Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 281752
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1252 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR Conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. Light and
variable winds will gradually organize to the east-northeast as a
weak cold front moves through late this afternoon and evening. We
should also see increasing cloud cover from the southwest above
approx. 20k ft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR with variable winds, but mostly under 11 knots. A weak front
will backdoor into the area later today. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A warm and dry day with light winds is on the way, as an upper level
ridge axis continues overhead. Various amounts of mostly thin high
clouds will spread over much of the time aided by shearing aloft,
but still relatively weak lift. So for today anyway these high
clouds probably won`t significantly impact high temperatures. A weak
front will backdoor into the area from Oklahoma early this evening.
Temperatures in advance of this front should be somewhere around 5
to 8 degrees warmer than normal. Modest northeast breezes will
accompany the frontal passage this evening, probably just a little
stronger than indicated by the blended solutions. Tonight will be
seasonably cool, in the 40s/50s. Fog later tonight seems highly
doubtful; if this scenario were later in the fall patchy fog might
be more likely.

RMcQueen

LONG TERM...
Ridge axis hovering over West Texas will keep stable, warm and dry
weather in place through the weekend into next week. Guidance
shows some mid level moisture working north under the ridge late
Friday through Saturday but any precip activity should remain
anchored to the mountains in New Mexico though cloud cover could
modify highs slightly lower, so went with cooler trend in GFS.
Winds on Saturday afternoon will become breezy in response to
weak pressure falls on the lee side of the Rockies in SE CO.

Not much consistency in GFS/ECMWF with regard to next
system arriving for the beginning of next week. Latest 00z ECMWF
introduced a sharper - negatively tilted trough breaking out
precip across most of our area Tuesday while the GFS produces a
strong, dynamic but broad trough that would bring more fire wx
concerns than precip potential. Fortunately we have the great
weather through the weekend to wait out those details.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

33



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