Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
419 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 419 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Still some lingering low clouds over the eastern mountains early
this morning, and a band of stratus has also pushed north out of NM
into the eastern half of the San Luis Valley. Overall, expect clouds
along/east of the mountains to continue to slowly decrease through
the morning, while stratus may be slow to clear out of the San Luis
Valley as weak boundary layer winds and strong inversion limit
mixing. Despite increased sun over the area today, cold air will
remain in place at most locations, with eastern plains staying well
below freezing another day. Overnight, lee trough begins to slowly
deepen as surface high pressure shifts eastward through the southern
plains. While min temps will still be below average, readings in
most areas will stay several degf warmer than 24 hrs earlier,
especially in the lee of the eastern mountains where weak downslope
winds will begin to stir.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 419 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Primary longer term meteorological issues appear to be amount of
impact system will provide the forecast district this weekend as
well as increased wind/elevated fire weather potential by Friday.

Latest forecast model soundings, longer term computer
simulations and PV/Precipitable water analysis indicate that
varying degrees of upper ridging will allow dry and warmer
meteorological conditions to prevail over the forecast district
from Wednesday into Friday. In addition, increasing winds will
allow for localized elevated fire weather concerns at times
Friday(primarily over eastern sections).

Then, unsettled, cooler and gusty wind conditions are anticipated
over the majority of the forecast district by the weekend as next
system moves across the region.

At this time, the highest potential for gusty winds during the
longer term should be experienced from Friday into at least the
weekend, while the highest potential for more widespread
precipitation is projected from Saturday into Sunday.

Finally, warmest temperatures during the longer term should be
realized Thursday and Friday(where maximum temperatures reaching
well into the 60s should be noted over many eastern locations), while
coolest conditions should occur Sunday and Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 419 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

At KALS, IFR stratus was filling the San Luis Valley early this
morning, and with strong inversion and weak mixing, clearing may be
slow to develop, with IFR cigs lingering toward 18z-19z or so before
lower clouds scatter. Once cigs break, VFR conditions then expected
for the remainder of the day and overnight.

Satellite and obs suggest patchy stratus and fog around KCOS was
continuing to decrease early this morning, and will go with a VFR
forecast for the terminal, though still a low threat of a brief IFR
cig until 15z-16z. VFR then continues through the day and overnight.





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