Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 281942
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
242 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
VERY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO...STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH BETTER THUNDER CHANCES EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY AS
WEST TEXAS REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STOUT UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONTINENT. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THIS FLOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY HIGHER
TERRAIN CONVECTION ORIGINATING OVER NEW MEXICO TO PROPAGATE OVER
THE STATE LINE AS IT IS DIRECTED SOUTHWARD. INSTEAD...WE WILL HAVE
TO RELY ON CONVERGENCE ALONG A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS WELL AS A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM THIS BOUNDARY INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MODEST INSTABILITY
/MLCAPES OF 1500 J/KG/ COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF STRONG STORM...WITH A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BRINGING THE RISK OF GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS. IF STORMS CAN FORM THEY WOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD...POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING THE NORTHWESTERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE LIKELY DIMINISHING. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND ISOLATED COVERAGE IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE... WE
HAVE CARRIED A MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION WITH POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT.

LATER TONIGHT...AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOW STORM CHANCES COULD RENEW
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AS CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE CENTERED NEAR
700 MB IS FOCUSED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION IS AGAIN LOW...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL
INHIBITION...SO WE HAVE DECIDED TO CARRY ANOTHER MINIMAL THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE MORE NOTABLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH /WEAK FRONTAL ZONE/ LIKELY SETS UP IN OR NEAR THE
NORTHERN ZONES. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ADVANCING THROUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE CAPROCK...WHERE CHANCE POPS WERE
MAINTAINED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS AND WHEN
COUPLED WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE AND PRODUCE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD EVEN ORGANIZED AS
HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY THE LAST COUPLE OF TTU-WRF RUNS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW LOWER 70S
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN ZONES. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
90 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MID-90S IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...
MODEL HAVE BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WE WILL STILL SEE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A LOW
LEVEL JET. STEADY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS WASHED OUT. THEREFORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE LACKING
UNDER THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW.

BEGINNING LATER ON TUESDAY...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD. THIS WILL SHIFT UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BY THURSDAY
EVENING THIS FLOW WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTH AND THEN BACK
NORTHWESTERLY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT WE COULD SEE SEVERAL REPEAT EVENINGS OF
NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS ESPECIALLY IF SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES PROVIDE
SOME ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  62  90 /  10  30  20   0
TULIA         65  91  64  91 /  10  30  20   0
PLAINVIEW     66  90  64  91 /  10  30  20   0
LEVELLAND     65  91  65  91 /  10  30  30   0
LUBBOCK       68  92  67  92 /  10  30  30   0
DENVER CITY   64  94  64  91 /  10  20  30   0
BROWNFIELD    66  94  65  92 /  10  20  30   0
CHILDRESS     71  96  69  97 /  10  20  20   0
SPUR          69  95  66  93 /  10  20  30   0
ASPERMONT     71  96  69  97 /  10  10  30   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/01



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