Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 181743
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1243 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.AVIATION...
An upper impulse and speed maximum was crossing the area at midday
with enhanced clouds at TAF sites but showers remaining just south
and east of the airports. Best guess is this impulse will cruise
further east later today with shower chances dwindling into the
evening. Some chance showers could reform later tonight with
approach of another possible weak impulse, but not high enough
chances for any inclusion in this TAF package. Solutions agree
that low level moisture will remain more in the vicinity and
though disagree on how much low ceiling may occur, the bulk of
solutions are leaning towards at least a low MFR or IFR deck at
both KLBB and KPVW early Friday. We have added this to the current
TAF set. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1001 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/

UPDATE...
An upper level speed max was ejecting across the southern Rolling
Plains late this morning, in tandem with the upper trough pulling
into western Kansas, and was accounting for the increase in
showers and a few thunderstorms this area. Activity was likely
near it`s peak coverage and intensity at this time, and should be
tapering into the afternoon. The big question will be if passage
of this speed max to the east will effectively kill additional
shower development later this afternoon into the evening. Short
term solutions are not very keen on much expansive coverage later
today, so we will be following to see if the trends stick.
RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/

AVIATION...
KLBB AND KCDS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEEING MVFR STRATUS
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS CYCLE. THERE
IS ABOUT A 10 PCT CHANCE FOR IFR AT KLBB AND 20 PCT AT KCDS
THROUGH 15Z. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF KLBB BUT
COULD IMPACT JUST ABOUT ANY TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BECOMES
SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A transition of flow regimes continues early this morning with a
pronounced upper level high up near Churchill MB with a training
trough back into northern California. WV imagery is depicting a
circulation just NW of the Great Salt Lake which does not look to
be resolved in global models. A lobe of energy along the
southwestern periphery of the Canadian low looks to sharpen over
the next 24 hours as it makes its way into the lower 48.

H2 jet max is initially positioned with our CWFA in the subsidence
region.  However, over time, the speed max will slid northward and
help drive lift across the southeastern zones this afternoon.  This
lift looks to be short lived, however, as the nose of another jet
max over the desert southwest will approach and put us back on the
subsident side of the feature by about 06z.  So, we should see
thunderstorms develop out across the Rolling Plains.  Some of the
higher resolution guidances suggest that we`ll see initiation before
noon.  However, given the position of the upper level jet max, am
skeptical and will resultingly blend with the neighbors who will
have a better shot.  Sufficient MUCAPE could lead to a few storms
pulsing to become strong though shear is virtually non-extant.

LONG TERM...
Latest model runs have begun to build some consensus for the
timing of a cold front that first enters the northern Texas
Panhandle Friday evening, moves through our CWA and stalls across
Pecos River Valley by Saturday evening...then begins to lift back
to the north for the beginning of next week. The front will be the
source of increased cloud cover, cooler temps and generally
unsettled pattern through the middle of next week.

There is a slight chance of precip across most of the area for the
passing of the cold front late Friday into early Saturday, though
best chances will be across Rolling Plains where deeper moisture
is located and has struggled to move up on the Caprock. Despite
lacking rainfall for much of the South Plains, the post frontal
air mass will not disappoint with cooler temps as highs will
generally be in the low to mid 80s for the weekend and the
beginning of next week.

Blended guidance was aggressive with precip chances associated
with the stationary front lifting back northward for Sunday and
Monday, decided to scale back POPS somewhat given uncertainty at
this point of how the surface front and progged tropical type
wave will interact. Shortwave ridging will help increase temps by
middle of next week toward seasonal norms though the precip
pattern remain unsettled...welcomed news given the need for rain
across the region.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/05



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