Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 270405
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1105 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
STILL LOOKING AT THE DISTINCT PROBABILITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH AND NW ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WITH IT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. MODELS BEGINNING TO AGREE
ON THE BEST PERIOD FOR THAT COMING AROUND SUNRISE AND PERSISTING
INTO MID-MORNING. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL COME THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THAT PLAYS OUT IS FAIRLY
LOW ATTM. WILL LEAVE PRECIP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AND ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS TO BETTER DEVELOP MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
DRYLINE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA WITH RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT UNLIKELY. FOCUS SHIFTS TO
POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MONRING WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW COMES BACK THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN UP TO KLBB AND KPVW...BUT ALSO WITH THE RETREATING
DRYLINE/THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FROM NW TEXAS TO AFFECT KCDS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM WITH POOR MODEL TRACK RECORD OF LATE. WILL
MAKE NO SIG CHANGES TO INHERITED SET OF TAFS AND REEVALUATE WITH
THE 06Z ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AT 2 PM...THE DRYLINE WAS STILL LOCATED FROM NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY TO
NEAR MEMPHIS...AND HAD NOT MOVED MUCH FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
HOWEVER...SWERLY WINDS WERE SPREADING EAST OF THE DRYLINE POSITION
.DISPLACING CONVERGENCE FARTHER TO THE EAST. DESPITE THIS...A LINE
OF TCU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND ALSO ACROSS STONEWALL
COUNTY. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS
THE SE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH GREATER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. MLCAPES ARE RUNNING AROUND 2K
J/KG ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...THE STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT FROM MULTI-
CELLULAR STORMS.

THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE A STRONG PUSH TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE UNDERNEATH
BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AND EXPAND NWD OUT OF THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLY WED
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS LOOKING A LITTLE
TRICKY. WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING TSTM
ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY PUSH INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND
POSSIBLY THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOCALLY SO THAT WE COULD
SEE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH OKLAHOMA
ACTIVITY AND THEREFORE DO NOT BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA....SO
WE DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP
CHANCES PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE
IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC W-SW FLOW WILL VEER NWLY THIS WEEKEND
DOWNSTREAM OF A BURGEONING UA RIDGE PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER WEST
TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...ROUTINE BOUTS OF PRECIP
REMAIN IN THE OFFING BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUN.

WEDNESDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH MINOR RIDGING ALOFT IN SW FLOW WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY IN PROGRESS ACROSS WRN OK. NAM-WRF
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS BLOSSOMING THERE EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND SENDING A LARGE OUTFLOW SW INTO OUR NERN COUNTIES SHORTLY
BEFORE 00Z COMPLETE WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT. REMAINING MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO SHOW SUCH A BULLISH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSION AND
THIS RAISES DOUBTS AS TO THE COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL STORMS ACROSS OUR
CWA. OPTED TO SHRINK POPS ACROSS THE WEST WED NIGHT AND RAISE VALUES
IN THE NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO THE EARLIER THREAT OF STORMS IN WRN OK.

WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...A BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY WHICH MAY NULLIFY THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ECM AND GFS DO HOWEVER FAVOR
AIRMASS RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER WAVE COMPLETE WITH RATHER VOLATILE SBCAPE VALUES AOA 3500
J/KG. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT A BROAD MENTION OF LIKELY POPS ALL DAY
THURSDAY WHICH COULD REQUIRE SERIOUS REVISIONS IN LATER FORECASTS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT QUIETER BEHIND THURSDAY/S TROUGH UNTIL A
CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT COMPLETE WITH MORE POPS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...MOST OF WHICH LOOK TO BE TIED TO SHARPER POST-
FRONTAL/ELEVATED FN ASCENT FROM 850-750MB. COOL/DRIER SURFACE
RIDGING THEN INFILTRATES THE REGION BY LATE SAT SERVING TO LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES DESPITE ANOTHER S/W TROUGH - THIS TIME ARRIVING IN
WEAK NW FLOW. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE BY SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
SHOULD SPUR SOME MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT OVERALL WE SUSPECT THE COLD FRONT MAY PROVE
MORE BULLISH AND END UP DISPLACING THIS MOIST ASCENT FARTHER SOUTH.
DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS APPEAR IN ORDER EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER
RISING HEIGHTS AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  84  59  77 /  10  10  20  60
TULIA         57  84  61  77 /  10  20  30  60
PLAINVIEW     59  84  64  77 /  10  10  30  60
LEVELLAND     60  86  65  78 /  10  10  20  60
LUBBOCK       61  86  66  79 /  10  10  20  60
DENVER CITY   61  87  65  79 /  10  10  20  60
BROWNFIELD    61  87  67  79 /  10  10  20  60
CHILDRESS     62  86  68  81 /  10  20  40  60
SPUR          62  86  67  81 /  10  20  30  60
ASPERMONT     65  88  70  83 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07



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