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000
FXUS64 KAMA 191912
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
212 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A weather system is already starting to move moisture across the
panhandles today which can be seen with the ample cloud cover this
morning. As the upper level trough associated with this system
moves further eastward through today it will draw even more
moisture into the southern plains including the panhandles leading
to this evening being cloudy. The dynamics and instability
associated with the trough will form and organize the moisture
into rain showers starting Saturday morning. The overall
trajectory of this system has a high chance of keeping higher
moisture amounts to the south of the panhandles. This setup means
the probability of getting any rain showers will be higher in the
southern panhandles (upwards of 90%) and lower the further north
in the panhandles you are located (down to 15%). Likewise the
rain showers that do reach the panhandles have a higher chance to
be light and lead to small accumualtions of rain. The southern TX
panhandles have the higher accumulation range of 0.1 to 0.3 of an
inch of liquid while the north TX and OK panhandles have a small
accumulation range of 0 to 0.05 in of liquid, assuming that rain
even occurs where you are located. There is a small chance of 5 to
15 percent that isolated embedded thunderstorms can occur for
Saturday morning in the southern TX panhandle. These thunderstorms
are not expected to become strong much less severe as the
dynamics of this system barely supports any thunder. Really the
thunderstorms would be primarily localized producers of higher
rainfall amounts over anything else. Going into later afternoon
hours of Saturday this weather system will already start to depart
drawing down what moisture actually made it to the panhandles.
This will see the rain showers and thunderstorms become more
scarce and lighter through the afternoon and evening before
ceasing. The passage of this system will bring additional cold
air across the panhandles leading to lower highs and lows. As the
radiative cooling will be poor frost is not expected to occur for
Saturday morning. However for Sunday morning there will be colder
air in place that may allow for a brief window of freezing
conditions in the OK and northern TX panhandles. A Freeze Watch is
in effect for this time as freezing temperatures will pose a
hazard to plants for the start of the growing season.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Next work week has the potential to feature an active weather
pattern for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. After a mostly
quiet start to the new work week with increasing high
temperatures, the pattern could turn more active which features
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday will be a day to
watch in particular as there are signals that severe thunderstorms
may make a return to the region.

Sunday through Tuesday will feature northwest flow at H500
eventually becoming westerly. This pattern is not the most
favorable for precipitation chances for our region so the early
part of next week should mainly remain on the dry side. However,
after a cool weekend, temperatures will start to increase on
Sunday into early next week. Highs should return to near average
on Monday and Tuesday as H850 WAA returns to the area. Highs for
next week have continuously changed over the past few days so will
continue to let the NBM go for now. There may be some potential to
increase highs for portions of the area in later forecasts.

By Wednesday morning, the next system that may impact our part of
the CONUS should be moving onshore. The H500 center of low
pressure will continue to move east throughout the day on
Wednesday into Thursday. As expected, model guidance varies on the
track and strength of this feature, but the overall track at this
time seems favorable for the return for precipitation chances,
mainly for the eastern Panhandles. Thursday will be the day to
watch this week, as model guidance suggests a dryline will set up
somewhere across the Southern Plains on Thursday afternoon. As
expected, the dry biased GFS has the dryline further east and the
EC has it located further west at the time when storms may begin
to form. Ensemble means are also all over the place so pinpointing
any exact position is next to impossible at this point and will
need to be monitored over the coming days. LREF mean PWAT values
are on the higher side of climatology (75th percentile or higher)
so if storms form, they could be efficient rain producers. In
addition, ample instability would be in play east of the dryline
for severe thunderstorms. NBM PoPs have come up with the 19/13z
run so at least more models are starting to hint at this
possibility for precipitation. Temperatures late this week should
rise into the upper 70s to low 80s.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions persist at all terminals and across the panhandles
through this evening. Late today and more so Saturday a weather
system will impact the panhandles bringing rain showers and low
cloud decks. The low clouds may lead to MVFR conditions for the
morning hours of Saturday. The overall trajectory of this system
favors the southern TX panhandle for actual occurrence of the
rain showers and low clouds with decreasing odds for the northern
TX and all of OK panhandles. While the odds are not high enough
to reflect in any TAF there is a small chance of less than 15
percent that a thunderstorm could form Saturday morning in the
southern TX panhandle. Winds will see a slow shift through the
rest of today from the SE to E as this system begins to move into
the panhandles.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                40  52  38  60 /  40  70  30   0
Beaver OK                  36  56  34  64 /  20  30  20   0
Boise City OK              36  51  32  64 /  30  30  20   0
Borger TX                  43  57  39  65 /  30  50  30   0
Boys Ranch TX              41  54  38  65 /  40  50  30   0
Canyon TX                  40  51  37  60 /  50  90  30   0
Clarendon TX               43  52  39  58 /  40  70  30   0
Dalhart TX                 37  51  33  63 /  30  30  30   0
Guymon OK                  35  54  33  64 /  30  30  30   0
Hereford TX                40  51  37  60 /  60 100  30   0
Lipscomb TX                40  56  38  63 /  20  30  20   0
Pampa TX                   41  53  38  61 /  20  40  30   0
Shamrock TX                43  54  40  61 /  30  60  30   0
Wellington TX              45  53  40  61 /  50  70  40   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
     TXZ001>003-006-007.

OK...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
     OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...98