Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 222338 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT KLBB AND KCDS AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. EXPECT TO SEE LOW MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP AT KLBB LATER TONIGHT AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT THEY COULD DROP INTO IFR RANGE BETWEEN 12 TO 15Z. CONFIDENCE
RIGHT NOW IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE BUT
MAY INCLUDE IN THE 06Z ROUND. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BACK INTO VFR RANGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO HAVE
SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NEAR THE KCDS TERMINAL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SCNTL NEW MEXICO DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BUT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THAT LATTER TROUGH MOVES TO
THE NORTHERN WILL SEE AN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH BASICALLY
TERMINATING WITH THE WEAK LOW THAT BY THAT TIME WILL HAVE DRIFTED
OVER WEST TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM NORTH OF ROSWELL TO WEST OF ANDREWS.
COULD SEE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS DRIFT EWD WITH TIME AND MOVE INTO
WRN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING. OTHER POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIP COMES
NEAR THE INTERFACE BETWEEN CLOUD COVER AND RECENTLY CLOUD-FREE AREAS
GENERALLY FROM SWRN PANHANDLE TO LUBBOCK TO SNYDER. DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST COUNTERACTING EFFECT FROM MOIST SOILS ON
THE CAPROCK. EITHER WAY DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO MATCH THAT OF
RECENT DAYS AND WILL LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY.

TUESDAY OFFERS OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN PART DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BECOMES
OVERNIGHT AND HOW QUICKLY SAID CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES AS WELL AS
ABILITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RECOVER AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH.
MODEL PROGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE POSSIBLE MID-AFTN WITH
A FAIRLY WEAK CAP AS TEMPS PUSH INTO THE LOWER 80S. MODELS CONTINUE
TO PAINT SOME QPF AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AS THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS AWAY FROM THE WET ONE OF THE LAST TWO WEEKS. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN REASONABLE ESTIMATE OF EXPECTATIONS.

LONG TERM...
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT BUT NOT
NECESSARILY DOMINANT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK UNTIL THE HIGH
PHASES WITH AN APPROACHING TROF/LOW FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH FRIDAY STEM FROM A LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS WY. THE LOW
WILL OPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND THE RESULTING TROF WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD JUST BEYOND REACH OF THE FA. WHILE LIFT WILL NOT BE
DRAMATIC BY ANY MEANS...ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST
HELP DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THE TROF WILL TAKE A MORE
POS TILT AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WILL KEEP JUST
ENOUGH LIFT AROUND FOR A FINAL RUN AT ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY.

BY THE WEEKEND A LOW NEAR THE NW PAC COAST WILL HAVE MOVED INLAND.
GLOBAL MODELS BY THIS POINT START TO DIVERGE ON THE FORECAST WITH
THE HANDLING OF THE LOW. THE GFS BY MONDAY HAS THE LOW NEAR 566DM
AND DIGS SOUTHWARD WHILE MOVING ALONG FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE
ECMWF OPENS THE LOW SHORTLY AFTER COMING ASHORE AND DEAMPLIFIES IT.
WHETHER THE WEATHER IS SOMEWHAT COOL AND WET OR JUST WARM AND DRY
DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  79  60  80  58 /  30  20  20  30  30
TULIA         59  80  61  81  59 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     60  79  62  80  59 /  20  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     61  80  62  80  60 /  30  20  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       62  80  63  80  60 /  30  20  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   62  80  62  80  61 /  30  20  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    62  80  63  80  61 /  30  20  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     60  85  65  85  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
SPUR          63  83  65  83  62 /  20  20  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     63  85  66  85  63 /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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