Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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733
FXUS65 KPUB 290550
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1150 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Currently...Upper high over the Great Basin persists, keeping light N-
NW flow aloft over the CWA. Outflow from storms in northeastern CO
and western KS this morning has pushed into the eastern plains,
reinforcing LLVL moisture for the I-25 corridor and plains. Temps
have risen into the 90s to around 100 F across the plains, into the
80s to near 90 F for the high valleys, and into the 70s for the mt
passes.

Tonight and Tomorrow...Little movement on the upper high expected
over the next 24 hrs, and there is not any definitive upper
shortwave to help kick off convective activity. What is present is a
good amount of llvl moisture thanks to the storm outflow earlier
today. This moisture along with abundant heating has sparked
thunderstorms across the eastern plains, and outflow from these
storms will initiate even more storms through the evening and into
the overnight hrs, with models indicating activity finally waning
between 09-12z. There is the indication that this moisture will also
help lower clouds to develop over portions of the eastern plains, so
included this in the aviation forecasts for COS and PUB.

After a relatively quiet morning, once cloud breaks develop and
heating commences, heating should act upon available moisture for
another round of isolated to scattered storms beginning after 18z.
Max temps tomorrow are expected to be slightly cooler for the high
valleys, but anywhere from 5-15 degrees cooler across the plains due
to a cool morning with a slower start to the heating. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

.Saturday through Tuesday..A couple of troughs will move across
the northern Rockies during this period. The flow aloft will
become west to southwest with a lee trough developing over the
plains. The lee trough will keep the very moist low level air
mostly to the east of Colorado. Plenty of convection developed
last night over the Sierra Madre with one easterly wave. Satellite
shows other easterly waves moving into northern Mexico which will
continue development of deep convection over northern Mexico.
Southwest flow should be able to tap this deep moisture and advect
it into Colorado. Anticipate moisture increasing on Sunday as
first shortwave moves to our north and southwest flow ahead of
another shortwave moving across the northern Rockies will maintain
the monsoon plume through Tuesday. With the best lower level
moisture remaining to the east of Colorado, highest PoPs and
heaviest rainfall will stay over and near the mountains.

.Wednesday and Thursday...As the trough passes to the north of
Colorado, a surface cold front could move south into eastern
Colorado. The upslope flow behind the front could increase the low
level moisture on the plains with a greater potential for
convection. With monsoon plume remaining over Colorado and an
increase in moisture on the plains, will have to watch for
increased threat of heavy rains. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Upslope easterly flow is expected to continue through Friday
morning as outflow from convective clusters pushes moisture
across the I-25 corridor. With showers and storms starting to push
eastward, the primary concern through Friday morning will be the
potential for low CIGs at KCOS and KPUB. MVFR to IFR CIGs will be
possible at KCOS and KPUB starting around 10Z.

Upslope flow is expected to continue tomorrow afternoon, with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across
the higher terrain during the late morning to early afternoon
hours before moving across the I-25 corridor. KCOS and KPUB will
likely see VCTS starting around 22/23 UTC. A few storms could be
on the stronger side and will be capable of producing erratic
gusty winds up to 40 knots and heavy rainfall leading to brief
MVFR to IFR conditions.

VFR conditions are expected at KALS over the next 24H. Gusty
erratic winds from TSRA outflows originating near the higher
terrain will also be possible at KALS. Lukinbeal

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...Lukinbeal/KT



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