Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 192026
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
326 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Subtle wave moving westward along the Texas coast has helped push
some deeper low and mid level moisture into the region this
afternoon. Southeasterly winds have also been a more present feature
with the center of the the summertime ridge to our east over
Oklahoma. This pattern will remain with us through early tomorrow as
the ridge then begins to expand westward with time. An increase in
heights and temperatures aloft along with eventual drying of the
atmosphere will result in afternoon highs a couple degrees warmer
than today. Some residual mid level moisture may provide a partly
sunny start to the day but the clouds aren`t expected to have much
overall impact on sensible weather. The surface trough to our
northwest deepens a bit more which should result in a slightly
stronger southerly breeze on Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...
Broad mid-summer ridge centered near the Ozarks is still forecast to
migrate slowly westward later this week while diminishing in girth
and flattening. This process is largely tied to a potent trough
tracking along the 49th parallel from Thursday through Sunday.
Despite the weakening trend of the ridge, high temps locally are
still expected to peak in intensity by Saturday as winds near the
700 mb layer veer from their recent cooler/moist southeasterly
direction to a drier and hotter southwest component. MOS and bias
corrected models are trending even hotter with Saturday`s highs
lending more certainty to 100+ readings area wide. As the
aforementioned trough drives a cold front south into KS and CO on
Saturday, there is still some opportunity for nocturnal storms to
wander south-southeast close to our northern counties. Earlier
discussion citing anemic NW flow downstream of the high is still a
valid argument for keeping PoPs dry; however, this theme could
easily change by early next week as a modest layer of monsoonal
moisture shifts atop the region while the high relocates even
farther to our west.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

24/93



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