Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 180809
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
309 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Morning low clouds and possibly some fog across the Rolling Plains
and the southeast Panhandle are about the only item of interest
today. Short wave ridging aloft should keep thunder at bay. Morning
low level moisture will mix out a bit with afternoon dew points
ranging from the 40s on the Caprock to the lower to mid 50s east.
Increasing heights and thicknesses point to warmer temperatures for
the area. That increase may be tempered some across the east
depending on how long low clouds hang on. Overnight should be quiet.
Breezy south winds should keep temperatures a bit on the mild
side.

.LONG TERM...
Though under more zonal-like flow aloft, Wednesday will be on the
warm side as we will be situated under the axis of a thickness
ridge. A fropa is still expected Thursday but will only cool of
the northern half of the FA as the upper level low driving the
front quickly pushes off to the Great Lakes region. Temps will
warm back up slightly on Friday as surface flow turns back to the
southeast ahead of another approaching upper low and cold front.
Current model runs continue to bring the low further northward by
Friday afternoon into Saturday. This would limit precip chances
and is reflected in the forecast. One noted difference is the GFS
has slowed down on the progression of the upper low with the upper
low closing off as it enters eastern CO while slowly pushing
eastward across southern KS Saturday. The low is also progged to
strengthen as it pushes eastward. The ECMWF wishes to wait on
closing the low off until it reaches eastern KS. The solution
offered by the GFS would make Saturday a very breezy day. Wind
speeds have been increased for Friday ahead of the fropa and
Saturday behind the front. Forecasted winds have been kept below
the bullish (but not necessarily wrong) MOS guidance mainly due to
the continued uncertainty with the final evolution of the upper
low.

The weekend will be cool with highs in the 60s Saturday and 70s
Sunday. Temps will warm back up on Monday as upper ridging pushes
back into the region. The GFS wishes to let Monday be another breezy
day with an afternoon fropa, but the ECMWF wishes to keep things
more on the quieter side. Both models hint at another upper
trough/low by mid to late next week beyond the forecast period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07/51



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