Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 270838
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
338 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE. NET THICKNESS CHANGE WILL BE CLOSE TO NIL
WHILE SW COMPONENT TO WINDS RETURNS. RESULT SHOULD BE HIGH TEMPS
NEAR THOSE OF YESTERDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LEE SFC TROUGH AND MODEST INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SRN NM TO THE
WRN TX AND OKLA PANHANDLES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER ALONG IT
SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTN THEN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS ONTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND A SFC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO INHERITED
POPS FOR BOTH THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
THE INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN CHECK AS MEAN
RIDGING ALOFT DRAWS CLOSER EVERY DAY BEFORE SETTLING OVERHEAD BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE WORTHY
OF NOTE CONCERNS TOMORROW/S PRECIP CHANCES ALONG A DECAYING COLD
FRONT. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...THIS FRONT WILL BE
SUFFERING FROM A LACK OF BACKGROUND SUPPORT AS A MINOR TROUGH
EXITS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
NONETHELESS... MODELS POSITION THIS FRONT FAVORABLY ACROSS OUR CWA
BY PEAK HEATING WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GARNER SOME STORMS IN
LIGHT OF MODEST CIN. IN LIGHT OF RECENT FROPAS THAT ARRIVED AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE...WIND GRIDS AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDE TO THIS FRONT BY 21Z FRIDAY. BEST STORM
CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO TAKE AIM IN THE NELY UPSLOPE ALONG THE
MESCALERO ESCARPMENT OF ERN NM... THOUGH SOME OF THESE COULD
EASILY DRIFT SEWD INTO OUR WRN COUNTIES.

AFTER BOTH THE FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCES WASH OUT SATURDAY...THE SEMI-
DIRTY RIDGE AXIS WILL CRAWL EASTWARD AND IN THE PROCESS WEAKEN 20-30
DECAMETERS. BRUNT OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL RESIDE WEST
OF THIS RIDGE AXIS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO POPS REMAIN SILENT.
ALL MODELS BY THIS POINT KEEP A BROAD TUTT CELL FROM THE GOMEX WELL
TO OUR EAST...BUT THE GFS STILL ADVECTS SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WWD TO
NEAR THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR FROM TUE-WED. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A
SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT...SO SUPERBLEND PRECIP WAS SCALED BACK TO
BELOW MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93



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