Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 292040
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
340 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AS MODELS WERE SHOWING AS EARLY AS A FEW DAYS AGO...ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS ARE STILL A LITTLE CHAOTIC OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT A
BOUNDARY IS LIKELY IN THERE AND LOOKS TO ATTEMPT TO BE SURFACING
BISECTING THE FA FROM WEST TO EAST. BECAUSE OF THIS...A LOW LEVEL
THETA-E AXIS HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF NEAR THE OLD BOUNDARY. MIXED
LAYER INSTABILITY IS ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUED LACK OF SHEAR WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY COVERING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA HAS DEVELOPED SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MOISTURE AT
MID LEVEL MAY DETERMINE WHICH STORMS WILL HAVE MORE LONGEVITY. MID
LEVELS HAVE BEEN DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH TODAY WITH THE BEST MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. UPPER RIDGE WILL
EXPAND OVER THE REGION TOMORROW SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OR JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE STILL
REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE. FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WHICH WILL HELP KEEP STORMS FROM
DRIFTING TOO FAR EAST. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOWARDS THE END
OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO WHICH MAY WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME STORMS TO FINALLY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
BETWEEN THE CANADIAN...GFS...AND ECMWF MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
STRENGTH OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDDLE GULF COAST AND THE
STRENGTH OF A TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. WILL LEAVE
POPS ALONE UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND LOWS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS WELL.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  90  63  93 /  10   0   0  10
TULIA         62  91  61  92 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  90  63  93 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     64  90  63  92 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       65  91  65  95 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   63  90  64  92 /  20   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    65  91  66  93 /  20   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     67  94  68  99 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          67  95  66  96 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     70  97  68 100 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14


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