Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 142341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
641 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

VFR with light southerly winds trending variable after sunset.
Very isolated SHRA and TS about 60W of PVW at 630 PM will drift
NW and remain well outside of the terminals. Could see spotty TS
redevelop Sat afternoon, mainly near CDS.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/

Gulf moisture associated with an inverted trough across the Big Bend
area is slowly pushing northward and eroding mid level dryness that
has been present for some time over the FA. Monsoonal moisture
extending northeastward out of NM has remained mostly in place
through the day across the northwestern TX Panhandle. Dewpoints are
beginning to very slowly climb higher mostly across our southern
zones as convective outflow pushing northward from a decaying MCV
south of Midland. The slight increase in moisture as well as low
level instability is being show by late morning development of a CU
field that has limited vertical development. WV imagery shows a hint
of a weak disturbance across the northern half of the FA which is
helping to produce isolated showers along an area of weak surface
convergence. The HRRR appears to be picking up on this and does show
some popcorn showers through 00Z across much of the region.

The upper ridge dominating the western half of the CONUS will
flatten over the weekend as an upper level trough pushes across
Canada. This will weaken the ridge allowing for slight height falls.
This will give us a window of possibility for unorganized convective
development mainly by Sunday. A cold front currently across the
central Plains to is progged to push slowly southward as the ridge
weakens with the front approaching western OK by tomorrow afternoon.
Outflow from convection along the front could be enough to trigger
isolated to widely scattered storms across the northern Rolling
Plains by tomorrow evening. The forecast for storms on Sunday still
remains unclear and will ultimately depend on convection that may
occur tomorrow. Surface lift will be dependent on remnant outflow
boundaries and forecasting their locations is anything but possible.
Rain chances will be continued area wide for Sunday with the highest
pops (chance) across the Rolling Plains closest to the previously
mentioned front.

Next week will start off with increasing thicknesses as the ridge
fully builds back in overhead thus hindering most rain chances. The
ECMWF and GFS continue to differ with the upper level pattern by mid
week with the GFS keeping the upper ridge mostly in place leaving us
high and dry. The ECMWF is much more forgiving with the ridge
pushing eastward allowing monsoonal moisture to push eastward into
the FA. This would allow for "cooler" temperatures as well as
continued rain chances.




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