Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 210527
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1127 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 607 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016

Quick update to incorporate latest obs and satellite data. Pared
back pops to just isolated over the higher terrain for a few hours
this eve, otherwise feel that the HRR is overdone. Rest of
forecast package looks good at this time, with some fog developing
and moving into portions of the e plains overnight. Moore

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016

Not many adjustments required from earlier forecast reasoning with
primary near/short term meteorological concerns for the forecast
district being isolated pops, areas of low clouds and fog developing
over eastern sections later tonight, temperatures and gusty winds at
times.

Forecast district currently graced by variable clouds, locally gusty
winds, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily to the
north of the CWFA and generally above seasonal late May afternoon
temperatures.

Recent real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations indicate that relatively dry southwesterly
upper flow will prevail over the forecast district during the next
24 hours, however enough atmospheric moisture interacting with the
daily orographic heating cycle and a passing weak upper disturbance
will be capable of generating isolated showers and
thunderstorms(some potentially strong at times), into this evening,
primarily over eastern portions of the CWFA. In addition, have
depicted areas of low clouds and fog developing later tonight over
primarily eastern portions of the forecast district.

Gusty winds are also anticipated at times during the next 24 hours,
however per recent direction of area land agencies, will refrain
from any fire weather highlights as fuels are not favorable.
Finally, above seasonal temperatures are expected to continue over
the majority of the forecast district during the next 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016

A generally dry and warm period is anticipated during this long term
forecast period as the region will be under modest southwesterly
flow aloft. I anticipate the dryline will remain primarily to the
east of the forecast area...so the probability of severe convection
is low. the only exception to this may be late in the period as the
guidance shows a stronger disturbance moving across the region
during the Thursday/Friday time frame.

for later this weekend (Sunday)...it will be quite warm...dry and
windy across the region. Meteorological conditions will be favorable
for extreme fire behavior...however after talking to the folks at
Pueblo Dispatch...fuels are not conducive to rapid spread.
Likewise...no fire weather hilites will be issued. Max temps both
days will be well into the 80s across the Plains...and a 90 or
two is not out of the question. Southwest wind gusts to 25 to 35
mph are likely.

a cold front will cross the area Sunday night...and a bit cooler
weather is expected for Monday. However...it will remain quite dry
in the low levels after fropa...and very little if any thunder is
expected over the region Monday afternoon. If thunder does
occur...it will likely be in the Pikes Peak region and central mtn
areas.

Dry southwesterly flow at lower levels will likely develop once
again Tuesday and last into Thursday. By late in the week...the
stronger disturbance discussed above will move across the region and
this may back the llvl winds enough to bring llvl moisture into the
region which may allow for thunderstorms over the plains late Thu
afternoon and possibly Fri afternoon. This disturbance late in the
week will also bring a better chance of tsra to the mtns.
/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1107 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016

MVFR conditions will be possible at KPUB and KCOS from 08-14 UTC due
to low CIGs as upslope flow across the plains will continue to
transport moisture into KCOS and KPUB terminals. Moisture
transport along with cooling surfaces will favor stratus cloud
development. All TAF sites will see VFR conditions tomorrow with
gusty winds developing during the afternoon. Wind gusts up to 30
knots will be possible. Lukinbeal/Mozley

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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