Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 191137 CCA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
639 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED ZONES AND ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT
ABOUT RAPID FORMATION OF 1KFT FOG DECK WHICH SHOULD PERSIST AT
LEAST UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO MIX OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FIRST CONCERN WILL BE IFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB. STRATUS/FOG FORMED
RAPIDLY EARLIER THIS MORNING AS MOIST AIR STREAMED INTO THE
REGION. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST FOG MAY DISSIPATE AROUND 14Z
THOUGH GIVEN DEPTH AND INTENSITY...MAY PERSIST AN HOUR OR TWO
LONGER.  UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE CENTRAL US RIDGE ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE TSTMS MAINLY S OF KCDS AND E OF KLBB THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE/EXTENT EXISTS AND WILL PUT LIKELIHOOD OF
CONVECTION ABOUT 15 PCT AT KLBB AND 20 PCT AT KCDS MAINLY BETWEEN
21Z AND 02Z. CONFIDENCE NUMBERS PRECLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION OF TSTM
IN TAF ATTM THOUGH TRENDS MAY DICTATE OTHERWISE LATER TODAY.
STRONG DOWNBURSTS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE INVOF STORMS.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHINESS ON BOTH
COASTS WITH RIDGING ALONG 100W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAKNESS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.  BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS EVIDENT
FROM NWRN MEXICO INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH ANOTHER LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS ACROSS THE SWRN 2/3RDS OF TEXAS.
THE BEST...ALBEIT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIV-Q FIELDS WILL REMAIN OVER SE
TX THOUGH A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SOCAL LOW
WILL PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT MAINLY TO OUR NORTHWEST.  MORE
IMPORTANTLY THOUGH MAY BE THE FACT THAT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE
WEAK IN AN AIRMASS SUCH AS WE HAVE THIS MORNING.  GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT MONSOON-DERIVED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING MOST NOTABLY AT H7.  THIS WILL HELP
AID IN DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ESTABLISH
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION THOUGH SUBSIDENT INVERSION AROUND 550MB
MAY SERVE TO SUPPRESS UPDRAFTS INITIALLY.  WITH ANEMIC SHEAR
PROFILES...FAIRLY SHORT DURATION PULSE STORMS WITH OUTFLOW
REGENERATION PROCESSES APPEAR PROBABLE WITH STRONG WIND GUST
POTENTIAL.  INSOFAR AS SPATIAL EXTENT...THIS IS A BIT TRICKY.  A
WEAK AND BROAD MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP PULL DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.  THETA E FIELDS
FROM THE SFC TO H7 DO SHOW A MINOR MAXIMUM FROM S TO N ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL ZONES.  HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...
WED WILL START OFF WITH A DEVELOPING LEE TROF AS A CLOSED LOW OVER
SOCAL BEGINS ITS PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THIS TROF OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE GREATEST COVERAGE. FOR
NOW THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES LINE UP
WELL WITH THE FORECAST AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY BEYOND WED NIGHT ON HOW THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL
WILL EVOLVE. THE GFS OPENS THE LOW AND KICKS IT EASTWARD FAIRLY
QUICKLY WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF BOTH HOLD THE LOW BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA UNTIL FRI MORNING...WHICH SEEMS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE THAN THE GFS. THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROF WILL STILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES ON THUR WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THUR EVENING. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE AS ENERGY FROM THE LOW WILL STILL BE
TO THE WEST OF THE FA. AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...WE WILL BE IN A
PATTERN OF HAVING A TROF TO OUR WEST AND RIDGE TO OUR EAST. USUALLY
THIS WOULD BE A FAIRLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH WILL BULGE JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN WOULD BE
WANTED FOR STORMS WHILE THE TROF STAYS JUST A BIT TOO FAR NORTH.
WHILE WE MAY NOT BENEFIT FULLY FROM THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AREAS
TO OUR WEST AND NORTH SHOULD RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINS INTO MID
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES...POSSIBLY JUST A BIT ABOVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  64  90  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20
TULIA         90  66  92  65  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     89  65  91  66  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     89  64  91  65  91 /  10  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       91  68  91  68  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   91  65  91  66  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    91  65  92  66  91 /  10  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     94  71  97  71  98 /  20  20   0   0  10
SPUR          92  66  94  68  95 /  30  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     96  70  95  71  95 /  30  20   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>023-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

99/26/26







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