Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 291003
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
403 AM MDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

...Increasing chances for thunderstorms particularly out west...

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to advect moisture into
western sections of the area today...as the remnants of the
southwest U.S. upper low continues to weaken and lift out across UT
and western CO later tonight.  Thus...expect a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms today...mainly across the Continental
Divide.  Moisture remains fairly high based across the Southeast
mountains...and suspect that majority of showers and thunderstorms
will be confined to areas farther west.  Will maintain isolated pops
at best for the southeast mountains late this afternoon into this
evening. The plains will remain dry. Temperatures should cool off a
few degrees for the western areas...while remaining similar to a
degree two cooler than yesterday for the eastern
areas...particularly near the KS border where low level
southeasterly flow advects cooler airmass across the central plains
back westward into far eastern CO.

Tonight is when best forcing from the weakening system moves across
western areas...so will maintain scattered pops through the night
across the western mountains. May see a better chance for some spill
over showers to spread into the southeast mountains after
midnight...but any precipitation look spotty and light at this
point. Low temperatures should be warmer...particularly in the
mountains and valleys given greater cloud cover than past few
nights. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Friday and Saturday...An upper disturbance will track across the
Great Basin and 4 Corners region over the weekend, as SW flow aloft
sweeps moisture across Colorado. Best chances for pcpn will be found
over the mts, but isolated convection will be possible across the e
plains as well, especially on Fri. Max temps are forecast to warm
into the 65-75 degree range for the high valleys, and 70s to around
80 F for the plains.

Sunday and Monday...An upper low pressure system off the Pacific NW
coastline will dig south and move onshore on Sunday, increasing SW
flow aloft across the 4 Corners. The low will then track across
the Great Basin on Monday. This will help to dry out much of the
state, with just isolated convection possible over the mts, and
mainly the CONTDVD. Increasing SW aloft translates to strengthening
downslope winds, which will produce warmer temps both days, as well
as an increasing potential for critical fire weather conditions on
Monday. Expect high temps on 65-75 F for the high valleys, and 75-85
F for the e plains.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Long range models are fairly similar through
the extended period, with just a slight difference in positioning of
the upper low on Wed. In general, the low is expected to track
across the NW Colorado and Wyoming on Tuesday, then reach the
Dakotas on Wednesday.Pcpn chances are minimal through mid-week, with
just isolated activity forecast for the central mts and Palmer DVD.
Temps will be cooler as well under northerly flow, with max temps in
the 60s for the high valleys and 70s for the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

VFR conditions expected at the terminals...though should see
increasing high clouds through the day...with a persistent VFR CIG
tonight as cirrus shield moves in from the west.  Contdvd will see
increasing chances for showers and afternoon thunderstorms today
which will linger into tonight.  Cigs with showers and thunderstorms
over the mountains will remain MVFR today...though will drop into
the IFR category tonight across the southwest and central
mountains with some periodic mtn top obscurations. -KT

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT



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