Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 262319 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE OPPRESSIVE UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN. THE SAID RIDGE HAS FLATTENED A BIT COURTESY
OF AN UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS SRN MANITOBA. DESPITE THE
DE-AMPLIFICATION...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 24-31 DEGREES C HAS PROVIDED
THE REGION WITH ANOTHER HOT DAY...AS TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK TO UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGITS OFF THE CAPROCK. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION
AND A NEARBY SFC TROUGH HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO. RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT THE ACTIVITY FROM IMPINGING ON THE CWA LATER THIS
EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE /UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
SW TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/ WITH LOW
CONCERNS OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEING MET...GIVEN ANTICIPATED
HEAT INDICES AOA 100 DEGREES F ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS /WHICH IS BELOW THE 105 DEGREE F CRITERIA/. CONCURRENTLY THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE DIVING SE TOWARDS
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILST ITS ASSOCIATED SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/NRN TX PANHANDLE.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXHIBITED NORTH OF THE
FA...THOUGH A SWRD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD PUSH INTO OUR NRN
ZONES AND PERHAPS PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SAID LOCALES
TOMORROW AFTN...WITH POPS INCREASING MORE SO AFTER THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD /TOMORROW EVENING-TOMORROW NIGHT/ AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE REGION. FURTHERMORE...DUE TO S-SE SFC WINDS...TEMPS TOMORROW
WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 90S TO
LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THOSE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LATE THIS
PAST WEEK. AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO INITIATE
MONDAY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT EXTENT AND DURATION WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED BY CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LONG-LIVED UPPER RIDGING AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTH AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW STATIONED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TUESDAY. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
MORE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION...HELPING TO BRING STORMS FIRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NEW MEXICO INTO THE LONE STAR STATE.

WHILE ANY UPPER DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS
TIME...TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT MAY BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AS AN APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
PROVIDES INFLOW INTO ANY ONGOING CONVECTION. THE SAME STORY HOLDS
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AS PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MAY BE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO APPROACH BY THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WARRANTED. FLOW THEN APPEARS AS
IT WILL VEER TO SOME DEGREE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS PUSHING THE RIDGE BACK EAST COME LATE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES PERSIST BETWEEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE PRESENT BEGINNING FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  94  66  86  65 /  10  20  20  30  30
TULIA         66  95  67  85  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  95  67  86  66 /   0  10  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     69  96  69  89  67 /   0  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  97  71  88  68 /   0  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   67  96  70  92  67 /   0  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    66  97  70  91  68 /   0  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     70 101  72  88  70 /  10  20  20  30  30
SPUR          69  99  73  91  70 /   0  10  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     74 100  74  94  72 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14





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