Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 251134 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
634 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
For the 12Z TAFS, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminal sites
through 12Z Thursday.
.Prev Discussion... /Issued 438 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/
The Panhandles will get a chance to dry out a bit today as mid level
heights rise, bringing on 90s, and the dryline pushes east into
western Oklahoma. A shortwave moving through the upper level trough
to the west will swing through the area Thursday. This coupled with
the dryline`s retreat into the eastern Panhandles will allow the
eastern zones to see a chance for precip again. With moderate
instability, dew points in the mid 50s, and steep mid level lapse
rates, severe weather will be possible. Forecast soundings indicate
the threat would likely be an early afternoon event with elevated
thunderstorms, leading to threats for large hail and damaging winds.
The dryline should push further east into Oklahoma during the evening
and take the threat of severe weather with it.
The mid level closed low in the desert southwest pushes into southern
Kansas Friday. This will keep the dryline in Oklahoma but brings wrap
around moisture on the backside of the surface low. Thus the northern
area will have a chance for some showers and general thunderstorms
Friday. A cold front will glide through the Panhandles Friday night
into Saturday morning and bring another chance for some showers and
thunderstorms during the day on Saturday.
Up until Sunday, the models are all in pretty decent agreement for
timing and locations. However, on Sunday, the models start to
diverge. The dryline begins to retreat into the Panhandles and
moisture returns along with enough instability from a shortwave for
storms to again become severe. Further updates as we get closer will
be needed to determine better specifics. The extended period from
Monday through Thursday next week looks similar with the dryline
hanging out somewhere in the Panhandles and more shortwaves pushing
through the area, along with another front possible on Wednesday.