Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 192147

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
347 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...Windy Day Ahead...

An upper disturbance will track northeast across the area tonight,
bringing mainly just mid and high level moisture to the region.
There may be just enough low level moisture to squeeze out a few
spotty rain or snow showers over the mountains tonight. However,
nothing too widespread or intense is anticipated.  The lower
elevations, by and large, should remain dry.

On Friday, the upper disturbance will move east into Kansas, with
strong, dry westerly flow spreading in behind it.  Southwesterly
wind gusts to around 30 mph or so will be common across the area by
afternoon.  This will elevate the fire danger to near critical
levels.  Humidities will be low, too, but they should remain high
enough to negate the need for fire weather highlights.  Regardless,
it will be a gusty day with low enough humidity and dry enough fuels
to be concerned.  Outdoor burning and any other activities that
could accidentally start a wildfire should be postponed until a
better time.  With the dry, downslope flow off of the Rockies,
afternoon highs will soar once again.  Afternoon highs will end up
10-15 degrees above average over the plains and around 5 degrees
above average in the mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.Friday night and Saturday...Shortwave moves across the state
during the day on Saturday. Snow will develop over the Continental
Divide region Friday evening and continue overnight. Moisture
will be limited and system will be progressive.  Anticipate
accumulations in the range of a couple of inches, mainly over the
mountains of Lake and Chaffee Counties. As the trough moves
eastward during the day on Saturday, a cold front will move
southeast across the eastern plains. In coordination with
surrounding offices, increased wind speeds over the eastern
plains, especially closer to the Kansas border. A few snow showers
could linger over the southeast mountains during the day with
modest upslope and instability, but moisture will be very limited.

.Sunday through Thursday...Progressive pattern continues with an
upper ridge along the west coast and a mean trough over the
midwest. One shortwave will move into the midwest around Monday
night or Tuesday. Region will be on the western edge of this
weather system. Moisture will be limited and the main impact will
be some cooler weather. Another shortwave could impact the region
around Thursday. Models vary on the strength and position of this
system so temperatures could be significantly different than the
consensus solution in the grids. Models are fairly consistent
with this system being progressive and relatively dry. --PGW--


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

A weak upper level disturbance will track northeast across the
flight area tonight through Friday morning.  The disturbance will
bring mid and high clouds to the area but very little low level
moisture. There could be a few spotty showers over the mountains
tonight. Elsewhere, dry weather is expected. On Friday, as the
system departs to the east, dry westerly flow will spread eastward
across the flight area with gusty southwest winds developing at the
surface. Conditions will generally be VFR across the flight area
next 24 hours. However, local MVFR to LIFR conditions could occur
with any showers over the mountains tonight. VFR expected at the
KCOS, KPUB and KALS terminals.




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