Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 251737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1137 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Breezy
southwesterlies may develop later this afternoon at KPVW and


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

VFR will be the rule with increasing high clouds late in the TAF
cycle. Light winds early this morning will shift around to the
south this afternoon and increase into the 10-15 knot range.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

Surface ridging sprawling the plains will keep temperatures on the
cool side of average again today. Winds will return to a southerly
persuasion this afternoon as the center of the surface high shifts
to our east. Even with the return of southerly winds and full
insolation temperatures will only peak in the lower to middle 50s. A
seasonably cool night will follow though a gradual increase in mid-
high clouds downstream of an approaching but weakening upper level
disturbance coupled with veering low-level flow will keep lows about
10 degrees above this morning.

A series of shortwaves will help carve out a large trough across
the western states in the extended, but will do little for our
area aside from bringing a period of breezy periods Sunday through

The first wave will be approaching West Texas late in the day on
Sunday. As it approaches, a weak front will be moving southward
through the plains toward our forecast area. There will be a bit
of a battle between the front and strengthening W-SW flow Sunday
afternoon - which lowers the confidence in our forecast for temps
and winds. West winds should increase across much of the Caprock
to the west and south of the front Sunday afternoon, but at this
time do not appear to get very strong. Sunday`s highs should be
mainly in the 60s to low 70s, but we`ll likely see at least some
small temperature adjustments according to just how far the front
progresses. Upper-level moistening is also likely to result in
mostly cloudy skies for much of the day Sunday.

The first shortwave departs east Monday but upper flow will begin
to strengthen again as an upper-level jet overspreads West Texas
downstream of the next, stronger shortwave moving through the
Great Basin and desert southwest. Backing mid-level flow will pump
up heights and thicknesses across the region and temperatures
should warm into the 70s with southwest winds becoming breezy
again in the afternoon. This trough is forecast to pass across the
area late in the day Tuesday and Tuesday afternoon is where we
have the highest uncertainty in wind speeds. Guidance shows high
variability in this period, ranging from winds in the 15 to 25
mph range to the 30 to 40 mph range. An upper-level jet looks like
it may be positioned favorably to support the higher wind speeds,
but the timing may be off and cloud cover may play a role as
well. We will ply the middle road at this point, but acknowledge
that stronger winds are a possibility. A cold front will drop
through the area on Wednesday and bring a solid 20 degree or so
cool off to start out March. Meanwhile, energy may cut off into a
closed low around the Gulf of California late in the week, with
dry west- northwest flow across our area to close out the work

The approach of a weak upper-level storm system late in the day
Sunday may spur the development of breezy W-SW winds across the
western and southern South Plains, which in conjunction with a
very dry airmass will likely elevated the fire danger. The
elevated danger will spread across across the entire forecast area
on Monday although the low-levels may moisten just slightly. Fire
concerns will peak on Tuesday as a stronger upper-level storm
system passes across the region. Wind speeds are expected to be
higher Tuesday afternoon however there is quite a bit of
uncertainty in the details at this time.




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