Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 262031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
331 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

The weak front that dipped into the area this morning has brought an
uptick in moisture and modestly cooler temperatures to the area
versus 24 hours, particularly across the northern zones. Even so,
temperatures were still on the high side of average, varying from
the middle and upper 80s north to lower to middle 90s south as of
1930Z. The dry and breezy southwesterly winds are still expected to
spread northeastward across much of the Caprock through early this
evening, though the northeast zones should see light winds and
upslope flow develop and persist well into the night. The dry air
that will be in place up on the Caprock will allow for efficient
cooling tonight with lows likely back down in the 50s and lower 60s
for most spots, while further east lows will be primarily in the
middle and upper 60s.

Dry westerly flow is expected to win out across the entire CWA
tomorrow as the dryline mixes off to the east under 50 knot west-
southwest mid-level flow. This will provide even warmer weather than
today (though probably not as hot as yesterday) with highs likely
well up into the 90s on the Caprock while triple digits return to
the lower elevations. The upper low centered over Manitoba will
move very little through Saturday night, but a couple of shortwave
troughs translating around its southern flank (including one
emerging from the central Rockies) will propel a cold front
southward through the South Plains tomorrow night. Unfortunately
pre-frontal moisture will be meager at best and likely not support
any convection locally. We could see a brief bout of post-frontal
stratus early Sunday though additional dry advection will quickly
clear skies. The dry weather will persist over West Texas Sunday
and Monday and perhaps much of Tuesday as the slowing front and
any meaningful precipitation remains downstate.

It does appear that the tide may finally change by the middle of
next week as GOM moisture begins to return to the region while at
the same time one or more weaknesses slowly approach from the
west. This pattern will provide increased cloud cover along with
periodic thunderstorm chances, perhaps starting as early as late
Tuesday and continuing on through the remainder of the week.
Relatively weak wind fields will likely limit storm organization,
but increased instability (plus the fact we are moving into
climatological peak of the severe weather season) will likely
support a few strong to severe storms during the afternoon and
evening hours. Additionally, PWATS climbing over 1 inch along with
slow storm motions could support a heavy rain threat at times,
though exactly when and where will have to be ironed out as we
move into next week. For now we have maintained chance PoPs from
Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will drop back to or even a
few degrees below average behind the front Sunday and they should
stay through much/all of next week.


Breezy winds have been slow to develop today but we could still
see a period of elevated fire weather across much of the Caprock
late this afternoon into early this evening. Thus a fire danger
statement remains in effect for spots on the Caprock through 8 pm.
A return to hotter, drier and breezy conditions will result in a
round of elevated to occasionally critical fire weather Saturday
afternoon and evening before cooler conditions follow a cold front
by early Sunday.




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