low level
moisture remains lacking for our area, but solutions show modest
moistening later today and tonight just to our east, through the
Concho Valley and Big Country. The upper low is fairly vigorous, as
apparent by the tight spin and ongoing thunder activity over
northwest Mexico at this time. Mid level lift along with some mid
and high level clouds will spread into our southern and eastern
areas later today and tonight. Any consideration of mentionable
showers will remain just east and southeast of our area. Today will
be more mild, though we pay for it a bit with modest southwest
breezes this afternoon and evening. Tonight also a bit more mild and
a little breezy. Highs and lows look similar to the previous
forecast. RMcQueen

The upper low currently over the Gulf of California will push east
of the FA by later tomorrow. A surface low will develop and drop
southward to the FA from northeastern NM as the upper low passes and
will allow for low end breezy conditions. This low will bring with
it a weak front. While weak the front will help counter-act upper
level ridging and increased thickness and will help keep temps on
Saturday around the same as what is expected tomorrow. Surface winds
will quickly back to the southeast beginning the advection of Gulf
moisture back into the FA as our next upper low of interest pushes
inland across Baja. This next low is expected to pull in mid and
upper level sub-tropical moisture from the Pacific. This mid/upper
level moisture influx combined with low level Gulf moisture will
bring PWATs into the one inch range across much of the FA. While
CAPE will be on the lower side (150-450 J/kg ML) it will be
sufficient enough to allow for activity to be convective. 0-6 km
bulk shear of 40-65 knots would allow the possibility of some storms
becoming severe with a primary threat of hail. Given the lack of dry
air in the mid and upper level the threat for hail larger than 2
inches is small. The main probable hazard for Sunday will be heavy
rain within training storms. Given that this is still a few days out
and there is still some uncertainty within the models a mention of
severe potential will be kept out of the HWO.

The low will stay to the south of the FA and will finally push east
of the region by late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Models (both GFS and
ECMWF) are hinting at another trough approaching the region, this
time from the northwest. Models keep the upper and surface low to
our north and west but bring both close enough to create fairly
windy conditions. Winds were increased just a few knots above
guidance (20 knots forecasted) for next Thursday afternoon for now
given the forecast is a week away and change is highly likely, but
if model trends continue with the pattern then winds will have to be
increased much more.





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