Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 272037
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
337 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE THIS AFTN WAS COMPRISED OF UA TROUGHING
ACROSS THE MID-WEST...AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND
THUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOME RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPILLING IN ACROSS THE CWA AS
A RESULT OF THE FLOW ALOFT. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PROGRESSING ESE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAVE ALLOWED FOR A COOL SFC
RIDGE TO PUSH IN A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ACROSS A SWEETWATER
TO BROWNFIELD TO NEAR MORTON LINE PER 20Z METARS. AS SUCH...E-SE SFC
WINDS /OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE/ WERE NOTED AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE COLD FRONT TEMPS MANAGED TO STILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS FRONT MORE OR LESS REMAINING WHERE IT
IS NOW THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A SUBTLE
WESTWARD PUSH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS
/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS/...DUE TO A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS ERN NM THAT
WILL PROMOTE SFC WINDS TO VEER TO THE W-SW.

THE UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL COMMENCE TO MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY...
THOUGH IT WILL BE DE-AMPLIFYING AS AN EWRD PROPAGATING NW PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE MOVES ONSHORE. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW WILL SHIFT SE
TO ACROSS THE FA DURING THE AFTN...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF N-NE SFC WINDS. EXPECT THIS WIND SHIFT TO HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON TEMPS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE...
RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 80S /OR SOME 6-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY/. SO GET READY FOR A RATHER PLEASANT DAY TO START THE
WEEKEND. /29


.LONG TERM...
A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
WILL SEND A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA...
WITH SOLUTIONS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER. FRONT SHOULD ENTER
NORTHERN ZONES BY MID SUNDAY MORNING...CENTRAL ZONES APPROXIMATELY
MIDDAY...AND EXIT SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. TIMING
REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR NAILING DOWN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AS MORNING
COOLING BEHIND FRONT NORTHERN ZONES COULD BE EARLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
DECENT RECOVERY BY LATE IN THE DAY. LIKEWISE...MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON PASSAGE SOUTHERN ZONES LIKELY WOULD BE AFTER A QUICK
WARMUP THROUGH THE 80S AND EVEN POSSIBLY 90S SOME AREAS. WE HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS JUST A BIT NORTHWEST AND WARMED VERY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO APPROACH AT
LEAST LOW-END WINDY CRITERIA AND CANNOT RULE OUT YET PERHAPS EVEN
STRONGER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS PROBABLY GREATER THAN 30
KNOTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 6 HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE
SHOVE ON THE ORDER OF 10 MB NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FACTOR SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS BEING
REPLACED MIDDAY TO MID AFTERNOON. THERE STILL COULD BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS HUMIDITIES FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 25 PERCENT BEFORE COOLING OR WINDS DIMINISH
THREAT.

THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO THE SOUTH AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IMPROVING INTO
THE UPPER 40S LOW 50S MONDAY. WRF NAM INDICATING DRY-LINE SET UP
LATE MONDAY ALONG NEW MEXICO BORDER AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ATTEMPT AT MOIST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS THOUGH FORCING AT THAT TIME
STILL APPEARS WEAK. WE HAVE RETAINED DRY FORECAST LATE MONDAY.

BETTER LIFT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...FAVORING SOUTHERN ZONES...AS A MOSTLY OPEN WAVE EDGES
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEST TEXAS. SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE THOUGH STILL NOT CONVINCING
ENOUGH TO ELEVATE INTO MORE BOLD THUNDER CHANCES. STILL...WE HAVE
EDGED MENTION JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR NOW TO MATCH THE MODEL
TRENDS WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
TUESDAY. DRYNESS IN MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE ALSO STILL APPEARS TO BE A
LIMITATION FOR MORE FAVORABLE CHANCES AND TOTALS.

MILDER AND DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BREAK THROUGH ONCE AGAIN
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT AMPLIFIED PACIFIC TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY
AND BREEZY AT LEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY THOUGH
MAJOR SOLUTIONS DISAGREE REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE...WHILE
THE ECMWF BRINGS A TRAILING WAVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY DELAYING A STRONGER COLD FRONT ABOUT A
DAY BEHIND THE GFS SOLUTION. WE FAVOR BLENDS FOR THE DISTANT
EXTENDED FOR NOW BUT CANNOT AGREE ON PRECIPITATION LATE WEEK GIVEN
THE LARGE DIFFERENCES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        39  80  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         40  82  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     40  83  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     44  85  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       44  85  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   45  84  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  85  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     44  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          45  85  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     47  87  54  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05


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