Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 180531
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1131 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT RANGE METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDE AMOUNT OF
IMPACT NORTHERLY SURGE WILL HAVE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
TONIGHT(ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES) AND
THEN INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL(ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT) AS CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY 00Z TUESDAY.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH PRIMARILY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS.  ALSO...AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ROAMING
OVER PORTIONS OF FREMONT...TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BELOW MID-MAY
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA...WHILE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
REALIZED ELSEWHERE.

LATEST NEAR/SHORT-TERM REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS... PV
ANALYSIS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY SURGE
WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT(ESPECIALLY OVER SECTIONS OF EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES).
ALSO...DEVELOPING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO INCOMING UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH
IS PROJECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA BY 00Z TUESDAY.
HAVE DEPICTED INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES(ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON)...WITH PRIMARY
IMPACT OF PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...PLEASE REVIEW LONGER TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

FINALLY...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD
EXPERIENCE COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WHILE REMAINDER OF
CWFA SHOULD CONTINUE TO NOTE BELOW SEASONAL MID-MAY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...ANOTHER BIG STORM ON THE WAY...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A STRONG...MOIST PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MIXED WEATHER...INCLUDING HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LOW
ELEVATION RAIN...AND THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE ON THE
PLAINS.

THE STORM WILL KICK INTO TO HIGH GEAR MONDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY
SPREADING HEAVY SNOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10,000 FEET SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...AND ABOVE 9,000 FEET NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. A WINTER
STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6
PM TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS.

WHILE IT IS SNOWING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS. WIND SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES START OUT AROUND
45-55 KNOTS AT 6 PM MONDAY...CLIMB TO 55-65 KNOTS BY 6 AM TUESDAY
AND THEN PRETTY MUCH REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS IS
A STRONG INDICATOR THAT STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO
ROTATE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT AND ON
INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN. OTHER CONCERNS
WILL INCLUDE FLOODING FROM HEAVY RUNOFF...PARTICULARLY IN BURN
SCAR AND URBAN AREAS. IF ALL GOES AS CURRENTLY TIMED BY THE
MODELS...THINGS WILL WIND DOWN TUESDAY EVENING AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER IN MOST AREAS...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY DRY. DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DISTURBANCES COUPLED
WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL GENERATE
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

NEXT POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION COULD
TRAVERSE SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM LATER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LATEST RUNS HAVE THIS SYSTEM PASSING FARTHER NORTH THAN THE
CURRENT INCOMING SYSTEM. IF THAT IS THE CASE...THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PIKES
PEAK REGION. HOWEVER...EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD THIS SYSTEM FARTHER
SOUTH. IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH...THEN MORE OF THE AREA
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION. IN EITHER CASE...THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE MORE SEVERE WEATHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH. TOO
EARLY FOR DETAILS YET. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST IN THE
DAYS AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

KALS IS FORECAST TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS EXPECTED MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
KALS MON AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS. KPUB MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY TONIGHT. SOME LOW STRATUS WL BE POSSIBLE BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING CIGS REMAINING VFR. MON
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE...BUT PCPN CHANCE
WL INCREASE IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY. AT KCOS CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE
MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT AND SHOWERS MAY BE IN THE VCNTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT. BY AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE CIGS WL RISE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY AT KCOS BUT WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY
CIGS COULD LOWER AGAIN. IN THE EVENING PCPN CHANCES WL INCREASE AT
KCOS WITH CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ058>061-063-066-068-073-075-076-080>082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28


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