Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 291743
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1243 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. TSTM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING MAINLY W OF AMA-TXO-HOB LINE. INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...KCDS MAY SEE SCT STORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL BUT
INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION PRECLUDES EXPLICIT MENTION ATTM.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
GIVE RISE TO BONAFIDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL MAXIMIZED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IT IS
CLEAR THAT THE JET CORE/MAX AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL BE PLACED WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THIS DOES
NOT MEAN WE WILL NOT SEE ANY LIFT THIS FAR SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LIKELY CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE
EVIDENCED BY FORECAST Q-VECTOR FIELDS. AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE BEST LIFT WILL
ESCAPE THE AREA...WE WILL STILL SEE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED FROM COLORADO INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. POINTS
FARTHER SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE MORE BROKEN ACTIVITY.

MORE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED IN NEW MEXICO CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. VALUES ARE PROGGED IN MODELS TO BE ON THE
ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE AND WILL
COME CLOSE TO BECOMING UNCAPPED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS AROUND
30-40KT THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SEE POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LONG TERM...
INITIAL UPPER LOW WILL BE FAR TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING...
BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE BROAD CYCLONIC CURVED FLOW OVER THE REGION
ALONG WITH SEVERAL WEAK FAST-MOVING IMPULSES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS WELL WITH SLIGHT DEEPENING CENTRAL
SOUTH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN EDGED INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS MAINLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH
ALSO WILL BE IN PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE STRETCHED
ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES LATE TUESDAY AND MAINLY ROLLING PLAINS BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE ENERGY LEVELS SHOULD RAMP UP ACROSS
CENTRAL ZONES LATE TUESDAY...APPROACHING 2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM...
WHILE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE 30-35 KNOTS. THIS MAY BE
ADEQUATE FOR A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA AND WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER LATE WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHILE DRY AND VERY WARM AIR ENVELOPES THE REGION TO
THE WEST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND WE
HAVE EDGED MAXIMUMS UP ANOTHER NOTCH. GRADUAL DRYING WILL WORK ITS
WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A SHARPER TROUGH
EXPECTED TO PASS MIDDAY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THURSDAY GIVING A SHARPER NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. CHILLY MORNING FRIDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN SATURDAY BEFORE
WARMING MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  81  54  83  54 /  30  10   0   0   0
TULIA         58  83  58  86  56 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     59  82  59  86  56 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     59  83  59  87  56 /  20  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       62  83  61  87  57 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   60  85  61  87  56 /  20  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    59  85  62  88  57 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     64  87  65  93  63 /  20  20  30  20  20
SPUR          61  85  65  91  64 /  10  20  30  10  10
ASPERMONT     64  88  68  93  69 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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