Area Forecast Discussion
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468
FXUS64 KLUB 211751
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1251 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
THE STRATUS LAYER IS BREAKING UP A BIT AT LEAST ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST CORNER AND MAY REQUIRE AN UPDATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A BIT MORE SUN AND POSSIBLY WARMER. OTHERWISE WE STILL ARE
BANKING ON THE COLD AIR AND STRATUS DOMINATING ON THE CAPROCK IN
PARTICULAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PASSING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AT THIS TIME ARE ON
SCHEDULE. BETTER WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING EASTERN ARIZONA AND
EASTERN SONORA WILL ARC MORE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD LIFT MILDER AIR ABOVE THE COLD DOME
LEADING TO INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT
KPVW AND KLBB...PERHAPS WILL GET A FEW BRIEF BREAKS BUT SHOULD NOT
CLEAR THE CEILING OUT. LOWER LEVELS SHOULD MOISTEN FURTHER THIS
EVENING WITH FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. IFR AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE EVENING SPREADING
OVER KCDS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN THESE CATEGORIES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO A MORE STABLE MVFR DECK BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL
DAY. INTO THIS EVENING MAINLY BEYOND 00Z...RAIN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT LOWERING OF CIGS BACK
TO THE IFR CATEGORY. DIMINISHING VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY ALSO OCCUR
WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN FLIGHT ICING WILL LIKELY
BECOME A CONCERN ABOVE 9KFT AMSL AS THE COLUMN SATURATES THIS
EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL TREND TOWARD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY
THIS EVENING AS STORM SYSTEM GYRATES FROM NEAR KSFO TO NEAR KSNA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH LITTLE DOUBT...MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS VERY POORLY HANDLED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH PUSHED THROUGH YESTERDAY MORNING AND HAS SETTLED NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE TO OUR SOUTH.  GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE VERY LITTLE
CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL NOT HANG AROUND
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AND AM VERY CONTENT WITH EMBRACING THE SUGGESTIONS MADE BY
THE CONSRAW/MAV/ECM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AGAIN TODAY WITH
PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

NOW TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS INCREASED
ACROSS THE REGION AND SCATTERED SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS.  DZ TO -RA LOOKS TO
CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY
INDICATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE STRENGTHENS WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AROUND THE 300K SURFACE
PEAKING AROUND 06Z FRI.  HOWEVER...THE ASCENT BECOMES A BIT MORE
PARALLEL TO THE ISENTROPE GRADIENT THUS WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DIMINISHING SHRA COVERAGE TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
SPLIT FLOW UA PATTERN THUS RESULTING IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS/EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
NEARING/PASSING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS....WILL RESULT IN THE
CONTINUED THINKING OF AN ACTIVE RAINFALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING NE TO ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING-FRIDAY
MORNING...WILL GIVE RISE TO SCATTERED TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
FLEETING...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE ITS
NEWRD TRANSLATION HENCE EXITING THE REGION. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE COURTESY OF PERSISTENT S-SE SFC WINDS AND
HENCE ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /PWATS OF 0.80-1.30 INCHES/...AS
WELL AS THE DRYLINE ACROSS ERN NM AND A LIFTING WARM FRONT BOTH
SERVING AS FOCUS FOR CI. IF THERE IS ENOUGH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND CONSEQUENTLY
INSTABILITY...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD APPROACH STRONG TO SEVERE
LEVELS. CONCURRENTLY...AN UA PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS SRN CALI AND EVOLVE TO A BROAD AND POSITIVELY TILTED
UA TROUGH. ONCE AGAIN...A LEAD SHORTWAVE IS PROJECTED TO IMPINGE OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING BACK
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. BY SATURDAY
AFTN...THOUGH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION...THE
DRYLINE WILL RETURN TO ACROSS THE TX/NM BORDER/ON THE CAPROCK AND
AGAIN...IF DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION IS ADEQUATE...STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS COULD BECOME REALIZED. SUNDAY AFTN MAY BE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE DRYLINE /AND ANY ASSOCIATED
STRONG STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP/ IS PROGGED TO PUSH TO ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

THE SPEED OF THE UA TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC WITH
RECENT MODEL RUNS...AS THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST WITH IT /EAST OF THE
FA BY MONDAY NIGHT/...THEREBY LEADING TO MEMORIAL DAY PERHAPS
BEING A BIT STORMY...VERSUS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS /EAST OF THE
FA BY SUNDAY EVENING/....THOUGH IT DOES EXHIBIT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEARING THE REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY WHICH WILL ALSO RESULT IN STORM
CHANCES /POSSIBLY STRONG STORMS/. THUS...SOME FINE DETAILS STILL
NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT BUT WILL HOLD ON TO MENTIONABLE POPS ON
MEMORIAL DAY. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A DRIER DAY DUE TO FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENING OUT TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW...THOUGH THE DRYLINE REMAINING
ACROSS THE AREA COUPLED WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COULD AID
IN THE GENERATION OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY MID-LATE
WEEK...RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN BY WAY OF DRY LINE CONVECTION
AND/OR ANOTHER PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE NEARING THE REGION. CAN NOT
ARGUE WITH THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION INDICATING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ATTM.

ALL IN ALL...THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUED TO SHOW A SWATH
OF 3.00-5.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS STRETCHING FROM THE SW SOUTH
PLAINS TO THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS...VALID FOR 00Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z
NEXT THURSDAY...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE /1.25-3.00 INCHES/.
IF THE PATTERN DOES INDEED UNFOLD TO EQUATE THESE RAINFALL
TOTALS...THE CONSIDERATION OF FLOOD HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE WARRANTED.

TEMPS WILL START OFF COOL IN THE EXTENDED /60S WITH A FEW 70S
FRIDAY/...BUT GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW 80S BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND...AND WARMER STILL BY NEXT WEEK /80S/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  66  56  74 /  70  30  70  50
TULIA         50  64  57  73 /  70  50  70  50
PLAINVIEW     51  65  58  73 /  70  50  70  50
LEVELLAND     50  67  60  76 /  70  40  60  50
LUBBOCK       51  66  60  75 /  70  50  70  50
DENVER CITY   50  71  61  77 /  70  30  60  50
BROWNFIELD    51  69  62  77 /  70  40  70  50
CHILDRESS     55  65  61  73 /  70  60  50  60
SPUR          55  68  63  75 /  70  60  50  70
ASPERMONT     58  71  65  77 /  60  70  50  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05



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