000
FXUS65 KPUB 132127
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
TSRA HAS BEEN LIMITED TO JUST A COUPLE CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES AS OF
21Z. WILL RUN WITH ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A COUPLE
HOURS THIS EVENING...THOUGH AGAIN DOUBTFUL IF MUCH MORE THAN
SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR. SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH RATHER MILD LOWS
MOST AREAS AS WARMER AIR MASS HAS BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO. ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EAST OF THE
STATE WHILE WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MODELS PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HIGH
BASED STORMS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ON THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S/30S...SO
AGAIN NOT MUCH PRECIP WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. SOME CONCERN ABOUT
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS
IN BACA COUNTY AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE...BUT WINDS IN THE TOP HALF
OF THE MIXED LAYER STAY FAIRLY WEAK AND EASTERLY...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL SOME. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WX HIGHLIGHT
FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS AGAIN LOOK VERY WARM AS MID LEVEL TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TUE NIGHT DIURNAL MT CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN WITH SUNSET...THEN MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT CLOSE AGREEMENT ON DROPPING A WEAKER DRY SFC COLD FRONT
DOWN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD SOME TIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WED. THIS
FRONT WILL SERVE TO USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON WED BUT NOT A
LOT OF ADDITIONAL PCPN INITIALLY. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTN SFC FLOW TURNS EASTERLY...PUSHING MORE MOISTURE UP AGAINST THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE AND I25 CORRIDOR WITH A THIN STRIP OF 1500 J/KG
OF CAPE THROUGH THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME...EC AND GFS MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY RIDE THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE...HELPING TO KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION
FOR THE E PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. THE NAM DOES NOT
SHOW THIS...BUT DECIDED TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE PLAINS
WHICH BETTER MATCHES OFFICES TO THE EAST. THIS WAVE SHOULD BE FAST
MOVING...AND BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A SW FLOW ON THU AS ANOTHER TROUGH
TAKES SHAPE OFF THE WEST COAST...AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS
TO DEEPEN ON FRI...PRODUCING STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS AND COLORADO. FRI LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY FOR THE CWA SAVE
FOR PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SW MTS DURING THE AFTN
AND EVE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSS THE 4 CORNERS SAT MORNING...AND
WARM DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASING WINDS WILL
MOST LIKELY PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE E PLAINS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY EVE. THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WITH THE PASSING TROUGH
SHOULD KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. THE TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SUN MORNING...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS THEN
FORECAST FOR SUN AND MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OUTFLOW FROM ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AT KCOS
AND KALS...THOUGH ANY RAINFALL WILL STAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT IMPACT THE TAF SITES. ON TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH AGAIN SOME ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS BUT LITTLE RAIN AS THEY DRIFT TOWARD
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN