Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 012313
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ENTIRE PERIOD. MAY HAVE BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS TOMORROW MORNING AGAIN...BUT WILL ADDRESS WITH NEXT TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR AREA IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE APPRECIABLY...ALONG WITH A MODEST SURFACE
TROUGH WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE...AND DEEP MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL THEN WILL REMAIN JUST TO
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. WE WILL RETAIN DRY AND MILD FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EXTENDED. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SEASONABLY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EVEN SO THERE ARE A
FEW CAVEATS. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EDGE JUST FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS MAY ALLOW THE EASTERN EXPANSE
OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO BEND OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THIS BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /INFUSED BY A TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E...THOUGH
DIRECTED MOSTLY TO OUR WEST/...COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SURFACE
TROUGH AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MIGHT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FROM LATE WEEK RIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE TROUGH PASSAGE THOUGH AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES NORTH TOO. BEYOND MONDAY...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ON HOW
FAST OR IF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF CURRENTLY BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT ONE OR MORE DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TOPPING THE RIDGE COULD TRAVERSE THE CWA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
STORMS NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND WE HAVE
ACCEPTED IT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF THE UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BREAK
DOWN THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE CONFINED FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  62  91 /  10  10  10  20
TULIA         62  91  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  92  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  91  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  95  70  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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