Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 052044
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
344 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE COMING DAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
RAMP UP INTO BREEZY RANGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ON THE
CAPROCK...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
ALIGNED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED HEIGHT GRADIENT
ALOFT AS WELL. SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE A WEAK IMPULSE LIFTING
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY WITH SOME LEVEL OF
HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...MAY
ALLOW FOR ARRIVAL OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY SOUTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CONTINUE TO RAMP UPWARDS...ALTHOUGH STILL ONCE
MORE WE EXPECT JUST ENOUGH DECOUPLING IN LOWER LEVELS FOR TYPICAL
COOL SPOTS TO DROP AGAIN BELOW GUIDANCE LEVELS. FRIDAY HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE UPPER PARTS OF THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIN HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE APPARENT...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE EVENTUALLY MOVING OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
WIND SPEEDS AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...THOUGH
LATEST TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF ON OVERALL STORM COVERAGE LOCALLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EARLY ON IT DOES APPEAR A WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY APPROACH
AND PASS IN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE LACKING...BUT
IT COULD BRING ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. WE
COULD EVEN SEE A LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION SHIFTING INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS WEAK WAVE PASSES. AFTER A
BREEZY FRIDAY WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTH OF THE LOW A
DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN AS IT LIKELY ADVANCES TO OR EAST OF THE I-27/US-
87 CORRIDOR. IT DOES STILL APPEAR THE BULK OF THE LIFT WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE COULD
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
MAY BE LARGELY LACKING...THE DRYLINE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOCALLY. AS ALLUDED TO
ABOVE...THE LATEST NWP IS FAR FROM OVERWHELMING WITH THE
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IN THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
DOES STILL HAVE SPOTTY QPF AND WARRANTS MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE EXPECTED DRYLINE
POSITION. MOISTURE RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE
SLOW...BUT DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE NEAR THE 50 DEGREE MARK BY LATE
SATURDAY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MUCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...AND WHEN
COUPLED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-50 KT...THE ATMOSPHERE
WOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS SHOULD STORMS
FORM.

THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL THEN SURGE EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS EVEN STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AS THE NEXT
PIECE OF THE WESTERN LOW ADVANCES TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE DRYLINE TO RACE OFF THE CAPROCK AS
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS /LIKELY SUSTAINED AT 25-35 MPH/
ENVELOP THE SOUTH PLAINS...COMPLETE WITH PATCHY BLOWING DUST. BY
LATE SUNDAY BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE...WITH MORE ROBUST SEVERE CONVECTION POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE FA WITH ONLY OUR FAR
EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST ZONES AT RISK OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. THE
DRY WESTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD EVEN FURTHER EAST AS THE WESTERN
TROUGH EMERGES OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
WEST OF THE DRYLINE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT GREENING FUELS
SHOULD TEND TO MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER.

LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH A LATE WEEK FRONT AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING
MOISTURE COULD RENEW RAIN CHANCES BY LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD NOW APPEAR TO RESIDE ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF AVERAGE WITH ONLY MINOR COOLING AS THE MEAN TROUGH PASSES
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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