Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 131609

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
909 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

Issued at 908 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

Updated to increase pcpn chances for today and tonight and some
locations, especially mtn areas, and increased snow amounts for
today over the central and sw mtns.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 421 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

Primary meteorological concern is amount of impact that closed
upper low has over the forecast district during the next 24 hours.

Forecast district currently experiencing mostly cloudy skies with
radar/satellite and surface observations indicating band of
precipitation over the southern 1/3 of the forecast district
moving to the north in combination with generally low-grade winds
and above seasonal temperatures.

Recent PV analysis, real-time data, computer simulations and
forecast model soundings suggest that closed upper low located
approximately 125 miles to the south of Tucson, Arizona at 12Z
this morning will move to southeastern New Mexico by 12Z Tuesday.

This system will allow increased precipitation chances across
many locations into this morning and have increased pops to
account for this. In addition a few inches of snow will also be
possible across many primarily southern and western locations into
this morning with snow continuing over primarily higher terrain
locations into tonight.

Overall, temperatures during the next 24 hours should run within a
category or so of mid-February climatological averages over the
majority of the forecast district.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 421 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

...Mild and Dry Much of the Week then Changes over the Weekend...

Weather pattern will revert back to dry and unseasonably warm this
week as yet another warm ridge of high pressure crosses the Rockies.
On Tuesday, there could still be a few lingering showers over the
very southern tier of Colorado and highs will only be about 5
degrees above normal.  But after that, it`ll be bone dry with highs
averaging 10-20 degrees above normal through at least Thursday.

Friday will still be very mild but some showers may start to show up
along the Continental Divide during the afternoon with more showers
possible Friday night.  Saturday will continue mild with more
showers along the Divide.  Bigger changes look to move in Saturday
night and especially Sunday when a deep upper trough of low
pressure is forecast to swing through Colorado.

The exact details of how the upper trough will affect our weather
our kind of sketchy right now.  It looks pretty certain that the
Continental Divide, particularly the southwest mountains, will see
decent snowfall, especially on Sunday.  The rest of the mountains
will see some snow, too, but precipiation will be mostly transitory
and scattered.  For the lower elevations, probably some showers
Sunday and Sunday night, but amounts look scattered and light at
this point.  The system is not very cold so it would likely be a
mixture of rain and snow showers for the lower elevations.  Could
even be a thunderstorm or two mixed in there Sunday afternoon, the
way it looks right now.

Once again, details are sketchy at this point. It`s still a long way
off.  The European model swings the trough through Colorado farther
north as an open, progressive wave.  This would still bring decent
precipitation to the mountains but it would mean lesser chances for
precipitation across the lower elevations. Still many days to track
this one. Stay tuned.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 421 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

Large upper low pressure system migrating slowly east along the
southern New Mexico border into west Texas will bring areas of snow
and rain showers to the southern tier of Colorado over the next 24
hours.  The precipitation will result in areas of MVFR, IFR and LIFR
flight conditions south of Highway 50 through 12z Tuesday as waves
of moisture move northward into the flight area.  Some showers will
hold together enough north of Highway 50 to produce local MVFR, IFR
and LIFR conditions.  Precipitation should generally clear out from
the north after 12z Tuesday.

KALS will be most impacted by the current round of precipitation.
Snow has been producing LIFR conditions there for several hours this
morning.  This will continue for a few more hours with improvement
coming after 14 or 15Z when current round of snow should decrease.
While the snow may let up allowing VSBYS to improve, CIGS may stay
down in IFR/MVFR ranges through the morning into the afternoon.

KPUB is next closest to the precipitation with current radar loops
showing showers progressing this way.  Could be dealing with some
periods of MVFR, IFR or even LIFR conditions as showers move through
between now and around 18Z.  By that time, it looks like showers
will generally weaken enough to allow CIGS and VSBYS to come up.

KCOS looks far enough north to avoid showers at this time.  Models
show any northward progressing precip bands dissipating before
reaching the terminal.  Consequently, TAF will be kept VFR for now
with updates if necessary.




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