000
FXUS64 KLUB 152041
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...
A NUMBER OF CONTRIBUTING AND COMPLICATING FEATURES TODAY...THOUGH
THE SURFACE DRY-LINE HAS BECOME EVIDENT FROM NEAR LEVELLAND THROUGH
TAHOKA TOWARDS GAIL AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE DRY-LINE WITH A BACKING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD THAT WILL MOISTEN
YET ALSO COOL. SO...SIDED WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS FAVORING THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT TO STEER MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DRY-LINE
AREA THOUGH RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE AS WELL FURTHER NORTH. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS VALID
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH STEERS OFF TO THE EAST WHICH CONTRIBUTES TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTY OF POTENTIALLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...THOUGH THE SURFACE
DRY-LINE SHOULD MORE CONFIDENTIALLY FILL A NARROW ZONE NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL OR EAST-CENTRAL ZONES. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS ZONE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. LITTLE DISAGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES THIS GO-AROUND.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES
THE MIDSECTION OF THE NATION FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE HOTTEST
DAY SO FAR THIS SPRING WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S...WITH EVEN LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HOPEFULLY LUBBOCK CAN STAY BELOW THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY...WHICH
SITS AT 101 DEGREES /SET IN 1996/ THOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL.

THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE MOIST SECTOR CAPPED. THIS MAY CHANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...HEIGHT FALLS WILL
SUPPORT A STOUT SOUTHERLY LLJ EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MUCH/ALL OF THE FA.
HOWEVER...BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
MIX/ADVANCE TO NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. WEST OF THE DRYLINE ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE WHILE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DRYLINE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS
COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON EXACTLY WHEN THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE A
DECENT SHOT OF STORMS LATE SATURDAY...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
IMPROVING SHEAR SUPPORTING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WINDING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LEAD WAVE WILL LIKELY SHUNT
THE DRYLINE /COUPLED WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT/ EAST OF THE CWA
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER. THINGS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH ON MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER WARM...DRY AND BREEZY DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A STORM
SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UNFORTUNATELY...CURRENTLY IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW.

AFTER PEAKING FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE WEAK PACIFIC
FRONT EARLY SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STILL...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  94  58  96  59 /  10  10  10   0  10
TULIA         57  95  57  98  61 /  20  20  20   0  10
PLAINVIEW     57  95  61  98  64 /  20  20  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     57  96  61  98  64 /  20  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       57  96  63 100  67 /  20  20  20   0  10
DENVER CITY   59  96  59  96  63 /  20  10  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    58  97  60  98  64 /  20  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     62  92  65  98  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          60  95  62 100  65 /  20  10  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     64  96  64 102  68 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23