Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 302315

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
515 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

VFR will prevail.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/

The upper level pattern will quickly transition to zonal westerly
flow tonight and continue Thursday. A dry airmass will dominate
while a very modest surface low pressure trough in the Texas
Panhandle tonight will sag into the South Plains on Thursday. In
spite of increased flow aloft, the surface pressure gradient will
relax Thursday and winds will be less than today. Mild air will
overspread the area as well. Tonight appears likely to be seasonally
cool, then we should warm slightly above normal Thursday afternoon.
A few high cloud wisps seem certain. Thursday will be a fine day
for the majority of outdoor activities. RMcQueen

The main focus in the extended remains on the prospects for
precipitation Friday into the weekend, with a little wintry
precipitation still not out of the question across the northwest
zones, though overall NWP guidance has trended slightly warmer.

The system that will help induce the moisture return and eventual
precipitation chances is still forecast to dig toward the Baja on
Friday. In advance of the developing system Gulf moisture will be
returning northward through Central Texas. As this occurs, clouds
will quickly fill in from southeast to northwest across the FA
through the day on Friday with rain chances also on the uptick. The
best chance for a few light showers will initially be confined to
the southern/southeastern counties Friday morning, though they will
gradually expand over most/all of the CWA by late Friday into
Friday night as moist isentropic upglide peaks. There may even be
enough elevated instability to support a few thunderstorms across
the Rolling Plains Friday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, a cold
rain should be the dominate precipitation mode. The exception may
be across the southwest Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains
where there a couple of the models (NAM and ECMWF most notably)
cool the lower levels enough to raise some concerns for frozen
precipitation (either snow, sleet or freezing rain) Friday night
into Saturday morning. However, it should also be noted that the
NAM produces very little to no QPF over this same area so whatever
falls there would likely be of little consequence. That said,
given the uncertainties in the thermal profile, we have continued
to maintain a light wintry mix over the northwest zones in the
deterministic gridded forecast.

Rain chances may gradually dwindle from northwest to southeast by
Saturday evening as the low-level forcing wanes and the upper level
low remains well off to the southwest over/near the Baja. This lull
in precipitation may last through much of Sunday, but rain chances
should renew Sunday evening into at least early Monday as some form
of what remains of the upper level storm system ejects east-
northeastward and passes nearby. Again, in general, it looks like
temperatures will be mild enough to support a cold rain though the
far northwest zones could again be just cold enough to support a
little wintry mix should any precipitation fall there. Dry weather
will then follow the system late Monday into Tuesday before the
next upper trough is progged to swing out of the Rockies and into
the plains. The more northern track of this system will likely
keep precipitation chances low, but not zero, Tuesday night into
Wednesday. However, this system will allow some chilly air to
plunge southward over the western part of the continent and into
the area by Wednesday, though it does not appear that the cold air
will stick around more than a couple of day.

Before then, temperatures will trend cooler Friday and Saturday with
abundant cloud cover and precipitation in the area. Highs will
likely struggle to make it far into the 40s Saturday afternoon. A
warming trend will follow on Sunday, though whether or not we clear
out will dictate how great this warming will be. Temperatures should
recover back to around or slightly above average early next week
before the next dump of colder air by mid-week.




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