Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 142349 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
549 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

For the 00Z TAFs, clouds will slowly decrease tonight as the upper
level low pressure system moves further away from the region.
Surface winds will become southwest by mid morning Friday and
remain from that direction through the afternoon hours as a
surface trof of low pressure develops over eastern CO southward
into ern NM. No precipitation is expected through late Friday



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 258 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...Light snow that fell this morning across parts of
the Oklahoma Panhandle has turned into virga showers as a cold
front sags south across the region. Cold air advection with
northerly winds around 15 to 25 MPH, along with cloudy skies, is
aiding in keeping temperatures in the lower 40s northwest to lower
50s southeast. Skies should start to clear as subsidence with
associated shortwave trough moves across the region, which will
allow for overnight lows to drop into the teens and lower 20s

Winds will shift back to the southwest on Friday as a lee side
trough develops east of the NM Rockies and high pressure passes to
our southeast. This will help with temperature recovery, as high
temperatures on Friday will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than
today. Wind speeds will be about 10 to 20 MPH with higher gusts,
with drier conditions across the region. Lee side cyclogenesis and
lee side trough will occur on Saturday, which will bring even
stronger southwesterly winds (around 20 to 30 MPH with gusts to 35
MPH) and similarly dry conditions. Fire weather concerns exists in
this period, which will be detailed in the fire weather discussion

By late Saturday into early Sunday, a cold front will pass over
the Panhandles with moisture advecting in ahead of the frontal
boundary favoring the eastern and southeastern Panhandles. At this
point, the trends in model guidance bringing precipitation to
those areas Sunday afternoon is a recent development with this run
and will be one that needs to be monitored. Have held off with
mentionable weather at this point until more confidence can be
gathered about Sunday`s system. Should more moisture and better
agreement with dynamics of this system can be gleamed, PoP chances
may need to be introduced late Sunday and Monday. Beyond this
period, dry conditions will prevail through next Thursday with
breezy conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday. We will be
monitoring a possible pattern change starting next Friday (Dec
22) that may be worth watching for Christmas holiday travelers.


AVIATION...Previous Discussion...
18Z Issuance...VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy
north winds today as clouds move through the area. Snow has
stopped and is not expected to produce any more issues. Winds
should calm this evening.


FIRE WEATHER...Elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions may develop on Saturday due to a developing lee side
cyclone and trough. Southwesterly downsloping winds of 20 to 30
MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH will help bring drier air into the
Panhandles, with relative humidity values around 14 to 20 percent.
These weather conditions combined with record dry fuels may
present favorable conditions for fire spread should any fire
starts occur. Beyond this period, elevated conditions are possible
next Wednesday and Thursday as another strong weather system could
approach the region with southwesterly winds.


CLIMATE...With this morning`s measurable snowfall in Guymon, OK,
the dry streak that prevailed for this location for the last 69
days has ended. The record for longest period without measurable
precipitation still stands at 72 days set back in 2009.

Pampa`s record breaking dry streak continues at 65 days with no
measurable precipitation measured so far today. The previous
record for longest dry streak was 60 days set back in 1991.

Amarillo`s dry streak continues at 61 days with no measurable
precipitation measured so far today. The current record for
longest dry streak is 75 days set back in 1957.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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