Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 140401
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1101 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014


.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND IFR CONDITIONS AT
KLBB LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH CEILING PROBABLY REMAINING IN THE
5OO TO 1000 FT RANGE. AT THIS POINT...BEST IFR CHANCES WILL BE
AFTER 07Z THOUGH AN EARIER ONSET IS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE AROUND MID SUNDAY MORNING. SOME DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KCDS LOOKS TO PRIMARILY
REMAIN VFR THOUGH AN EXCURSION INTO MVFR TERRITORY IS POSSIBLE
TOWARD SUNRISE.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SUNDAY WILL FEEL PLEASANT COMPARED TO ANOTHER RAW DAY TODAY. THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY FORCING FOR THE REST OF TODAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY.
THE DAYTIME TOMORROW WILL ROUGHLY BE THE SAME AS TODAY WITH
POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL NOT LIKELY
AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
UNTIL THEN...LIFT WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ABNORMALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FOR MID SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LESS CLOUDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL GARNER SOME RETURN OF INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH CAPES
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE SATURATED SOUNDINGS. MODELS PROG
INSTABILITY VALUES ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA ARE SHOWN TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED
WITH LOW STRATUS HANGING INTO THAT AREA FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
MODELS TAKE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTH TEXAS AND ROTATE
IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CAP SOME AND A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE
EXTRA LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE. COVERAGE IN THE MODELS IS A
BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COINCIDES WITH A ROUGH TRACK OF
THE PROGGED SHORTWAVE.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY WITH THE MODELS ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUT OF THE 12Z RUNS...
THE NAM WAS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. THE
ECMWF WAS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TIMING BUT WEAKER WITH THE PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. REGARDLESS...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
FRONT STARTING TO MIX OUT LATE TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL START
TO TAPER OFF AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE DEEP TROF FORECASTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST AND THE SLOWLY MOVING HURRICANE ODILE. RIDGE WILL
BUILD TO THE WEST OF US BY THURSDAY BUT BEYOND THAT MODELS ARE
REALLY STRUGGLING WITH HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW IT HAD IN THE 00Z RUN AND KEEP
THE RIDGE IN PLACE/CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. GFS NOW FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SWINGS A TROF OUT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES BY THE SAME TIME FRAME...OPPOSITE OF THE 06Z RUN.
SO...LEFT LAST 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST ALONE UNTIL WE SEE HOW
THINGS UNFOLD.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  77  57  79  58 /  10  20  10  30  30
TULIA         52  79  59  81  59 /  10  10  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     53  77  60  81  60 /  10  10  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     55  75  60  81  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       57  76  62  80  63 /  10  20  20  20  40
DENVER CITY   55  70  61  81  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    55  73  62  81  63 /  10  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     58  81  64  84  64 /  10  10  20  30  40
SPUR          57  77  63  84  66 /  10  10  20  30  40
ASPERMONT     58  80  66  85  67 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26




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