Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 222231 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
531 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

TSRA is expected to affect the DHT TAF site through the early
evening. Any other storms are expected to remain west of AMA and
GUY. Low clouds in the MVFR range should start working their way
northward and should affect the AMA TAF site fist and then the DHT
TAF site by mid day. More showers and thunderstorms should start
to move toward the DHT TAF site by mid day as well, so have
inserted a prob30 group there. Winds will stay fairly gusty
through the forecast.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

No major departures have been made to the forecast, other than to
trim pops in eastern sections tonight and Saturday.  Threat for
heavy rain will be a concern beginning Saturday afternoon and
continuing through Monday.

Full-latitude mid-level trof over western CONUS expected to
continue moving east, maintaining a positive tilt through at least
Tuesday . As stronger mid- and upper-level flow moves into
western sections and spreads eastward, favorable dynamics will
assist in the production of showers and thunderstorms.  Low
levels will also respond with southerly low-level jet of 35 to 45
knots continuing to pump moisture into the area through Sunday.
Deep and rich moisture will be in place by Saturday evening.

Cold front expected to move into northwest half of forecast area
Sunday night and Monday, with a final push Monday night placing
the front south of the Texas Panhandle.  Threat for heavy rain
should end in post-frontal airmass, but lower levels expected to
remain very moist as upslope flow and isentropic lift generate
widespread clouds with chances for additional precipitation Monday
night through end of forecast.  Much cooler conditions also
expected Tuesday through Friday with high temperatures mainly in
the 60s.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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