Area Forecast Discussion
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412
FXUS64 KLUB 221125
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
625 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.AVIATION...
IFR ceilings working northward through KLBB toward KPVW will be
interupted at times by showers working eastward making for a
tricky forecast in the near term. TS not out of the question with
this batch of precip, but confidence is low and have left out for
now. Ceilings should rise to MVFR category by late morning. Better
chances for precip come late afternoon into evening at all three
terminals. Have introduced a PROB30 group at each.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

RAP and IR satellite analysis showed a large upper level low
pressure center spinning over the US/Canadian border along the
Minnesota state line this morning. This low is large enough
currently to be dominating much of the flow in the CONUS minus the
extreme western CONUS where a ridge of high pressure is beginning to
build. Smaller shortwave disturbances are rotating in the flow
around this low creating areas of thunderstorms and heavy rain, such
as that seen in Laredo, TX today.

One such shortwave is set to traverse eastern NM into West Texas
later today, firing off a round of convection. Steering flow should
be sufficient to move storms eastward keeping any training storms
(i.e. flooding threats) to a minimum. However, there is the chance
that some storms this afternoon and evening will become severe. The
environmental setup from RAP analysis for this afternoon looks like
this: CAPE 1500-2000 J/kg, bulk shear at least 40 kt, mid-level
lapse rates ~8 degrees, dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s...all
great ingredients for big storms. One caveat today will be the cloud
cover. Should we see too much cloud cover, diurnal heating will be
quashed. One other caveat, models are showing a jet max crossing
just slightly to our south across the Permian Basin late this
afternoon and evening. All said, though, believe with the amount of
moisture and available energy, the potential still exists for a few
severe storms with large hail and damaging downburst winds. The
event won`t be done with just one round, though. A cold front will
be driving southward overnight, and storms are expected to fire
ahead of this feature. Models are even agreeing on post-frontal
shower activity through at least noon on Tuesday. By Tuesday
evening, though, the front will have driven out the last of the
moisture, and we will enter a dry spell that looks to last into the
weekend. Ridging builds in for Thursday making for an extremely
rapid warm-up into the upper 90s for much of the forecast area. In
fact, a few models are hinting at the triple digit mark for that
day, which would make for nearly a 20 degree heat-up in 24 hours.
Slightly more zonal flow returns for Friday, but that does little to
relieve the heat. As a trough approaches on Saturday, somewhat more
seasonable temperatures return, but we certainly have been spoiled
by the cool weather...and summer is not far away.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

74/07



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