Area Forecast Discussion
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706
FXUS64 KLUB 201141
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
541 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.AVIATION...
Breezy westerly winds early this morning will increase to 20-25
knots, with gusts near 35 knots, from late morning through the
afternoon hours, before dropping back down to breezy levels this
evening. The strong winds could loft a little blowing dust, though
VFR is expected to prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

SHORT TERM...
The atmosphere sure isn`t attempting to disguise what is in store
for us today, with southwesterly winds currently sustained at 15 to
25 mph over much of the CWA at 09Z. These gusty winds are being
supplied by a compact shortwave lifting through the Panhandles and
the 50 knot LLJ (sampled under 1000 ft AGL by the WTM SODARs) it has
induced. We do expect the winds to decrease modestly through mid-
morning as this shortwave quickly lifts into Kansas and the LLJ
atrophies. The exception will be in the favored locations for the
winds to surface in this flow regime just off the edge of the
Caprock centered around Caprock Canyons State Park where winds may
stay elevated much of the morning. Elsewhere, winds will increase
again late morning into the afternoon hours as the next shortwave
trough currently traversing the Four Corners emerges across the
Panhandles. Sustained westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph will be fairly
common, though the northwestern and north-central zones, where the
strongest pressure gradient and winds aloft are progged to pass,
will likely stray into wind advisory territory (sustained in excess
of 30 mph). Given this, we will issue a wind advisory, effective
from 16Z to 00Z, for the northwestern South Plains and southwest and
south-central Texas Panhandle.

Outside of the wind, the strong downsloping winds and plenty of
insolation will lead to another mild day. Highs will range from the
upper 50s northwest to upper 60s and lower 70s off the Caprock. The
mild and windy conditions could briefly elevate the fire danger,
though RH values are expected to remain above 25%, which will temper
the overall threat.

Winds will weaken by early evening but remain on the breezy side
overnight. This will secure another mild night by January standards.
In addition, the fast westerly tropospheric flow will carry in
improved mid-level Pacific moisture tonight. This will mean periods
of clouds and even a few possible mid-level showers, though dry low-
levels will mean mostly virga, at least through tonight.

LONG TERM...
Saturday is still shaping up to be breezy to windy with a chance
of light rain across the forecast area. An upper-trough will
be swinging across the four-corners region with a strong upper-
level jet spreading out of New Mexico over West Texas. The jet
core will be directed to our south, however we`ll still see
850-700mb mean wind speeds around 35 to 50 kts overhead as the
trough wraps up into a closed low over the Texas Panhandle.
Forecast X-sections suggest that plenty of mid-level moisture will
accompany this system and we should see considerable cloud cover
move across the area during the day. Cold pocket aloft will lead
to some modest mid-level instability and likely generate some
virga shower and rain shower activity. A dry sub-cloud air should
limit precipitation to very light amounts. As for wind speeds, it
does look like a wind advisory will be need for much of the
forecast area for sustained winds around 30-35 mph, although the
cloud cover may be thick enough at times to interfere with mixing.
Counter to this, the rain shower activity may enhance transfer to
the surface, so we could end up with more gustiness in the winds
than usual.

As the upper-low moves southeast into north Texas Saturday evening,
some moisture may wrap back into out north-central or northeast
counties. There may be a small window for some very light snow
accumulations centered around Swisher County Saturday night as
temps fall to near freezing. At this time we don`t expect anything
more than trace snow amounts. Wind turn to the northwest Saturday
night and it still be breezy to start out Sunday as a dry front
eases through. Winds will finally go light late in the day. It
will be cooler Sunday with highs mainly in the 50s. However,
temperatures will rebound quickly on Monday as flow quickly swings
around to the west-southwest downstream of the next upper-level
system moving through the inter-mountain west. Wind speeds will
begin to ramp up again and downslope warming should push temps
back up into the 60s and lower 70s. At this time it looks like
Tuesday could be a windy day as a strong mid-level jet traverses
West Texas.

A stronger push of cold air is expected to move through Tuesday
night with temperatures falling back into the 40s for highs on
Thursday and Friday. At least the winds will be quite a bit
lighter on those days.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for TXZ021>024-027-028.

&&

$$

23/33/23



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