Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 031723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBS AND UPDATED THE MORNING FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING
THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT
23 HOURS. KALS AND KCOS HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR VCSH AND
VCTS HIS AFTN AND EVE...SO INCLUDED THIS FROM 19Z-03Z. THIS IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR VCTS FOR KPUB LATE AFTN...SO INCLUDED 23Z-0-3Z.
LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO
THE N-NW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...MOORE



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