Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 181110
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
610 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.AVIATION...
Cigs and Vis cratering this morning at all terminals as fog bank
spreads south and eastward. Conditions will be slow to improve
throughout the morning. Expect amendments as conditions warrant.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Our so called "cold" front from Friday had slowed up/stalled out
just south of the forecast area this morning along a line from
Andrews to Snyder up through Chillicothe. Behind the front,
northeast winds, settling northeast winds had ushered in moisture
which was beginning to develop fog across portions of western OK. As
the morning progresses, low stratus and fog is expected to stretch
across much of the forecast area, with the stratus remaining off the
Caprock. With surface ridging developing over the Texas Panhandle
during the morning hours, light upslope winds should allow these
features to sustain through much of the morning. However, with a
return to more southerly flow by the noon hour, and the upper ridge
building overhead, skies are expected to clear in the afternoon.
With the slower clearing of skies expected as well as a noted slight
weakness in the ridge that forms across the FA this afternoon,
went just slightly below guidance temperatures. Sunday morning
could see a return of patchy fog, though have chosen to keep
mention of this feature out of this forecast package attm as we
will have to see how much moisture we hold onto today.

LONG TERM...
A pair of upper level ridges will affect the central CONUS through
next Wednesday before a trough comes ashore the Pacific Coast.  This
trough is somewhat slower in this morning`s guidance with reasonable
agreement between the GFS/ECM solutions.  If these solutions hold,
it will delay the anticipated wind event perhaps into Friday.

We will see a sloshing, but benign, dryline during the first part of
the extended with breezy conditions most afternoons. Sunday
afternoon looks to have elevated to near critical fire weather
potential though wind speeds look to remain below red flag
criteria at this time. A cold front is expected to push into the
panhandle but stall before making it south of I-40. However, into
Tuesday, a the front back- doors into the region before washing
out on Wednesday. At this point, it appears convection may break
out east of the CWFA on Wednesday evening. Some risk of TSTMS
firing just east of the dryline in our area are suggested Thursday
night. Climatology would suggest that fire weather concerns would
likely be a greater threat for this period. Overall, will not get
terribly bullish on the latter extended features given the run-
to- run inconsistency beyond Wednesday. Some weather changes look
likely, but on which day remains questionable.

Until then, expect mostly warm and breezy conditions with highs well
above seasonal norms.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/74



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