Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171741
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1141 AM MDT Wed May 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 504 AM MDT Wed May 17 2017

...ANOTHER SPRING STORM TAKES AIM AT THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING, A NEW ONE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MOST AREAS TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
SPREADS SNOW INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT.  EARLIER MODEL
RUNS HAD SNOW DEVELOPING OVER TELLER COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER,
LATER RUNS HOLD OFF ON THAT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING AND PUSH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH.  SO, THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN.  CONFIDENCE IS A LOT
HIGHER THAT SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT.
SO, HAVE CONVERTED THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 6 PM
THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER, FOR THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY REGION,
I WILL STAY WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH STARTING AT MIDNIGHT DUE TO
THE LATE BREAKING UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.

ELSEWHERE, REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION TO TALK ABOUT
BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY SUNRISE.  THE RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER
SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION
A LITTLE AFTER SUNUP.  THEN, A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON, WHEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  A FEW OF THOSE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
START SPREADING TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
DURING THE EVENING.  WHAT HAPPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT IS A BIG QUESTION
RIGHT NOW.  ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS, SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT
WILL HAPPEN ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THIS IS
DEFINITELY A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN WAS BEING DEPICTED EARLIER BY
THE MODELS.  SO, WHETHER THE SNOW GETS GOING OVER THE PIKES
PEAK/TELLER COUNTY REGION BY MORNING IS A BIG UNCERTAINTY RIGHT NOW.
BEST TO STICK WITH THE WATCH UP THERE FOR NOW AND SEE WHAT LATER
MODEL RUNS HOLD.  THEY COULD BRING THE MOISTURE BACK SOUTH AGAIN OR
THEY COULD CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT TREND.  IF IT`S THE FORMER, THE
WATCH CAN BE UPGRADED AS NECESSARY. IF IT IS THE LATTER, WE MAY NEED
NO HIGHLIGHTS AT ALL.  JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 504 AM MDT Wed May 17 2017

Generally minimal revisions required from previous meteorological
reasoning as focus remains on the amount of impact that upper
disturbances will have on the forecast district from Thursday
into Friday night and then again from later Sunday into Tuesday
night. Primary challenges include but are not limited to
temperatures, pops, qpf, snow amounts over primarily higher
terrain locations and gusty winds at times.

Latest longer term computer simulations, PV analysis and forecast
model soundings indicate that closed upper low located over Utah
at 12Z Thursday moves into central Colorado by 06Z Friday and then
slowly shifts into northeastern Colorado by later Friday before
becoming centered over western South Dakota by Saturday morning.

This system is tracking a bit further north, which means that
primarily western and northern locations will have the highest
potential of experiencing impact conditions with this system,
therefore will continue with winter weather highlights into
Friday over these locations.

In addition, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
exists from Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening over
primarily far eastern sections of the forecast district(due to
favorable shear, lift, moisture and instability parameters),
which matches well with latest SPC Day 2 convective outlook for
Thursday.

Meteorological focus then shifts to impact several upper
impulses in combination with northerly/northeasterly surface
surges have on the forecast district, especially from later in the
weekend into next week. At this time, it appears that the most
widespread precipitation should be noted from Tuesday into Tuesday
night(including the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms).

Below seasonal temperatures are still anticipated over the
forecast district from Thursday into the weekend with temperatures
then attempting to climb closer to mid to late May climatological
averages next week. It still appears that minimum temperatures
challenging the freezing mark will be possible over many
Interstate 25 corridor locations both Friday and Saturday morning,
although several recent computer simulations have begun backing
off on the depth of the colder air during this time-frame.

Finally, the highest potential of stronger gradient winds during
the longer term are anticipated from Thursday into Thursday night
and then again by later next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed May 17 2017

VFR conditions can be expected at KALS, KCOS and KPUB thru this
evening. Gusty southwest to west winds are expected at the
terminal forecast sites into the early evening hours. By about 06Z
KCOS may have some showers in the vicinity, with the chances for
showers increasing Thu morning. Also after 06Z at KCOS, the
ceiling is expected to lower into the MVFR category and could
even become IFR toward morning along with some restrictions to the
visibility. KPUB could see MVFR ceilings and vsby by 12Z Thu with
some showers in the area. KALS may see some showers in the area by
12Z Thu and continuing thru Thu morning, however chances are too
low at this time to include in the forecast.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Friday for COZ058-060-066-068.

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon
for COZ081-082.

&&

$$

AVIATION...28



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