Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 271730 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.AVIATION...
Wind speeds will ramp up at KPVW and KLBB between 18 and 19 UTC
with sustained surface winds expected to be out of the W-SW in
the 23 to 28 kt range through the afternoon. Some light blowing
dust is expected but VFR conditions should prevail. Light virga
showers may produce erratic wind gusts in the vicinity of KPVW
and KCDS in the afternoon and early evening. A cold front will
move through this evening bringing a northerly wind shift with
wind speeds decreasing quickly after about 01 UTC/8 pm.

&&

.UPDATE...
Strong winds have been slow to develop across the Caprock but
West Texas Mesonet observations at 12:15 pm show the winds picking
up quickly along the state line. We still expect windy conditions
for much of the afternoon across the western portions of the
Caprock and a Wind Advisory remains in effect. In addition,
isolated light virga/rain showers could develop and move across
our northern counties but we will keep PoPs below mention in the
forecast as we aren`t expecting any accumulations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

AVIATION...
Veering low level flow with increasing winds will cover short term
TAFs, with flow less veered at KCDS. Winds should ramp up
strongest around 18z to 01z today and may lead to minor visibility
restrictions, especially at KLBB but chose not to mention for now.
Mid level moisture may lead to thickening clouds later today near
KCDS, perhaps with light virga. Thunder mainly north of KCDS is
not out of the question late afternoon into the evening. A weak
cold front will gradually shift winds to northwest and northerly
overnight but with VFR dominating. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

SHORT TERM...
A potent upper level low pressure trough system will gradually
traverse the Rockies today and tonight, with a belt of stiff mid
and upper level winds crossing our area. Details of the mid level
wind maximum and mixing depth today have added uncertainty to
expected surface wind speed strength and extent. But many areas on
the Caprock should be near Wind Advisory levels during the
afternoon. Solutions generally agree the initial strong winds will
develop over our northwestern zones, while a secondary maximum
takes hold later in the afternoon across our southwestern zones.
Whether a significant lull in-between these two areas occur, and
if the winds in the northwest sustain through the late afternoon,
are uncertain. GFS solutions continue showing deeper mixing than
the WRF/NAM with our lean towards but not all the way to the GFS
strength.

Solutions also showing a weak cold front edging southward late into
our northern fringes late in the afternoon, then southward during
the evening passing much of the area by about 4 am Friday. The lower
atmosphere certainly will be dry in advance of the front, and
synoptic lift will only be able to saturate a narrow zone in the mid
levels with precipitation efficiency very dubious. But, post frontal,
we can see perhaps some consideration for light showers edging near
to our northeastern border in particular. For now, we have slightly
expanded sub-mentionable probabilities, though, no explicit shower
mention this forecast.

Otherwise, few changes from previous especially regarding highs today
which will be considerably warmer than Wednesday, and then cooling
off a bit again tonight. RMcQueen

LONG TERM...
Much better consensus on depth, timing and track of upper level
low set to shift south out of the central Rockies and through the
Four-Corners region Friday into Saturday then into Central Plains
on Sunday. Dry slot continues to be a concern with POPs across
much of the South Plains and portions of the Rolling Plains. First
strong wave pivoting around base of closed low late Friday night
and early Saturday would appear to keep much of the South Plains
on the dry side. By Saturday evening the system bottoms out over
eastern New Mexico, with the NAM and GFS indicating dry air
across the southwest and southern South Plains while the ECMWF
progs little to know dry slot. Leaned toward the prior and still
trimmed back what SB populated for Saturday night early Sunday.

Continued the snow/snow mix across the extreme southwest Texas
Panhandle for the same time period as profiles still indicate up
to an inch of snow in Parmer County. The system quickly clears out
by midday Sunday though high temps Sunday will still be well below
normal with little time to recover. Lows on Monday will be
slightly more mild to begin the day and then eventually climb into
the 70s and 80s by Monday afternoon. The system that looked to
brush our CWA to the north and east midweek has begun to track
even farther north, though the ECMWF still hints at some precip
chances, as the base of the upper trough positions itself across
our CWA with but with a cold front moving through Wednesday and
little moisture recovery from the south or southeast, it seems
unlikely attm.

FIRE WEATHER...
Strong westerly winds, very warm temperatures, and very low
afternoon relative humidity will lead to elevated fire danger
conditions today. Fuels continue transitioning towards green near
the western border, but probably still other areas on the Caprock,
while ERC levels have improved but only near normal. We do not
believe fuels can support a widespread wild fire threat today,
though we expect the weather portion to lead to sustained Red Flag
conditions otherwise. So, a day to carefully monitor is
advised. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021-022-027-028-
033>035-039-040.

&&

$$

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