Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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903
FXUS65 KPUB 260511
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1011 PM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

...Scattered Snow Showers along the Continental Divide...

Westerly flow will continue over southern Colorado for the next 24
hours.  A limited amount of moisture coming in from the Pacific will
produce scattered snow showers along the Continental Divide through
Sunday.  Local accumulations from 1 to 3 inches will be possible.

Elsewhere, generally dry but below average temperatures will
continue.  Dewpoints are running low this afternoon and relative
humidities are near critical fire weather levels.  The wind is gusty
around the area.  The winds aren`t widespread or strong enough to
require a fire weather highlight but they aren`t helping anything
either.  Pueblo radar has detected a couple of smoke plumes in the
past hour, one near Olney Springs and another near Fountain.  Winds
will be gusty in these areas for a couple more hours and then should
subside this evening.

Sunday, aside from the continuing snow showers along the Divide,
still dry with temperatures remaining below average.  Winds look a
little lighter and humidities a little higher than today so not as
much fire concern.  Regardless, fuels are dry so caution needs to
continue. The fire weather situation really won`t change much until
we get a widespread heavy, wet rain or snow.  Spotty showers that
come and go in a day really don`t help much.  Dead grass cures very
quickly when the humidity drops so low, especially when assisted
by the wind.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

Main meteorological concerns during the longer term include
pops/snow amounts, gusty winds at times, temperatures and
elevated fire weather concerns at times(especially Monday and
then again by next Saturday).

Latest longer term PV analysis, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations suggest that zonal to southwesterly upper
flow will continue over the forecast district from Sunday night
into Tuesday with incoming healthy upper disturbance initially
impacting primarily western locations with unsettled
conditions(including the potential for heavy snow and blowing snow
at times) from around noon Monday into Tuesday with precipitation
then developing/shifting into eastern locations from Tuesday into
Tuesday night.

At the surface, it still appears increasing moist north-northeasterly
to easterly surface flow should develop over eastern sections
from Tuesday into Tuesday night, helping to enhance precipitation
chances over eastern locations during this time-frame.

In addition, the highest potential for elevated fire weather
concerns during the longer term is expected Monday and then again
by next Saturday, favoring eastern locations. As always, WFO
Pueblo will monitor closely and issue Winter Weather and/or Fire
Weather highlights as warranted.

The highest potential for gusty winds over the forecast
district during the longer term should be experienced from
later Sunday night into Tuesday morning and then from Wednesday
into Wednesday night and also by next Saturday.

Finally near to below seasonal late February/early March temperatures
are anticipated over the majority of the forecast district from
Sunday night into Thursday with near to above seasonal temperatures
returning to many sections of southern Colorado from Friday into
next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1009 PM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

Dry zonal upper flow will allow VFR conditions to continue over the
KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KT



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