Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 172017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
317 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Models have been struggling all day with the coverage and timing
for any possible storms this afternoon into tonight. If there is
any consensus, it is for storms to move across the Texas Panhandle
and possibly into the northern Rolling Plains this evening into
tonight with another area possibly near the TX/NM state line. One
other area to watch is the remnants of the cold front which is
roughly along an Aspermont, Spur, Floydada, Plainview, to Tulia
line. This is a rough guess as surface pressure fields do not show
the frontal zone very well, but enhanced cumulus development on
visible satellite and a subtle change in wind direction seem to
show this feature well. East of that line, surface winds are out
of the east while more out of the south to southeast west of the
aforementioned line. Will keep low end chance PoPs across the
northern South Plains and northern Rolling Plains where models
have been more consistent with generating convection, and slight
chance PoPs across the rest of the forecast area for any
development along or near the old frontal boundary and convection
developing across eastern New Mexico.

Precipitation chances will continue to decrease and temperatures
warm a few degrees more Friday through Sunday as the ridge builds
over Texas and possibly directly overhead by Sunday. Beyond this,
forecast will depend on a tropical wave the models have pushing
into the central Texas Gulf Coast sometime early Tuesday Morning.
heights will start to fall in response to the approaching wave on
Monday but we will see little in the way of impacts to
temperatures. Chances for precipitation will return back to the
forecast along the TX/NM state line on Monday afternoon as monsoon
moisture starts to try and work back to the east and weak
disturbances move around the western side of the ridge. Forecast
for Tuesday through the end of this cycle remains a bit uncertain
as the ECMWF pushes the ridge out across the AZ/NM border region
while the GFS keeps it closer to us. Regardless, we should see
increased moisture both at the surface and aloft with the tropical
wave moving across south/central Texas. Heights will also come
down some which should allow highs to fall a few degrees below
normal with mid 80s for the Caprock and low to mid 90s for the
Rolling Plains.





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