Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 250502
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1102 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

UPDATED POPS FOR POTENTIAL OF ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH OF SALIDA TO PIKES PEAK TO CALHAN.
SHOULD SEE ANY ACTIVITY DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

CURRENTLY...BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS...EAST INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR
HOWEVER THERE HAVE BEEN VERY FEW ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR SO FAR.
TEMPERATURES ARE NICE ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...BOARD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  MODELS INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW
MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  MODELS ARE ALL GENERATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SPREADING THEM EAST INTO THE PALMER
DIVIDE.  GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS...THE MAIN THREATS FOR STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.  EXPECT STORMS
TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE WEAK ENERGY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND WE LOSE DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  OF NOTE...HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING.  GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND MODEST
MOISTURE...HAVE A FEELING THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE.

MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS AN UPPER LOW
STRENGTHS AND DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY.  THIS WILL FORCE FLOW MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SET UP ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE...AND SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTH MONDAY EVENING.
EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND MODEST FLOW
ALOFT...STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  LOCATIONS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO
ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH
TOWARD THE NM BORDER BY TUE MORNING AS CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE MON EVENING GIVES FRONT A NICE SOUTHWARD
PUSH. MAY SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUE MUCH OF MON
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WHERE
WEAK POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP. ON TUE...DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO COLORADO. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RETREAT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
DURING THE DAY OVER THE ERN PLAINS...ENDING UP NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER BY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABOVE
PARAMETERS...EXPECT RATHER WIDESPREAD TSRA ALL AREAS TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 40
KTS BY LATE DAY. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGF AS CLOUDS
INCREASE BY AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD...WITH SYSTEM SLOWLY INCHING INTO
NORTHWEST COLORADO BY WED EVENING. EXPECT MCS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEB WED MORNING TO GIVE COLD FRONT ANOTHER SOUTHWARD
SHOVE...LEAVING BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSRA OVER THE AREA
WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTH END OF THE LOW MAY SHUT DOWN CONVECTION ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WED...AND WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR AGAIN IN THE 40 KT RANGE...STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH INSTABILITY MAY LIMITED BY RATHER WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

GFS AND ECWMF NOW KEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO THROUGH
THURSDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION MANY AREAS. CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS THU ALL
LOCATIONS WITH AGAIN EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS LOOKING MOST
FAVORED. MAX TEMPS THU WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE STATE ON FRI...THOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP A FEW -SHRA GOING NEAR THE
EASTERN/SOUTHERN FRINGES OF COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY.
WARMING/DRYING TREND THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS FLAT UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

MAIN CHANGE TO 06Z TAFS WAS TO INTRODUCE VCTS AT KPUB AND KALS.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH PROBABILITY OF TS
IMPACTING THE KCOS TERMINAL BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z ON MONDAY.
COULD SEE INTERMITTENT MVFR-IFR CIGS IN HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS
TIME. PROB AT KPUB AND KALS IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER...BUT
THERE WILL BE ISOLD STORMS IN THE AREA WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE TAF SITES. LOOKING AHEAD...THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES
TO BE FOR TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN WIDESPREAD MDT-HVY
PRECIP AND SCT STRONG STORMS COULD AFFECT THE TAF
SITES...PARTICULARLY KCOS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE


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