Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 242108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
308 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES...

SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...PUB HAS HIT 84 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
RECORD OF 83 IN 2011...COS AND ALS HAVE BOTH TIED THEIR RECORDS OF
78 AND 70 RESPECTIVELY...ALSO SET IN 2011. BUT WITH AN HOUR MORE OF
HEATING TO GO THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THESE LOCATIONS TO BUMP UP
ANOTHER DEGREE. TIME WILL TELL.

WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE UPPER HIGH TO THE
SOUTH.  H7 TEMPERATURES TOMORROW LOOK LITTLE CHANGED FROM THOSE OF
TODAY. IN FACT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALOFT AND THIS COULD AID MIXING A BIT.  THUS ANOTHER
DAY OF RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED.  RECORD HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE A LITTLE WARMER (PUB...87 IN 1959. COS...79 IN 1959.
ALS...75 IN 1959)...BUT SEEMS THAT PUB AND COS COULD COME CLOSE OR
BREAK RECORDS TOMORROW.  OTHERWISE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.  WINDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD GET
BREEZY IN SPOTS.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW...BUT
WINDS DON`T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...DRY AND WARM WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NOVEMBER...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY UNEVENTFUL. THE WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING THE
LOWER 80S OVER THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS MID 80S...SINCE TEMPS ALOFT DO NOT LOOK
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE WARMER MOS VALUES...EVEN WITH
MODERATE WRLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. COULD SEE SOME MARGINALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS TUE AFTERNOON
AS RH VALUES NR 15 PERCENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

A TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY...AND
SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT QPF TO THE CENTRAL MTS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MON AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES
ERN CO. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND WOULD BRING MORE QPF...ESPECIALLY TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE NCEP
MODELS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER SYSTEM...SO WILL LEAVE BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE
POPS...AROUND 10 PERCENT...FOR THE LOWLANDS. BUT THE TREND HAS
BEEN FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP
FOR THIS AREA. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO BRING US CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WHEN WE
COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS. THE
MTS COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS...GENERALLY AN INCH OR
TWO... FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET.

WE HEAD INTO A PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT AFTER THE TROUGH QUICKLY
DEPARTS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE NERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA WED NIGHT BUT IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY...AND THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO KEEP COOLER AIR OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL AVGS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD STRONGLY OVER THE ROCKIES AND WE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STUCK IN A DRY AND WARM PATTERN...AND IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN ANY TIME SOON. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH SPEEDS
UNDER 15 KTS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT



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