Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221059

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
459 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 459 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Thunderstorm coverage and strength the question for today, as fairly
strong cold front drops south through the area this afternoon and
evening. General model consensus is for boundary to reach the Palmer
Divide by midday, then drift south toward the Arkansas River in the
afternoon, though localized outflows from convection may shift winds
to the north rather quickly around Pueblo and Colorado Springs.
Front then races southward through the plains this evening, with
deepening upslope and cooler air spreading westward across the
plains and into the eastern mountains by sunset. Instability along
and ahead of the front is fairly low through the afternoon, and with
CAPE generally below 500 J/KG along and east of I-25, most tsra will
initially be rather sparse and high based. Past few runs of the HRRR
suggest a few stronger cells then develop behind the boundary along
the Palmer Divide 21-22z, before activity migrates eastward toward
the KS border by 00z. Conceptually, best chance for tsra over the
eastern mountains and plains would then occur late this afternoon
into the evening as moist air surges back toward the mountains.
However, most models keep CAPE across the region very low, with only
GFS developing much in the way of precip during the evening across
the region. Will keep a rather broad area of low pops in place for
the eastern half of the area this afternoon and overnight to account
for any upslope forced precip, with any tsra transitioning to
showers or patchy light rain after midnight as low level air mass
saturates. Severe threat looks limited to areas along the KS border
and perhaps near the Palmer Dvd, with gusty winds the main storm
threat given large t/td spreads and marginal CAPE. Max temps today
rather tricky with front dropping south, but in general expect most
locations to be within a couple degf of yesterday`s readings as mid
level temps remain very warm into the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 459 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Unsettled and cooler conditions are anticipated over the forecast
district from Friday into at least the weekend in the wake of a
healthy north to northeasterly surface surge which is expected to
move into northeastern New Mexico by sunrise Friday.

Increased pops and even some fog at times in combination with
cooler conditions(especially when compared to the previous few
very warm days) should be noted over the majority of the forecast
district(especially eastern sections) from Friday into the weekend
as upper disturbances interact with adequate atmospheric moisture.

The potential exists that locally heavy rain and strong to potentially
severe storms at times will be noted over portions of the forecast
district from Friday into the weekend and possibly Monday. As
always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely and issue hydro/severe
weather products as needed.

Then a return to drier and warmer conditions are anticipated next
week(especially by Wednesday) as lee-side surface troughing
develops over eastern Colorado.

Finally, coolest maximum temperatures during the longer term
should be experienced from Friday into Monday(with Friday expected
to be the coolest day as maximum temperatures should struggle to
climb into the 70s over locations such as the I-25 corridor).
Warmest temperatures during the longer term should be noted
Tuesday and Wednesday with maximum temperatures nearing and/or
exceeding 90F over many eastern sections during this time-frame.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 459 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

At KALS...VFR the next 24 hrs as most tsra will remain over the
higher terrain around the San Luis Valley. Terminal could see some
gusty outflow winds from mountain convection for a few hours late in
the afternoon.

At KCOS and KPUB...isolated tsra possible 20z-03z, with brief MVFR
and gusty outflow winds over 40 kts possible. Cold front will switch
winds to the N after 20z at KCOS and 22z at KPUB, with continued NE
upslope during the evening and overnight gradually lowering CIGS to
MVFR/patchy IFR at both terminals after 06z.





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